Gernot Wersig 60 Jahre

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

The goal of consumer advice: Transparency or autonomy?

To improve the transparency of consumer markets by means of information is an important task but it cannot be served efficiently by consumer advice. The genuine aim of consumer advice is described here as promoting consumer autonomy by, first, decision counselling and related means and, second, coordinating consumer interests. The paper is centred on two main issues: the responsibility of suppliers of consumer goods to meet the consumers' information needs, and the potential and chance for consumers to progress towards a higher degree of autonomy.     

Contribution of financial market segments at different stages of development: Transition,cohesion and mature economies compared

What is the impact of financial sector segments at different stages of development? We apply a production function approach to investigate the impact of the credit, bond and stock segments in nine EU-accession countries over early years of transition (1996–2000) and compare these to mature market economies and to countries at intermediate stage. We find that the transfer mechanisms differ over the development cycle (from bond markets to educational attainment to labor participation) and that financial market segments with links to the public sector (but not stock markets) contributed to stability and growth in transition economies.     

Einzelbesprechungen

Ohne ZusammenfassungÜbersetzt von Gerhard Tintner, WienÜbersetzt von Ragnar Nurkse, z. Zt. Wienaus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Dr. Hans Fried, WienÜbersetzt von Paul Brüll, Wien.Aus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Dr. Hans Fried.     

Einzelbesprechungen

Ohne ZusammenfassungAus dem Italienischen übersetzt von M. St. Braun, WienAus dem Russischen übersetzt von A. GerschenkronAus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Erich Allina     

Rezensionen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Box-Jenkins Methoden — Alternative Verfahren zur Prognose ökonomischer Zeitreihen

Summary In this paper we try to clarify whether the use ofBox-Jenkins methods would have improved the forecasting performance in Austria during the recession of 1975. For this purpose we estimate ARIMA models for gross national product, private consumption, investment in plant and equipment, and inventory investment. We then compare the forecasts derived from these models with the results of more convential forecasting techniques. It can not be expected that Box-Jenkins methods predict a business cycle turning point. But, as soon as the recession was under way Box-Jenkins methods were faster in adapting to the new situation than conventional forecasting techniques. We found that the accuracy of Box-Jenkins predictions depends to a large extent on the length of the forecasting horizon. Our results suggest that the forecasting horizon should not exceed one year. All in all, Box-Jenkins methods applied together with the forecasting techniques already in use could further improve the forecasting performance.