Returns of Small Growth Stocks: An Empirical Analysis

I investigate the mean reversion tendency of small growth stocks. Using a carefully articulated research design employing established and empirically tested principles, my findings should support or refute the anecdotal evidence that small growth stocks make superior investments. The primary motivation for the study springs from the documented differential preference among investors for value and growth stocks. Despite evidence that value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks, investors retain strong interest in growth stocks. Yet in examining the performance of Business Week’s (BW), smaller capitalization companies (called “Hot Growth Companies”) with respect to the overall financial market, Bauman et al. [2002] found positive excess returns in the pre-publication period but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. A limitation of their study is that their analyses relied on only three criteria: sales, BW rank and return on capital, which do not represent completely a firm’s financial health. I replicate Bauman et al.’s study but use a more robust and representative variable set to test the mean reversal hypothesis — Forbes’ financial criteria — and I focus on six variables. In the current study, I look at 4,200 companies listed in Forbes from 1980 to 2000. The results of the expanded study substantiate Bauman et al.’s [2002] study showing that there are positive excess returns in the pre-publication period, but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. An expanded future study will look at five additional variables to see if they make a significant difference on the effects of the returns of small growth stocks.     

Duration gaps with futures and swaps for managing interest rate risk at depository institutions

Duration gaps for depository institutions are derived for economic net worth, economic net income, and book value interest income. The duration gaps previously constructed for on-balance sheet accounts are expanded to off-balance sheet accounts, including futures contracts and swap agreements. These expanded duration gaps are indicators of the sensitivity of the market value of net worth and income measures to interest rate fluctuations. Managers of depository institutions can establish these duration gaps as targets and can utilize futures markets and swap agreements to affect the target values. The developments in this article are based on a single factor model of interest rate movements, but the results can be extended.The work in this article is based partly on Bierwag and Kaufman (1989), a study prepared for and funded by the Federal Home Loan Bank Board. We have benefited from comments of discussants and participants at presentations at HEC Jouy-en-Josas, the meetings of the European Finance Association, and seminars at the University of Delaware, Loyola University of Chicago, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Florida State University, and the University of Illinois, Chicago.     

The welfare effects of import “subquotas” on heterogeneous product categories

In spite of its importance to policy makers, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the welfare effects of one aspect of trade policy-how to implement an import quota that applies to a heterogeneous product category. The government can impose a simple quota that applies indiscriminately to all goods within the product category or it can divide the quota among them with subquotas. In this paper, we analyze the welfare effects of subquotas. Under certain simplifying assumptions we find that a system of subquotas nearly always exists that provides greater welfare than a simple quota for a large country that retains quota rights or for a large or small country that gives quota rights away to foreigners. However, subquotas cannot increase the welfare of a small country that retains quota rights. The difference lies in the effect of imports on the home country's terms of trade.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the US International Trade Commission. The authors are grateful for helpful comments on an earlier draft by anonymous referees.     

The changing duties of today's foreman

There are, today, more foremen in ratio to the numbers of workers they are supervising; they have better educations than foremen have ever had before, or have ever been expected to have; and their responsibilities are expanding to new areas.     

The impact of forecasting on operational performance: Mediation effects through flexibility enablers

Literature has devoted increasing attention to the problem of supply and demand management in uncertain contexts. Only limited contributions, however, can be found regarding the interaction between forecasting and flexibility enablers to manage demand as well as regarding the flexibility enablers’ effect on company performance. We will discuss the impacts of flexibility and forecasting on dynamic interactions. The aim of this work is to study the mediation effect of forecasting through flexibility enablers on company performance, i.e., customer satisfaction and cost efficiency. Our results provide evidence that the relationship between forecasting and customer satisfaction is mainly due to process flow management, while the relationship with cost efficiency is mainly due to layout.     

Distance in organizations

There is perhaps no construct that is so fundamental to interpersonal interactions in organizations, yet so incompletely understood, than distance. Part of the difficulty in developing a comprehensive and informed understanding of the role distance plays in organizations is that theory and research in this area have been quite fragmented, focusing on narrow aspects of the construct and lacking the integration necessary to build a more general knowledge base. For example, Graen (1976) has contributed greatly to our understanding of one aspect of distance, presenting a model based on role theory whereby in-group and out-group members are hypothesized to enjoy different rewards, benefit from different leadership behaviors, and experience different levels of satisfaction and performance ratings based on relative closeness (or distance) in their working relationship with their supervisor. Other researchers have explored the phenomena of psychological distance (Rothaus, Morton, & Hanson 1965), spatial distance (Kerr & Jermier 1978; Ferris & Rowland 1985), and physical distance (Sundstrom, Burt, & Kamp 1980; Sundstrom 1986) in the supervisor-subordinate relationship. This research, although a good starting point, does not adequately define or integrate the various aspects of distance in organizations. This article represents an effort to develop a broader and more extensive understanding of the role distance plays in organizations by integrating the various types of distance into a theoretical model. A model of Dyadic Distance in the supervisor-subordinate relationship is presented which develops the new constructs of Dyadic, Psychological, Structural, and Functional Distance, examines their process dynamics and impact on Human Resource Management issues such as performance evaluations and turnover, and proposes needed directions for future research in this important area.     

Shareholder Activism, "Voluntary" Restructuring, and Internal Labor Markets

We model an internal labor market in which employee behavior and compensation are affected by the firm's financial position and the threat of hostile takeover or other exercise of shareholder "voice." We show how good past performance can result in excessively generous promotion and pay decisions. While the threat of shareholder activism will remove this "slack," activists optimally face a positive cost barrier, which in turn varies across firms. The cost barrier is higher when cooperation or "helping" between employees is more important, and is lower when employees receive efficiency wages due to an inability to "pay" for their jobs. Since the importance of helping is associated with pay compression and "flat" pay ladders, such firms should also exhibit a greater degree of management entrenchment.     

A model of public sector wage determination

The paper presents an empirical model of wage determination in the public sector that leads to the specification of a system of interrelated wage equations for municipal employees, which allows for occupational and geographic interdependence of wages. The model also considers the influence of public employee unions, municipal government form, and monopsony power of local governments on the wages of municipal employees. Several variants of the derived system of equations are estimated based upon 1967 cross-section data for 478 cities, and the policy implications of the results are discussed.     

Debt finance and the cost of management ownership: Some elementary results

Increased debt reduces a company's equity base, which reduces the dollar investment a manager must make to hold a given proportion of stock. Therefore, it is often argued, managers' effort incentives are improved by high leverage. This paper shows that while risky debt reduces the cost of providing managers with substantial equity ownership, the cheaper equity captures less of the fruits of the manager's effort. Managers' effort incentives are improved by high debt levels only under quite restrictive conditions. These conditions are more plausible when agency problems are due to a managerial propensity to expand size by investing in negative net present value projects. The results also imply that when debt is increased to reduce the agency costs of free cash flow, the accompanying covenants should allow for substantial cash distributions to shareholders even before bondholder claims are satisfied.