Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach

The consumer confidence index is a highly observed indicator among short-term analysts and news reporters and it is generally considered to convey some useful information about the short-term evolution of consumer expenditure. However, its usefulness in forecasting households consumption is sometimes questioned in empirical studies. A possible weakness can be due to the use of a linear functional form to model the relation between these two variables. Here, in order to overcome this issue, a non-parametric model is used, so that overly restrictive assumptions about the functional form can be avoided.     

A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination

This paper builds a baseline two-country model of real and monetary transmission in the presence of optimal international price discrimination by firms. Distributing traded goods to consumers requires nontradables, making the price elasticity of demand country-specific and a function of the exchange rate. Profit-maximizing monopolistic firms drive a wedge between prices across countries, optimally dampening the response of import and consumer prices to exchange-rate movements. We derive general equilibrium expressions for the pass-through into import and consumer prices, tracing the differential impact of real and monetary shocks on marginal cost and markup fluctuations through the exchange rate.     

INTEREST RATE PEGS,WEALTH EFFECTS AND PRICE LEVEL DETERMINACY

This paper analyses the issue of price level determinacy in an optimizing general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. It is shown that under a pure interest rate peg wealth effects rule out nominal indeterminacy but give rise to multiple equilibria.     

The characteristics of a monetary economy: a Keynes-Schumpeter approach

Mainstream monetary theory considers money only as an instrumentmeant to facilitate trading without having any effect on incomeor on the evolution of the economic system. The aim of thispaper is to elaborate a monetary theory capable of supportingthe thesis of money non-neutrality based on the arguments developedby Keynes and Schumpeter. The synthesis of the theories of thesetwo great economists will be formulated starting from the twopoints which are common in the views of Keynes and Schumpeter.First, in contrast with mainstream theory, Keynes and Schumpeterstate that the diffusion of a fiat money induces a radical modificationinto the way in which the economic system works. Second, whenKeynes and Schumpeter describe the reasons why money and financialaggregates are not neutral, they highlight the fundamental roleof the credit market and of banks; in contrast with the mainstreamtheory, they do not consider the credit market as the mirrorimage of the goods market.     

The Provision of Finance to Innovation: A Survey Conducted among Italian Technology-based Small Firms

Financial constraints to the development of innovation are often considered one of the main impediments to high-technology firms seeking to expand and grow. In particular this is the case of small and medium size high-tech firms. In the U.S. and the U.K. a variety of sources of finance are available to the start-ups of innovative firms; in the other European countries, and particularly in Italy, these means are still uncommon so that the development of technology is often prevented. This paper, based on an empirical analysis on a survey of 46 small high-tech Italian firms, aims at exploring the problems experienced by small businesses in gaining access to debt and equity finance. The results highlight that traditional financial sources are inadequate to finance innovative projects. The questioned firms rely mainly on personal finance, and secondly on short term bank debt; they are truly involved in maintaining control over the firm activities and are willing to issue outside equity only if the new investors also provide non financial competencies. Among the 46 interviewed firms, only 10 are willing to be listed in the future on small firms' stock markets.     

Estimating the Consequences of Unintended Fertility for Child Health and Education in Romania: An Analysis Using Twins Data*

We use the natural experiment of twins at first birth to estimate the effects of unplanned fertility on the nutritional status and school enrolment of children in Romania, a country with a unique fertility history. A first‐birth twins shock has negative impacts on children's human capital investments, particularly for later‐born siblings. We infer that harsh pronatalist policies prior to the 1989 Revolution had adverse consequences for the human capital of Romanian children, and that policies to make fertility control easier will have significant positive impacts on children's health and schooling.     

The Current Account – Interest Rate Relation as a Nonlinear Phenomenon

The current account?–?interest rate relationship has been extensively investigated, but always assuming that it is linear. In this paper we examine the linearity versus nonlinearity issue with reference to this relationship in 11 OECD countries, and find overwhelming evidence in favour of nonlinearity. After testing alternative nonlinear specifications, we estimate a smooth transition regression model and a nonlinear VAR model. Finally, we provide a study of the innovation response analysis that shows adjustment behaviours of the two variables. The implications of the results are discussed.     

International Marketing Channels for Brazilian Beef: Comparison between Russia and the United Kingdom

This article compares the Russian and British marketing channels for Brazilian beef distribution. The results show that the framework hereby developed aids understanding of the differences and the reasons for the organizational form of these channels. The findings also show that there is a difference in the way these channels are organized to seek efficiency in their business transactions. Institutional environment attributes are able to influence the distinction between channels in terms of transaction efficiency.     

Value stream mapping in project management: A case study

This article describes the application of value stream mapping to analyze and redesign the way of managing the materials procurement stage of a project. A framework based on integrated definition (IDEF) methodology, the stream analysis approach, activity‐based costing, and discrete event simulation is presented. The stream analysis approach is used to analyze, diagnose, and manage process changes represented using an IDEF model. A dynamic simulation is used to evaluate the impact of the changes considered, to support the analysis of the process, and to model the performance of the proposed process. The overall methodology is demonstrated by applying it to a company whose core business is the design and construction of offshore oil rigs. The company specializes in engineering, procurement, and construction projects and has an annual portfolio of about six projects. Many of these projects have common features in terms of design and components, and they are all also characterized by a short “time to delivery.” For this reason, this study was aimed at assessing the possible effects that the application of new materials management policies could have on reducing both project completion time and the resources required.     

A Short Overview of a Methodology for the Ex-Post Review of Merger Control Decisions

Summary  This paper is based on a study commissioned by the European Commission, in which we proposed a detailed methodological approach for the ex-post assessment of decisions reached by the European Commission in the field of merger control. The methodology focuses on how to establish whether the market structure arising from the decision is apt to protect consumer welfare better than the market structures that could have arisen from alternative decisions. It provides suggestions on how assess the impact of the decision relative to the possible counterfactuals and discusses the empirical techniques that can be used to perform this evaluation.