Switching VARMA Term Structure Models

The purpose of this article is to propose a global discrete-timemodeling of the term structure of interest rates which is ableto capture simultaneously the following important features:(i) a historical dynamics of the factor driving term structureshapes involving several lagged values, and switching regimes;(ii) a specification of the stochastic discount factor (SDF)with time-varying and regime-dependent risk-premia; (iii) explicitor quasi explicit formulas for zero-coupon bond (ZCB) and interestrate derivative prices. We develop the switching autoregressivenormal (SARN) and the switching vector autoregressive normal(SVARN) Factor-Based Term Structure Models of order p. The factoris considered as a latent variable or an observable variable:in the second case the factor is a vector of several yields.Regime shifts are described by a Markov chain with (historical)nonhomogeneous transition probabilities. An empirical analysisof bivariate VAR(p) and SVARN(p) Factor-Based Term StructureModels, using monthly observations of the U.S. term structureof interest rates, and a goodness-of-fit and expectation hypothesispuzzle comparison with competing models in the literature, showsthe determinant role played by the observable nature of thefactor, lags, and switching regimes in the term structure modeling.     

The stability and breakup of nations: a quantitative analysis

This paper quantitatively analyzes the stability and breakup of nations. The tradeoff between increasing returns in the provision of public goods and the costs of greater cultural heterogeneity mediates agents’ preferences over different geographical configurations, thus determining the likelihood of secessions and unions. After calibrating the model to Europe, we identify the regions prone to secession and the countries most likely to merge. We then estimate the implied monetary gains from EU membership. As a test of the theory, we show that the model can account for the breakup of Yugoslavia and the dynamics of its disintegration. We find that economic differences between the Yugoslav republics determined the order of disintegration, but cultural differences, though small, were key to the country’s instability. The paper also provides empirical support for the use of genetic distances as a proxy for cultural heterogeneity.     

Development and validation of the Remote Working Benefits & Disadvantages scale

The changes that are constantly occurring in the labour sector have led organisations and companies to move towards digital transformation. This process was accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic and  conducted to a massive recourse to the practice of remote working, which in this study is understood as the term for the way of performing work outside the usual workplace and with the support of ICT. Currently, there are no flexible scales in the literature that allow measuring the benefits and disadvantages of remote working with a single instrument. Thus, the distinction between the positive and negative consequences of working remotely, substantiated by a solid literature, provides a framework for a systematical understanding of the issue. The aim of the present study is to develop and validate a scale on remote working benefits and disadvantages (RW-B&D scale). For this end, a preliminary Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) with 304 participants, a tailored EFA with a sample of 301 workers and a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) with 677 workers were conducted. Participants were all Italian employees who worked remotely during the period of the COVID-19 health emergency. Data were collected between October 2020 and April 2021. The psychometric robustness of the model was assessed through bootstrap validation (5000 resamples), fit indices testing and measurement of factorial invariance. The statistical analyses demonstrated the bifactorial nature of the scale, supporting the research hypothesis. The model showed good fit indices, bootstrap validation reported statistically significant saturations, good reliability indices, and convergent and discriminant validity. Measurement invariance was tested for gender and organisational sector. The results suggested that the novel scale facilitates the quantitative measurement of the benefits and disadvantages associated with remote working in empirical terms. For this reason, it could be a streamlined and psychometrically valid instrument to identify the potential difficulties arising from remote working and, at the same time, the positive aspects that can be implemented to improve organisational well-being.

     

The internationalization of firms in the service industries: Channels, determinants and sectoral patterns

The paper presents the results of a new survey on the international activities of Norwegian enterprises in the service industries. The survey focuses on three main internationalization channels: international sales, international cooperation and R&D outsourcing. The empirical analysis studies the relevance of these channels, and investigates the related strategies, objectives and determinants. International sales and collaborations emerge as the two most relevant channels, whereas the scope for R&D outsourcing seems to be far more limited. The analysis of the determinants of international activities leads to three main results: (1) the innovative capability of firms matters for their international performance; (2) the various internationalization channels seem to be complement, rather than substitute, strategies to compete in foreign markets; and (3) sectoral specificities greatly affect firms' internationalization strategies and performance.     

