SECTORAL ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION AND RETURNS TO SCALE IN SOUTH AFRICA

Elasticity of substitution and returns to scale are estimated on a sectoral basis for South Africa using panel-based generalised least square procedure. Apart from sectoral differences in terms of elasticity of substitution, the study found that elasticity of substitution is below unity in all of the sectors. Most of the sectors studied are found to have increasing returns to scale in production. The study further explores the implications of elasticity of factor substitution and returns to scale on growth and employment creation. It is argued that a greater number of jobs can be created from growth of sectors with constant or decreasing returns to scale than from the same level of output growth generated by sectors with increasing returns to scale. This is the case when the employment-creating potential of the same amount of additional output is compared in all the sectors examined. By virtue of scale economies, a sector like finance, insurance, real estate and business services generates more output with less proportional increase in inputs, which means growth in this sector may not have the desired impact on job creation. However, given the sector's large share (20%) of the country's total output and employment, it may generate more jobs, even if sectors like utilities and construction experience the same level of output growth. Given its importance for growth and employment, the study recommends further investigation into the reasons why elasticity of substitution is lower in sectors like utilities, mining and trade, catering and accommodation services.     

Agglomeration externalities: Marshall versus Jacobs

The literature remains inconclusive as to whether Marshallian specialization or Jacobian diversification externalities favor regional innovativeness. The specialization thesis asserts that regions with production structures specialized towards a particular industry tend to be more innovative in that particular industry, as it allows for knowledge to spill over between similar firms. The diversification thesis argues that knowledge spills over between different industries, causing diversified production structures to be more innovative. A closely related debate evolves around local competitiveness hypotheses. Using an original database of innovation counts, both these issues are addressed for the Dutch context. The results show that the Marshallian specialization thesis holds, though more pronounced for R&D intensive and small firms. Fierce local competition within an industry negatively affects innovativeness in that particular industry.JEL Classification: O18, O31, R10Gerben van der Panne: The author wishes to thank Fia Wunderink, Wilfred Dolfsma and Alfred Kleinknecht for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

美国金融监管漏洞对我国金融法建设的启示

由美国次贷危机而导发的金融危机自美国本土向全球蔓延,严重危害着全世界的金融安全和稳定,对全球经济也造成不可估计的损伤。然而这次金融危机的出现从深层暴露了美国金融市场的不稳定和松乱,其直接原因还是要归咎于美国金融政策的过度宽松和监管体系散漫。鉴于这次国际金融市场的动荡和金融危机的损害,我国理当有所借鉴,有所警惕,以此为例检测我国金融市场和金融法规体系,以期达到完善法律、稳定市场。     

论跨国并购中合作型劳资关系的构建

由于文化差异和利益矛盾,企业跨国并购过程中容易产生劳资冲突的问题。合作型的劳资关系强调相互理解和适应,通过平等协商、参与管理和利益分享等机制和措施,实现外国投资方和东道国劳动者的双赢。     

中外石油企业税费制度对比分析及借鉴

随着石油领域国际合作的日益密切,税收政策对石油企业的影响逐渐增大。本文通过对中外石油税费制度进行分析比较,找出我国石油税费制度存在的诸多问题,提出完善我国石油税费制度的措施。     

Modelling and predicting customer churn from an insurance company

Within a company's customer relationship management strategy, finding the customers most likely to leave is a central aspect. We present a dynamic modelling approach for predicting individual customers’ risk of leaving an insurance company. A logistic longitudinal regression model that incorporates time-dynamic explanatory variables and interactions is fitted to the data. As an intermediate step in the modelling procedure, we apply generalised additive models to identify non-linear relationships between the logit and the explanatory variables. Both out-of-sample and out-of-time prediction indicate that the model performs well in terms of identifying customers likely to leave the company each month. Our approach is general and may be applied to other industries as well.     

Sequential Data Assimilation Techniques in Oceanography

We review recent developments of sequential data assimilation techniques used in oceanography to integrate spatio-temporal observations into numerical models describing physical and ecological dynamics. Theoretical aspects from the simple case of linear dynamics to the general case of nonlinear dynamics are described from a geostatistical point-of-view. Current methods derived from the Kalman filter are presented from the least complex to the most general and perspectives for nonlinear estimation by sequential importance resampling filters are discussed. Furthermore an extension of the ensemble Kalman filter to transformed Gaussian variables is presented and illustrated using a simplified ecological model. The described methods are designed for predicting over geographical regions using a high spatial resolution under the practical constraint of keeping computing time sufficiently low to obtain the prediction before the fact. Therefore the paper focuses on widely used and computationally efficient methods.     

Performance appraisal satisfaction and employee outcomes: mediating and moderating roles of work motivation

The purpose of this study was to explore alternative relationships between performance appraisal satisfaction and employee outcomes in the form of self-reported work performance, affective organizational commitment and turnover intention. A cross-sectional survey of 593 employees from 64 Norwegian savings banks showed that performance appraisal satisfaction was directly related to affective commitment and turnover intention. The relationship between performance appraisal satisfaction and work performance, however, was both mediated and moderated by employees' intrinsic work motivation. The form of the moderation revealed a negative relationship for employees with low intrinsic motivation and a positive relationship for those with high intrinsic motivation. Implications for practice and directions for future research are discussed.