Modelling Credit Risk for SMEs: Evidence from the U.S. Market

Considering the fundamental role played by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in the economy of many countries and the considerable attention placed on SMEs in the new Basel Capital Accord, we develop a distress prediction model specifically for the SME sector and to analyse its effectiveness compared to a generic corporate model. The behaviour of financial measures for SMEs is analysed and the most significant variables in predicting the entities' credit worthiness are selected in order to construct a default prediction model. Using a logit regression technique on panel data of over 2,000 U.S. firms (with sales less than $65 million) over the period 1994–2002, we develop a one-year default prediction model. This model has an out-of-sample prediction power which is almost 30 per cent higher than a generic corporate model. An associated objective is to observe our model's ability to lower bank capital requirements considering the new Basel Capital Accord's rules for SMEs.     

Alternative Approaches to Multilevel Modelling of Survey Non‐Contact and Refusal

We review three alternative approaches to modelling survey non‐contact and refusal: multinomial, sequential, and sample selection (bivariate probit) models. We then propose a multilevel extension of the sample selection model to allow for both interviewer effects and dependency between non‐contact and refusal rates at the household and interviewer level. All methods are applied and compared in an analysis of household non‐response in the United Kingdom, using a data set with unusually rich information on both respondents and non‐respondents from six major surveys. After controlling for household characteristics, there is little evidence of residual correlation between the unobserved characteristics affecting non‐contact and refusal propensities at either the household or the interviewer level. We also find that the estimated coefficients of the multinomial and sequential models are surprisingly similar, which further investigation via a simulation study suggests is due to non‐contact and refusal having largely different predictors.     

Trading horizons and the value of money

This paper shows that fiat money can be feasible and essential even if the trading horizon is finite and deterministic. The result hinges on two features of our model. First, individual actions can affect the future availability of productive resources. So, agents may be willing to sell for money, even if on that date they have no reason to accept it. This makes monetary trade feasible in all preceding dates. Second, agents are anonymous and direct their search for partners. So, gift-giving arrangements may be prevented because agents can misrepresent their consumption needs. This makes money essential in exploiting any gains from specialization and trade.     

Exploring the contribution of innovation intermediaries to the new product development (NPD) process: a typology and an empirical study

In the ‘knowledge economy’ upheld by the European Lisbon strategy, knowledge‐intensive services are considered a key driver for innovation and competitiveness. A category of knowledge‐intensive services that has become of utmost importance in the last few decades is new product development (NPD) services, which interconnect distant knowledge domains with the client firms. In addition to NPD service providers, web‐based innovation intermediaries have started to help innovative firms access dispersed bodies of knowledge. Despite the heterogeneity of their characteristics, however, a clear typology of the strategies used by traditional NPD service providers and web‐based intermediaries to interact with their knowledge sources and with their clients is missing. This typology would be very useful for those firms that are willing to collaborate with innovation intermediaries because it could highlight the typologies of NPD problems different intermediaries are apt to address and the managerial challenges that working with them entails. Developing such a classification framework is the main goal of this paper. The typology proposed in this paper suggests that innovation intermediaries should be distinguished based on the following: (1) the way they access their distributed knowledge sources and (2) the way they deliver value to their clients. By combining these two dimensions, four categories of innovation intermediaries are identified, which are named brokers, mediators, collectors and connectors. A multiple case study analysis involving four innovation intermediaries and 12 of their clients is presented in the paper. The analysis provides exploratory insights into (1) the typologies of NPD problems that each class of intermediaries addresses and (2) the managerial challenges that working with each of them entails. These preliminary findings call for further theoretical and empirical research into the complex interaction among innovation intermediaries, their dispersed sources of knowledge and their clients.     

