Modelling systemic price cojumps with Hawkes factor models

Instabilities in the price dynamics of a large number of financial assets are a clear sign of systemic events. By investigating portfolios of highly liquid stocks, we find that there are a large number of high-frequency cojumps. We show that the dynamics of these jumps is described neither by a multivariate Poisson nor by a multivariate Hawkes model. We introduce a Hawkes one-factor model which is able to capture simultaneously the time clustering of jumps and the high synchronization of jumps across assets.     

The Theory and Practice of Regulation with Multinational Enterprises

The ability of firms to operate in several markets at the same time is changing regulators' tasks. Regulatory bodies are now having to deal with multinational firms which spread their business activities all over the world. This paper analyzes the theory and practice of regulation in terms of the multinational dimensions of regulated firms. We show that the perceived theory of regulation is indeed affected, and that new issues arise both from a positive and normative point of view.     

Aggregation of exponential smoothing processes with an application to portfolio risk evaluation

In this paper we propose a unified framework to analyse contemporaneous and temporal aggregation of a widely employed class of integrated moving average (IMA) models. We obtain a closed-form representation for the parameters of the contemporaneously and temporally aggregated process as a function of the parameters of the original one. These results are useful due to the close analogy between the integrated GARCH (1, 1) model for conditional volatility and the IMA (1, 1) model for squared returns, which share the same autocorrelation function. In this framework, we present an application dealing with Value-at-Risk (VaR) prediction at different sampling frequencies for an equally weighted portfolio composed of multiple indices. We apply the aggregation results by inferring the aggregate parameter in the portfolio volatility equation from the estimated vector IMA (1, 1) model of squared returns. Empirical results show that VaR predictions delivered using this suggested approach are at least as accurate as those obtained by applying standard univariate methodologies, such as RiskMetrics.     

A metacultural approach to predicting self-employment across the globe

Drawing from neo-institutional theory, we examine the relationship between preference for entrepreneurship and actual entrepreneurship behavior across multiple countries and cultures. We elucidate how multiple societal-level cultural models, namely Hofstede, Global Leadership and Organizational Behavior Effectiveness (GLOBE), and Schwartz affect the individual-level process connecting expressed preference for self-employment and actual behavior. Our hypotheses were tested using a multilevel technique on a sample of 20,755 individuals across 24 countries. The findings indicate that the moderating effect of predominant cultural cognition is partially supported. Contributions and implications for theory and practice are also discussed.     

The innovation–trade nexus: Italy in historical perspective (1861–1939)

This work investigates the relationship between trade and technological specialisation in Italy, during the long time span ranging from Unification to the eve of the Second World War. To do this, new series of Italy’s indices of specialisation in trade and technology are calculated based on official data. Empirical analysis, based on Spearman rank correlation coefficients and fixed-effects regression, shows the emergence of a positive relationship between specialisation in technology and specialisation in trade after the start of the country’s modern economic growth, around the turn of the twentieth century. This, however, was uniquely driven by a negative relationship between technological specialisation and import shares, while no significant relationship between the former and export shares emerges. Furthermore, this finding excludes the most important sector, leading Italian industrialisation, that is, textiles, the outstanding performance of which can be seen as largely determined by its being particularly suited to the country’s factor endowment.     

Effects of Currency Devaluations on the Economic Growth in Developing Countries: The Role of Foreign Currency-Denominated Debt

Assuming that a developing country has to denominate its debts in the currencies of the principal creditor countries, how is the country??s economic performance affected when currency devaluation occurs? The aim of this paper is to prove that devaluation can be contractionary and that its occurrence can be the result of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Assuming credit constraints on firms?? borrowing capacity and nominal price rigidities, a sharp change in the value of the domestic currency leads to an increase in the real costs of foreign currency-denominated debt. Hence, firms?? profits as well as their borrowing capacity decrease, provoking a drop in future investment and output. Moreover, expectations about future output can alone trigger a currency devaluation, confirming the initial expectations in a self-fulfilling way. Finally, it is discussed in an empirical analysis the impact of devaluation on the economic growth in a sample of five countries.     

Status, the Distribution of Wealth, and Growth

We analyze a simple model of endogenous growth in which individuals care about both consumption and their rank in the distribution of wealth. We show that the steady-growth rate of the economy increases with both the strength of the status-seeking motive and the initial equality of the wealth distribution. Contrary to the basic model of endogenous growth, the equilibrium growth rate is not necessarily smaller than in the social optimum, and we identify the circumstances under which the two coincide.     

Long COVID? Prospects for economic scarring from the pandemic

This paper examines the potential persistent effects (scarring) of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. Our findings from a broad set of historical recessions confirm that recessions are associated with persistent output losses and that the greatest scarring has occurred following financial crises. The amount of scarring following pandemic and epidemic recessions in the sample is in between that of typical recessions and financial crises. Results on the channels show that the productivity channel is important, as all types of recessions have been followed by persistent losses to total factor productivity.