Optimal unemployment insurance in an estimated job search model with savings

This paper estimates a job search model with savings on Danish micro data that include observations on wealth and wages. Controlling for extensive observed and unobserved worker characteristics heterogeneity, the estimation relates observed unemployment spells to the model implied hazard rate for each worker. The model estimates are sensible and fit the data well. Optimal UI policy is determined in the estimated model as a trade-off between insurance provision and distortion of search incentives. The analysis emphasizes an important policy sensitivity to the interest rate and the importance of including transitional dynamics in the analysis.     

Coalition Stability in Public Goods Provision: Testing an Optimal Allocation Rule

We test the canonical model of international environmental agreements (IEAs) in a laboratory setting with asymmetric agents. IEA participation represents coalition formation and public good provision where there are gains to cooperation, but an incentive to free-ride. We test four competing methods of dividing the coalition’s worth: a recently proposed optimal rule which accounts for subjects’ payoffs as a single free-rider, the Shapley value, the Nash bargaining solution, and an equal split. Each treatment generates the theoretically predicted coalition size more often than not. The shares of the potential gains to cooperation achieved by each rule are: 51, 36, 40 and 13%, respectively. These results highlight the importance of using an optimal rule to improve IEAs, and more broadly for voluntary public good provision.     

Inefficient Education Spending in Public School Districts: A Case for Consolidation?

This article estimates scale economies for Arkansas school districts. Large economies of scale exist in teacher salary and supply costs, as well as total costs. The results suggest that districts, especially rural districts, would experience measurable cost savings from consolidation. The authors simulate a hypothetical rural school district consolidation to obtain cost-saving estimates from consolidation. Simulations indicate that districts could save an average of 34% in average variable costs. At the state level, consolidation of rural districts in Arkansas could annually save $40 million. However, consolidation of school districts may increase various implicit costs to students and local communities. (JEL I22 , I28 )     

Methods for Handling Dropouts in Longitudinal Clinical Trials

This paper focuses on the monotone missing data patterns produced by dropouts and presents a review of the statistical literature on approaches for handling dropouts in longitudinal clinical trials. A variety of ad hoc procedures for handling dropouts are widely used. The rationale for many of these procedures is not well-founded and they can result in biased estimates of treatment comparisons. A fundamentally difficult problem arises when the probability of dropout is thought to be related to the specific value that in principle should have been obtained; this is often referred to as informative or non-ignorable dropout. Joint models for the longitudinal outcomes and the dropout times have been proposed in order to make corrections for non-ignorable dropouts. Two broad classes of joint models are reviewed: selection models and pattern-mixture models. Finally, when there are dropouts in a longitudinal clinical trial the goals of the analysis need to be clearly specified. In this paper we review the main distinctions between a 'pragmatic' and an 'explanatory' analysis. We note that many of the procedures for handling dropouts that are widely used in practice come closest to producing an explanatory rather than a pragmatic analysis.     

Beyond medicine : Health challenges and strategies in the 21st century

The future of health involves much more than the future of medical care since the major factors affecting health are environmental, social and economic ones. Health has generally improved in the past century, but the continuation of this trend is threatened by population growth, urbanization environmental change, poverty, inequity, war, existing communicable and chronic diseases, and possible new ones. New policies and strategies emerging to deal with these challenges include the formulation of healthy public policy, investing in health, and the development of new structures and processes of governance. Integrated national studies focused on human well-being and environmental health are one means through which the futures field could contribute to the improvement of health in 21st century. Visioning workshops and other participatory futures activities are equally important, since they enable people and communities to take part in the definition and achievement of their preferred health futures.     

