Sisyphean Dilemmas of Development: Contrasting Urban Infrastructure and Fiscal Policy Trends in Maputo,Mozambique

In sub‐Saharan African (SSA) cities like Maputo, land commodification is predictably fueled by plans for aspirational infrastructure serving elites. What is rather more peculiar, however, is the way in which the promotion of some fiscal policy reforms can also inadvertently support land commodification and the uneven development it (re)produces. This article describes how efforts to host both democratic fiscal reforms (via localized exercises like participatory budgeting) and to tap into international capital circuits to stir economic development (via aspirational infrastructure and urban redevelopment plans) can produce a Sisyphean dilemma. While gains in ordinary infrastructure investments (e.g. wells, water pumps) were achieved democratically in Maputo's KaTembe district with the participatory budget, these material (and political) improvements have been rendered irrelevant by better funded aspirational infrastructure projects for KaTembe (e.g. bridges, high‐rise residential buildings, tourist facilities) supported by more opaque decisions made by the national government without residential input. Given the wide embrace of participatory budgeting in contexts of weak democracy across SSA cities and elsewhere, Maputo's experience serves as a timely alert of the risks run when this popular exercise is prematurely promoted, especially when wider‐scaled property tax reforms could better redress uneven and undemocratic urban development.     

Coalitional fairness in interim differential information economies

In this paper we propose a concept of coalitional fair allocation in order to solve the tension that may exist between efficiency and envy-freeness when agents are asymmetrically informed and the equity of allocations is evaluated at the interim stage.     

Detecting Common Longevity Trends by a Multiple Population Approach

Recently the interest in the development of country and longevity risk models has been growing. The investigation of long-run equilibrium relationships could provide valuable information about the factors driving changes in mortality, in particular across ages and across countries. In order to investigate cross-country common longevity trends, tools to quantify, compare, and model the strength of dependence become essential. On one hand, it is necessary to take into account either the dependence for adjacent age groups or the dependence structure across time in a single population setting—a sort of intradependence structure. On the other hand, the dependence across multiple populations, which we describe as interdependence, can be explored for capturing common long-run relationships between countries. The objective of our work is to produce longevity projections by taking into account the presence of various forms of cross-sectional and temporal dependencies in the error processes of multiple populations, considering mortality data from different countries. The algorithm that we propose combines model-based predictions in the Lee-Carter (LC) framework with a bootstrap procedure for dependent data, and so both the historical parametric structure and the intragroup error correlation structure are preserved. We introduce a model which applies a sieve bootstrap to the residuals of the LC model and is able to reproduce, in the sampling, the dependence structure of the data under consideration. In the current article, the algorithm that we build is applied to a pool of populations by using ideas from panel data; we refer to this new algorithm as the Multiple Lee-Carter Panel Sieve (MLCPS). We are interested in estimating the relationship between populations of similar socioeconomic conditions. The empirical results show that the MLCPS approach works well in the presence of dependence.     

Estimation of Armington elasticities in a CGE economy-energy-environment model for Europe

The main goal of the article is to estimate Armington elasticities of the energy and energy-intensive sectors of the GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model. The model follows the standard two-stage budget optimisation of the consumer by first optimising between domestically produced and imported goods and, then, by country of origin. A panel data econometric framework is used here with dynamic adjustment to capture both the long and short term elasticities for the studied six aggregated sectors in Europe. The estimated long-term elasticities are in line with the literature, but higher than those used in the GEM-E3 model. The results suggest that consumer choice appears to be more price sensitive between the domestic and the composite imported goods, and amongst the importers, than already assumed in the model.     

Futures options with futures-style margining in the Gaussian models setting

This paper investigates the effects of the markung-to-market on futures and futures options. Closed form solutions for the pricung of these contracts are derived under the assumption that the forward rate follows a Gaussian model. Moreover, an upper bound of the error made by computing futures option prices under the contmuons marking-to-market instead of the discrete one is provided. Numerical comparisons suggest that the marking-to-market feature is highly affect by the model chosen. In the Ho and Lee framework discrete marking-to-market futures prices turned out to be slightly different from the continuous ones; whereas in the Vasicek model differences in prices become appreciable when the mean reversion is slow and the volatility is high.

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Valutazione di contratti futures e opzioni futures nell’ambito dei modelli Gaussiani

Riassunto In questo articolo si esaminano gli effetti di marking-to-market nella determinazione del prezzo di contratti futures e di opzioni futures. Le espressioni in forma chiusa dei prezzi di questi contratti sono determinate sotto l’ipotesi che l’intensità istantanea di interesse si evolva secondo nn modello Gaussiano. Tra i contratri futures e opzioni futures su tassi di interesse a breve trartati al LIFFE, dedichiamo la nostra analisi in particolare al caso di contratti su Eurolira. Questi contratti rappresentano infatti un fondamentale strumento per iltrading e l’hedging nel mercato Italiano dove i tassi di interesse a breve mostrano alti livelli di volatilità. Confronti unmerjci vengono foruiti nell’ambito del modello di Ho e Lee e di Vasicek. I risultati empirici suggeriscono che le differenze di prezzo nel caso discreto e continuo diventano apprezzabili nel modello di Vasicek quando laincan-veversion è bassa e la volatilità è alta.

     

ECONOMIES WITH PUBLIC PROJECTS: EFFICIENCY AND DECENTRALIZATION*

The article deals with the two fundamental theorems of welfare economics for production economies with a finite set of agents, infinitely many private goods, and a set of public projects. The problem of efficiency and decentralization is addressed under the following very general assumptions: (a) the commodity–price duality is endowed with a consistent locally convex topology; (b) the set of public projects is without any mathematical structure. Moreover, any agent is characterized by a nonordered preference relation depending on consumption goods and public projects. Approximate and exact welfare theorems are discussed throughout the article.     

What if Variable Annuity Policyholders With Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefit Were Rational?

This article examines the lapse risk inherent to the guaranteed lifelong withdrawal benefit option embedded in a variable annuity product valuated from a pure derivatives perspective, that is, as a Bermudian option given to the policyholder. We assume rational behavior and quantify the potential impact of the lapse risk, defined as the difference between no lapse and optimal lapsing. We develop a sensitivity analysis that shows how the value of the product varies with the key parameters, and calculate the fair fee using Monte Carlo simulations. Empirical analyses are performed and numerical results are provided.