The dynamic of innovation networks: a switching model on technological change

In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model where heterogeneous firms compare and modify their innovation strategies, so generating an evolving network structure. By implementing dynamic behavioral switching via a fitness mechanism based on agents’ performance, companies can endogenously modify their tactics for technological change and switch among three groups: stand-alone innovators, collaborative innovators and imitators. On the one hand, we study the properties of the emerging networks and we show that they reproduce the stylized facts of innovation networks. Moreover, we focus the analysis on the impact of these three innovation categories on the macro economic aggregate, finding that collaborative companies are those having the highest positive impact on the economic system. On the other hand, we use the model to study the effect of different economic innovation policies in increasing macroeconomic performance.     

(Un)Ethical Behavior and Performance Appraisal: The Role of Affect,Support, and Organizational Justice

Performance appraisals are widely used as an HR instrument. This study among 332 police officers examines the effects of performance appraisals from a behavioral ethics perspective. A mediation model relating justice perceptions of police officers’ last performance appraisal to their work affect, perceived supervisor and organizational support and, in turn, their ethical (pro-organizational proactive) and unethical (counterproductive) work behavior was tested empirically. The relationship between justice perceptions and both, ethical and unethical behavior was mediated by perceived support and work affect. Hence, a singular yearly performance appraisal was linked to both ethical and unethical behaviors at work. The finding that ethical and unethical aspects of employee behavior share several of the same organizational antecedents, namely organizational justice perceptions, has strong practical implications which are discussed as well.     

Relationship Lending and Credit Quality

We analyse whether relationship lending reduces borrowers’ probability of default and, if so, whether this beneficial effect also applies to borrowers who are more exposed to the economic downturn. By using unique, matched data of 43,000 firms and their lending institutions between 2008 and 2010, we document that the probability that a firm becomes distressed decreases if the creditor concentration is high and if the duration of bank-firm relationships is long. While these results appear to support the beneficial effect of relationship lending practices, we note that the organisational distance of banks also matters both as a determinant of loan distress and loan downgrading. The results are stronger for smaller firms.     

Lending technologies,banking relationships,and firms’ access to credit in Italy: the role of firm size

This paper analyses the role of lending technologies and banking relationships on firms’ credit access in Italy. Using EFIGE firm-level data, we show that the depth and strength of firm–bank relationships have heterogeneous effects on credit demand and rationing probabilities depending on the size of the borrower. Multiple banking relationships alleviate financial constraints for small firms, while borrowing from a large number of lenders hinders access to credit for large companies. Small and medium-sized enterprises with a higher share of debt with the main bank have a lower probability of being credit denied, as debt concentration contributes to overcome the opacity problems typical of the SMEs. Long-lasting relationships, by reducing information asymmetries, significantly improve access to credit for small and large firms. Conversely, we find that medium-sized enterprises are more exposed to financing constraints as relationship duration increases, due to possible lock-in effects. Finally, firms maintaining banking relationships based on transactional technologies are more likely to be credit denied, while the use of relationship lending technologies improves credit availability for both small and large enterprises.     

The Dollar-Mark axis

The Dollar-Mark Axis. — Over the last two decades, most European currencies have tended to weaken against the mark as the latter strengthened against the dollar. Moreover, the strength of the response of European cross rates has tended to remain in the same order over time. The paper first sets out the stylised facts of this phenomenon, referred to as the dollar-mark axis, and then tries to identify its determinants. In addition to exchange rate policy, the paper examines the correlation of cyclical fluctuations and trade links and the bias of international investors in the currency composition of their portfolios.     

Current Account Adjustment and Capital Flows*

We examine episodes of current account adjustment in industrial countries over the past 30 years. We find that they were typically associated with a sizable growth slowdown and a large exchange rate depreciation. There was no discernible change in the nature of capital flows just prior to an adjustment. Hence, adjustments may be responding to the resolution of domestic imbalances rather than being an exogenous event. We show that global developments triggered the adjustment, possibly by triggering the unwinding of the domestic imbalances. Most of the ex post adjustment of the financial account was in private sector flows, primarily by foreign investors.