Operations of a Pension Fund after the Asian Crisis: The Thai Experience*

During and after the Asian crisis, institutional investors and pension funds in Asian financial markets have been confronted with a number of difficulties effecting their performance and the way they carry out their role within the national pension system. We analyze these problems by comparing the actual investment policy of an institutional investor with an optimal investment strategy derived from the insights of modern portfolio theory. We also analyze whether the organizational set‐up of a pension fund allows it to adequately perform its role within the pension system. As an example, we examine the operations of the Thai Government Pension Fund (GPF). We find that allowing international investments and reducing restrictions on equity investments while lowering the implicit requirements for investments in government debt would allow the GPF to further diversify its investment risk and to increase its risk‐adjusted return. We also show that some changes in the governance structure of the GPF would lower the occurrence of conflicts of interest for the management and increase the efficiency of the GPF operations.     

US trade policy in an unbalanced world economy

Both the national as well as the international debate on US trade policy are overshadowed, and strongly influenced, by the large external inbalances of major trading nations. What do these disequilibria mean for US trade policy? Moreover, is the USA losing comparative advantage in agriculture and high-technology manufacturing? Do industrial policies in other countries distort American trade?     

Probleme gleichgewichtsorientierter Inflationserklärungen

Ohne ZusammenfassungHerrn Doz. Abele und Herrn Dr. Beinsen bin ich für die kritische Durchsicht dieser Arbeit zu Dank verpflichtet. Doz. Abele hat mir vor allem allgemeine Hinweise zum Stand der Theorie gegeben, die mich zu dieser Arbeit erst so recht anregten.     

Wettbewerb und Regulierung des Bahnmarktes

Die Wettbewerbssituation auf dem deutschen Bahnmarkt ist vielschichtig: Sowohl die verschiedenen Teilsegmente des Bahnmarktes als auch der intermodale Wettbewerb müssen berücksichtigt werden. Dabei besteht die Gefahr, die Wettbewerbsposition des gesamten Eisenbahnverkehrs gegenüber anderen Verkehrstr?gern aus den Augen zu verlieren.     

Einnahmen- und ausgabenseitige Multiplikatoren der deutschen Volkswirtschaft

Theoretically based on the Haavelmo theorem, this study analyses the economic effects that increasing public expenditure or reducing public income have on the gross domestic product of Germany, with the help of two medium-sized macro-econometric models, the RWI business cycle model and the Econometric Model of the German Economy. The major finding is that most of the public revenue multipliers are considerably lower than most of the public spending multipliers. However, both the dimension and the time course of the effects are a function of the specific kind of politico-economic measures taken by the government.     

Forecasting U.S. car sales and car registrations in Japan: Rationality, accuracy and herding

We analyze forecasts of car sales in the U.S. and forecasts of car registrations in Japan. We document a substantial heterogeneity of forecasts, and we show that, based on traditional criteria, forecasts are neither rational nor unbiased. We also report that forecasters anti-herd, that is, forecasters seem to intentionally scatter their forecasts around a consensus forecast. We further show that cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecasts with regard to anti-herding transmits onto cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecast accuracy. Specifically, we document that forecasters who herd provide more accurate forecasts than their colleagues who anti-herd.     

中国游客赴欧旅游组织机构的发展与未来任务

本文试图从全新思维角度阐明全球背景下中国出境旅游,特别是赴欧洲的出境旅游的特征.通过系统分析中国游客在不同文化情境下的旅游行为、中国游客赴欧旅游的动机和不同游客群体、中国和欧洲游客之间的知识鸿沟以及跨文化差异等基础上,提出中国与欧洲旅游组织机构的未来发展任务,并进一步指出从事中国出境游的经销商和企业应以顾客为定向,发展适合中国游客市场的旅游产品和营销战略.     

Antecedents to Decision‐Making Quality and Agility in Innovation Portfolio Management

Innovation portfolio management (IPM) is a dynamic decision‐making process, in which projects are evaluated and selected, and resources are allocated. Previous research has developed an understanding of IPM success and its influencing factors. However, little research investigated the quality of the decision‐making process and the ability to quickly adapt the portfolio. This study focuses on the antecedents of decision‐making quality and agility (i.e., responsiveness to changes in the environment). Based on a decision‐making framework, five structural and cultural IPM components are derived as important antecedents of decision‐making quality, which in turn influences agility. The structural components (1) clarity of strategic goals, (2) formality of the IPM processes, and (3) controlling intensity serve a coordinating function. The cultural components (4) innovation climate and (5) risk climate serve a motivating function in IPM. An analysis of a sample of 179 firms and their innovation portfolios through structural equation modeling using a double‐informant design documents that these five components all positively influence portfolio decision‐making quality, which in turn positively influences agility. Results further show that environmental turbulence moderates some of these relationships. While the positive effect of process formality is weakened under increasing turbulence, the effects of controlling intensity and climate for innovation are strengthened by environmental turbulence. The findings have theoretical implications for the understanding of IPM as a dynamic capability and practical implications for the management of portfolios in turbulent environments.