SPECIALIZATION AND FLEXIBILITY CONSIDERATIONS IN A POLYPERIOD FIRM INVESTMENT MODEL*

A 20-year polyperiod linear programming model was developed for a representative eastern Nebraska farm maximizing discounted net returns. The objective centered on determining optimal investment behavior under varying livestock prices. A constant-price model employed constant hog and cattle prices while two cyclical-price models were based upon a 10-year cattle and a 5-year hog price cycle. The initial restrictions were 320 acres, $10,000 of capital, and 2080 hours of labor. Programming activities included crops, swine, cattle feeding, long- and short-term capital borrowing, labor hiring, land purchase, and other features. Four specialized cattle facility investments were included varying in their capital and labor requirements and length of asset life. Both conventional and environmentally regulated swine facility investment activities were included. In addition, a flexible livestock facility investment was provided should the optimal operating strategy include year-to-year adjustments between swine and cattle. The results for the constant-price and cyclical-price models followed a trend of early large swine investments followed by increasing land ownership. Solutions to the three models did not include cattle feeding nor the flexible livestock facility investment. A slight response to the hog price cycle was observed in the timing of hog investments when the constant and cyclical-price models were compared. Un modèle de programmation lineaire, comportant plusieurs périodes échelonnées en vingt ans, a été développé pour une ferme représentative dans ?esl du Nebraska. Ce modèle escomplait des revenus nets maximum. ?objectif viséétait de déterminer quelle serait la meilleureforme ?investissement dans un cas où le prix de bétail subirait des variations. Un modèle à prix fixe utilisait des prix stables pour le pore et le bétail, alors que deux modèles a prix cyclique etaient bases sur une echelle de prix de dix ans pour le bétail et cinq ans pour le pore. Les restrictions initiates etaient les suivantes: 320 acres, un capital de $10,000. et 2,080 heures de travail. Les activités de programmation incluaienl les recoltes, le pore, ?empruni de capital à long el à court terme, ?emploi de la main ?oeuvre, ?achat de terrain, el ?autres caractéristiques. Les investissemenls incluaienl quatre installations specialisees pour le bétail, variant selon le capital, la main ?oeuvre requise el la durée de vie. Les activités ?investissement incluaienl des installations pour le pore à la fois conventionnelles et conformes à des règles ?envi-ronnement. De plus, un investissemenl flexible était prévu pour une installation du bétail, venant le cas où la meilleur stratégic dans les opérations incluerait des ajuste-ment annuels enlre le pore el le bétail. Les résultats obtenus G partir des modèles a prix constant et à prix cyclique ont demontré une tendance à des inveslissemenls précoces el abondants dans le pore, suivis ?un accroissement dans la possession de terrain. Les solutions des trois modèles n'incluaienl ni la nutrition du bétail ni ?investissement flexible pour une installation du bétail. Lorsqu'on a comparé les modèles a prix constant et cyclique, on a pu observer une faible réaction au cycle de prix du pore, selon le moment choisipour investir dans le porc     

Information for health futures research : Guide to published and on-line resources

Most published material relevant to health futures research is not clearly labelled as such, so health futurists can be frustrated in their quests for information until they learn some searching techniques. Many books, reports and articles do exist, however, about epidemiological patterns, technological trends and transitions in health-care systems, about behavioural, environmental and social factors affecting health, about the goals and strategies of pharmaceutical companies, health-care providers and other actors, and about many other futures-related aspects of health. Information seekers are likely to be successful as long as they give adequate attention to what kinds of information should be sought, employ well thought-out search terminology, and make use of a variety of information technologies. Essential local information resources for health futurists are the computerized catalogue, reference and secondary literature, and CD-ROM indexes of a research library. On-line best bets include the National Library of Medicine OPAC, WHOLIS, DDBS at IDRC, and Uncover at CARL. Other health-related Internet resources can be identified through the subject trees at Rice University and BUBL, Netlink at Washington and Lee University, and WWW subject trees such as the WWW Virtual Library.     

Controls and Cooperation in Interactive and Non‐Interactive Settings

Prior research finds that controls that induce cooperation among collaborators on a project increase trust, and that this increased trust increases subsequent cooperation among collaborators. We extend this work by investigating how controls influence cooperative behavior in two settings. The first is an interactive setting where people work together and can benefit from each other's work. The second is a non‐interactive setting where people do not work together directly but where behavior can be observed. We propose that because controls are likely to engender greater trust and reciprocity in interactive settings than in non‐interactive settings, the effect of controls on future cooperative behavior will be greater for controls in interactive settings than for controls in non‐interactive settings. We find that controls in both settings increase future cooperative behavior, but the effect is significantly greater in interactive settings (where reciprocity and trust are more likely to develop). Furthermore, this increased cooperation is observed in an uncontrolled task, suggesting that the control fosters trust in others rather than trust in the control. These findings suggest that the benefits of controls are more substantial in work environments characterized by extensive teamwork and where employees benefit from each other's work.