Is there a Core of Macroeconomics that Euro Area Forecasters Believe In?

The quantity theory of money, Okun's law, and the Phillips curve are cornerstones of macroeconomic theory. But are they also of practical relevance? Using survey data for the euro area, we found that professional economists’ forecasts are consistent with a version of the quantity theory in which forecasts of the growth rate of money supply correlate in a proportional way with forecasts of the inflation rate. We also found that forecasts of changes in the unemployment rate and forecasts of the growth rate of real output are consistent with Okun's law. Evidence of a systematic link between forecasts of the inflation rate and forecasts of the unemployment rate, however, is not strong.     

The 1/N investment strategy is optimal under high model ambiguity

The 1/N investment strategy, i.e. the strategy to split one’s wealth uniformly between the available investment possibilities, recently received plenty of attention in the literature. In this paper, we demonstrate that the uniform investment strategy is rational in situations where an agent is faced with a sufficiently high degree of model uncertainty in the form of ambiguous loss distributions. More specifically, we use a classical risk minimization framework to show that, for a broad class of risk measures, as the uncertainty concerning the probabilistic model increases, the optimal decisions tend to the uniform investment strategy.To illustrate the theoretical results of the paper, we investigate the Markowitz portfolio selection model as well as Conditional Value-at-Risk minimization with ambiguous loss distributions. Subsequently, we set up a numerical study using real market data to demonstrate the convergence of optimal portfolio decisions to the uniform investment strategy.     

Warum kriegt Europa die Eurokrise nicht in den Griff?

This paper argues that Europe is unable to get the euro crisis under control because it has chosen a crisis management strategy that is diametrically opposed to the one applied in the global financial crisis. In 2008, crisis management focused on measures that instilled confidence, while policies solving more fundamental problems were only applied at a later stage. In the euro crisis — following the advice of German economists strongly attached to the views of ?Ordnungspolitik“ — crisis management aims at solving the fundamental problems first. Moreover, measures successfully applied in the 2008 crisis, including joint liability mechanisms, are now portrayed as counterproductive and even harmful. As a result, Europe has made little progress in fighting the crisis and creating the institutional foundations to do so successfully.     

The labour market effects of financial crises

This paper examines how the 2008–2009 financial crisis affected labour markets in Europe, and how this impact depended on employment protection laws. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach, our estimates isolate the effect of the lack of credit on the labour market from that of the general decline in aggregate economic activity. We find large and negative impacts of the credit shock on total employment, particularly on temporary, unskilled and young workers. These impacts were significantly larger in countries with stronger legal protection of permanent workers from dismissal. This suggests that the differential impact of the crisis across countries was not entirely driven by the heterogeneity of the credit shock, but also by labour regulations. Given regulatory inflexibility in adjusting the permanent workforce, firms responded to tightening financial constraints by disproportionately laying off temporary workers (who tend to be younger and less skilled than permanent workers).     

Extending private‐collective innovation: a case study

The private‐collective innovation model proposes incentives for individuals and firms to privately invest resources to create public goods innovations. Such innovations are characterized by non‐rivalry and non‐exclusivity in consumption. Examples include open source software, user‐generated media products, drug formulas, and sport equipment designs. There is still limited empirical research on private‐collective innovation. We present a case study to (1) provide empirical evidence of a case of private‐collective innovation, showing specific benefits, and (2) to extend the private‐collective innovation model by analyzing the hidden costs for the company involved. We examine the development of the Nokia Internet Tablet, which builds on both proprietary and open source software development, and that involves both Nokia developers and volunteers who are not employed by the company. Seven benefits for Nokia are identified, as are five hidden costs: difficulty to differentiate, guarding business secrets, reducing community entry barriers, giving up control, and organizational inertia. We examine the actions taken by the management to mitigate these costs throughout the development period.     

Übervölkerung,Untervölkerung Begriffe,Verfahren, Tatsachen

Ohne Zusammenfassung Erweiterte Niederschrift eines im Wiener Afro-asiatischen Institut gehaltenen Vortrages.     

Has the Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act Achieved Its Stated Goals?

This paper examines the impact of CBERA (Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act) trade provisions to determine whether the program has achieved its stated goals. A major program enhancement had a negative impact across small beneficiaries, but countries with large manufacturing sectors were able to expand preferential export shares with negligible increases in total exports relative to GDP. Additional evidence supports the view that tariff preferences did not promote economic development in CBERA-eligible countries. Greater utilization of CBERA trade provisions will require expanding coverage to include all products of export interest to beneficiaries and reducing costs associated with administrative regulations and rules of origin.