An option pricing approach to the valuation of real estate contaminated with hazardous materials

This paper uses option pricing to examine how the presence of hazardous materials affects real estate value. The property owner has two options. The first option is to remove the hazardous materials at the best time. The second option, embedded in the first one, is to redevelop the property at the best opportunity. The owner has three possible timing strategies with respect to the exercise of these two options: remove the hazardous materials first and retain the option to redevelop the property later, remove and redevelop at the same time, or do nothing. Conditions under which the presence of the hazardous materials may either expedite or postpone the decision to redevelop are also derived. If the regulatory environment does not allow the property owner to make optimal timing decisions with respect to the exercise of these options, then our results provide an indication of the cost of regulation as measured by the additional loss in property value.     

Supply Adjustments to Demand Shocks in the Commercial Real Estate Market

This paper contributes a theoretical investigation of real estate supply adjustments in the commercial real estate market. Simple theoretical linkages between the goods market (the demand side) and the space market (the supply side) are developed and then used to explain the optimal supply decisions of space producers. Propositions relating to how space production decisions are made under conditions of demand certainty, demand uncertainty and free entry are derived from optimization models. Under demand certainty, the adjustment of space supply is shown to be affected by whether an exogenous shock is perceived as mild or disastrous. Under demand uncertainty, construction based on pent-up demand is shown to be suboptimal.     

Education and saving:: The long-term effects of high school financial curriculum mandates

Over the last 40 years, a majority of states have adopted consumer education policies, and a sizable minority have mandated that high school students receive instruction on topics related to household financial decision-making. In this paper, we attempt to determine whether these mandates have had any effect on subsequent decisions. We exploit the variation in requirements both across states and over time to identify the effects of interest. The evidence indicates that mandates have raised both exposure to financial curricula and subsequent asset accumulation once exposed students reached adulthood. The estimated effects are gradual, probably due to implementation lags.     

Market responsiveness, top management risk taking, and the role of strategic learning as determinants of market pioneering

This study investigates managerial and organizational factors associated with engaging in a market pioneering strategy. Specifically, top management risk taking and the firm-level capability of market responsiveness are hypothesized to be associated with market pioneering. Additionally, strategic learning self efficacy is hypothesized to moderate the effects of top management risk taking and market responsiveness on market pioneering. Moderated regression analysis based on data collected from 111 manufacturing firms supports the hypotheses. Top management risk taking and market responsiveness positively predict the use of a pioneering strategy. Strategic learning self efficacy makes market pioneering more palatable to risk-averse top managers who might not otherwise engage in pioneering. Finally, strategic learning self efficacy strengthens the relationship between market responsiveness and market pioneering. Implications for future theory, practice, and research are discussed.     

Heterogeneity distributions of willingness-to-pay in choice models

We investigate direct and indirect specification of the distribution of consumer willingness-to-pay (WTP) for changes in product attributes in a choice setting. Typically, choice models identify WTP for an attribute as a ratio of the estimated attribute and price coefficients. Previous research in marketing and economics has discussed the problems with allowing for random coefficients on both attribute and price, especially when the distribution of the price coefficient has mass near zero. These problems can be avoided by combining a parameterization of the likelihood function that directly identifies WTP with a normal prior for WTP. We show that the typical likelihood parameterization in combination with what are regarded as standard heterogeneity distributions for attribute and price coefficients results in poorly behaved posterior WTP distributions, especially in small sample settings. The implied prior for WTP readily allows for substantial mass in the tails of the distribution and extreme individual-level estimates of WTP. We also demonstrate the sensitivity of profit maximizing prices to parameterization and priors for WTP.

Inferno: A guide to field experiments in online display advertising

Online display advertising is a hostile medium for field experiments. Display-ad effects are tiny and necessitate large-scale experiments. The experimenter has limited control because ad exposure is jointly determined by advertisers, users, algorithms, and market competition. As such, online display ads provide useful lessons for experimenters at the frontier of digital research more generally. Display-ad experiments place renewed focus on old topics like statistical power and compliance as well as on newer issues like identity fragmentation, experimental spillovers, and incrementality optimization. In this guide, I review these challenges, best practices, and new developments.     

Home gardens,household nutrition and income in rural farm households in Odisha,India

Home gardens have been an integral part of the recent food-based interventions aimed at stimulating changes in dietary patterns and improving nutrition. However, evidence of their effects on food security, dietary quality, child anthropometry and incomes is limited, particularly among vulnerable populations groups. Using panel data from a sample of approximately 1900 households from vulnerable population groups in Odisha, India, difference-in-differences and other econometric techniques, we analyse the effects of home gardens on food security, dietary quality, child anthropometry and income. On average, home gardens contribute to better household food security, higher dietary quality of men and women but do not contribute to higher children's dietary quality and anthropometry. Also, home gardens increase monthly per adult equivalent incomes by 37% and reduce the prevalence of poverty by 11.7 percentage points. Quantile regression results suggest that home gardens enhance food security and incomes in all quantiles, but richer farmers benefit more than poorer farmers. Overall, home gardens can enhance household food security, dietary quality of men and women, and income gains among vulnerable farming population groups, but they may not suffice to improve child dietary quality and anthropometry.     

The organization of volunteer battalions in Ukraine

When war broke out in Eastern Ukraine in 2014, the government of Ukraine failed to provide adequate defense to maintain its territorial integrity. In the wake of this government failure, several private volunteer efforts arose to meet popular demand for military action against Russian-backed Separatists. These volunteer battalions had to find alternative methods of aligning their incentives with the population wishing to be defended, and alternative methods of aligning the incentives of their leadership and their recruits. The success of these battalions depended on the potential for political careers and favors, the strength of reputation mechanisms in small communities, and the potential for loot and spoils. These factors shaped the size, characteristics, and activities of the volunteer battalions.