Spectrum management reform: Rethinking practices

Unparalleled growth in wireless communications has increased the pressure for more spectrum to support more users, more uses and more capacity. To alleviate that pressure, major regulatory changes were introduced in several countries in two key areas of spectrum management, namely spectrum assignment and allocation. This paper analyzes those changes and discusses strategies and tactics for deregulating the use of radio spectrum. Spectrum management reforms are considered within the theoretical framework of transition economics, which is concerned with optimal reform speed and sequencing. The paper shows how Anglo-Saxon and European countries have been implementing gradual reforms. Meanwhile, Central American reformers have chosen a fast transition from command-and-control regulation to market mechanisms. Transition economics is used to evaluate the advantages and drawbacks of different spectrum reform strategies.     

Robust implementation under alternative information structures

In this paper we consider a model in which agents have complete information about their neighbors and, possibly, incomplete information about the rest of the environment. We consider two different informational frameworks. In the first, agents do not have priors about the relevant characteristics in the rest of the environment. In the second, agents are supposed to have priors about the unknown characteristics. We present a mechanism which implements any social choice correspondence satisfying monotonicity and no veto power in both informational settings for every possible prior thus requiring little knowledge from the point of view of the designer of the information possessed by agents about the environment. The authors wish to thank J. Canals, B. Chakravorty, P. Chander, C. Herrero, G. Orosel, D. Schmeidler, W. Thomson, W. Trockel, F. Vega, A. Villar, T. Yamato and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies. The first author acknowledges financial support from the Institució Valenciana d’Estudies i Investigació; L.V.I.E. and DGICYT under projects PB/88-0289 and PB/91-0756. The second author acknowledges financial support from DGICYT under project PB/90-0156. A previous version of the paper was written when authors visited (May 1991) the Institute of Mathematical Economics (Bielefeld) to which authors are grateful.     

PROBABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY: THE LEGACY OF GEORGESCU‐ROEGEN

In this paper we consider Georgescu‐Roegen's approach to uncertainty, showing that his characterization of expectations cannot be reduced to any probabilistic decision‐making model. Drawing upon Georgescu‐Roegen's lesson a lexicographical utility function is proposed and analysed in the mark of his own peculiar scientific methodology. It is demonstrated that such a formulation can be useful in solving the usual failure of the expected utility model, such as the Ellsberg paradoxes. The epistemic limits of our re‐construction are considered.     

No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models,term premia and GDP growth

The recent macro-finance literature does not agree either about the empirical properties of the expectation part and of the term premium on long-term bonds or about the importance or even the direction of the relationship between the term premium and future economic activity. This paper proposes a two-step approach to handle both problems. First, in a VAR setting, we extract a reliable measure of the term premium by means of averaging estimator techniques aiming at optimally solving prediction problems when highly persistent processes are present and, thus, providing a so called Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) approach. Second, we analyze the dynamic response of GDP to shocks to the term premium by using the New Information Response Function concept. As far as the first problem is concerned, we find that the NCVAR-based term premium measure is rather stable and counter-cyclical, as suggested by interest rates survey-based estimation of yield curve models and by its risk compensation role. Regarding the second problem, we find that an increase in the long-term spread caused by the term premium induces two effects on future economic activity: the impact is negative for short horizons (less than 1 year), whereas it is positive for longer ones.     

Realizing smiles: Options pricing with realized volatility

We develop a discrete-time stochastic volatility option pricing model exploiting the information contained in the Realized Volatility (RV), which is used as a proxy of the unobservable log-return volatility. We model the RV dynamics by a simple and effective long-memory process, whose parameters can be easily estimated using historical data. Assuming an exponentially affine stochastic discount factor, we obtain a fully analytic change of measure. An empirical analysis of Standard and Poor's 500 index options illustrates that our model outperforms competing time-varying and stochastic volatility option pricing models.