Einzelbesprechungen

Ohne ZusammenfassungAus dem Italienischen übersetzt von M. St. Braun, WienAus dem Russischen übersetzt von A. GerschenkronAus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Erich Allina     

Einzelbesprechungen

Ohne ZusammenfassungÜbersetzt von Gerhard Tintner, WienÜbersetzt von Ragnar Nurkse, z. Zt. Wienaus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Dr. Hans Fried, WienÜbersetzt von Paul Brüll, Wien.Aus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Dr. Hans Fried.     

Die Nachfrage im Monopolgebiet

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

A theory of operational cash holding,endogenous financial constraints,and credit rationing

This paper develops a theory of operational cash holding. Liquidity shocks due to delayed payments must be financed using cash or short-term debt. Debt holders provide an irrevocable credit line given a firm's expected insolvency risk, and equity holders select optimum cash holding. The model demonstrates the trade-off between cash holding and investing in fixed assets. Introducing uncertain cash flows leads to precautionary cash holding if debt holders impose financial constraints. Precautionary cash holding, in turn, reduces insolvency risk enhancing access to short-term finance. The theory shows that credit rationing can occur in the absence of market frictions. Using U.S. data from 1998 to 2012, empirical findings suggest that the decline in credit lines has contributed to the increase in cash holding in line with theoretical predictions.     

Business,housing, and credit cycles

We use multivariate unobserved components models to estimate trend and cyclical components in gross domestic product (GDP), credit volumes, and house prices for the USA and the five largest European economies. With the exception of Germany, we find large and long cycles in credit and house prices, which are highly correlated with a medium‐term component in GDP cycles. Differences across countries in the length and size of cycles appear to be related to the properties of national housing markets. The precision of pseudo real‐time estimates of credit and house price cycles is roughly comparable to that of GDP cycles.     

Macroeconomic forecasting in Austria an agnostic viewpoint

Zusammenfassung In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird ein relativ einfaches Prognoseverfahren, nämlich Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing, zur Vorhersage wichtiger makroökonomischer Größen, wie des Brutto-Inlandsproduktes und seiner Verwendungskomponenten, der Verbraucherpreise und der Arbeitslosenrate herangezogen. Es zeigt sich dabei, daß diese Technik —mit Ausnahme der Investitions- und Verbraucherpreisprognose — Vorhersagen liefert, die denen des WIFO mindestens gleichwertig sind.

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Helpful comments of Johannes Ledolter, Kurt Rothschild, Fritz Schebeck, Erich Streißler and Gunther Tichy are gratefully acknowledged.     

On the Multi-Country Version of the Solow–Swan Model

I study a multi-country version of the Solow–Swan model of capital accumulation. Capital is perfectly mobile and flows instantaneously to countries providing the highest return. I show that, in general, the model possesses infinitely many stationary equilibria that differ from each other in terms of the world interest rate and world output. Analysing the dynamics of the model, I find that multiple equilibria exist for any given initial allocation of capital. Finally, I discuss a generalization of the golden rule to the multi-country version of the Solow–Swan model and show that it satisfies a Nash equilibrium property.
JEL Classification Numbers: F20, O41