One-sample tests for a generalized Fréchet variance of a fuzzy random variable

A procedure to test hypotheses about the population variance of a fuzzy random variable is analyzed. The procedure is based on the theory of UH-statistics. The variance is defined in terms of a general metric to quantify the variability of the fuzzy values about its (fuzzy) mean. An asymptotic one-sample test in a wide setting is developed and a bootstrap test, which is more suitable for small and moderate sample sizes, is also studied. Moreover, the power function of the asymptotic procedure through local alternatives is analyzed. Some simulations showing the empirical behavior and consistency of both tests are carried out. Finally, some illustrative examples of the practical application of the proposed tests are presented.     

The impact of the 1999 CAP reforms on the efficiency of the COP sector in Spain

The cereal, oilseeds, and protein crop sector (COP) occupies a prominent position within the European Union's agricultural sector. Within Spain, the COP sector accounts for almost a third of total Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee Fund expenses, and half of the utilized agricultural area (UAA). The COP sector is not only relevant because of its physical and economic magnitude, but also because of the political attention it receives. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms that occurred during the 1990s paid special attention to this sector. This article aims to determine the impacts of Agenda 2000 on a sample of Spanish COP farmers' production decisions by using an output-oriented stochastic distance function. The distance function allows for an assessment of the reform-motivated changes on total output, input used, input composition, and crop mix. It also permits an assessment of the impacts of the reform on farms' technical efficiency.
Results show that the reform has shifted the production frontier inward and changed output composition in favor of voluntary set-aside land. With respect to input composition, Agenda 2000 induced a decrease in land, fertilizers, pesticides, and other inputs in favor of labor. In addition, Agenda 2000 has had a negative impact on technical efficiency.     

Persistence,Long Memory,and Unit Roots in Commodity Prices

This article investigates the degree of persistence in several weekly and monthly agricultural prices (corn, soybeans, barrow and gilts, and milk) using long memory (fractional integration) techniques. The results indicate mean reversion (i.e., orders of integration smaller than one) in some of the agricultural prices like corn, milk, and barrow and gilts when the disturbances are autocorrelated. Further, we examine the stability across time in the degree of dependence, and the results indicate that the fractional differencing parameters have not remained constant across time. When we take into account a structural break we find that during the first subsamples, the series are stationary though highly persistent, with orders of integration close to 0 and with large autoregressive coefficients. However, for the periods after the break, the series seem to be nonstationary I(1). Dans le présent article, nous avons étudié le degré de persistance des prix hebdomadaires et mensuels de plusieurs produits agricoles (maïs, soja, castrats et cochettes, lait) à l’aide de tests de mémoire longue (intégration fractionnaire). Nos résultats indiquent une stationnarité (c.‐à.‐d. des ordres d’intégration inférieurs à un) des prix de certains produits agricoles, tels que le maïs, le lait, les castrats et cochettes, lorsque les perturbations sont autocorrélées. Nous avons également étudié la stabilité du degré de dépendance à travers le temps, et nos résultats indiquent que les paramètres de différenciation fractionnaire ne sont pas demeurés constants. Lorsque nous avons tenu compte d’une rupture structurelle, nous avons trouvé que dans les premiers sous‐échantillons, les séries étaient stationnaires quoique très persistantes, avec des ordres d’intégration près de 0 et d’importants coefficients d’autorégression. Dans le cas des périodes suivant la rupture, les séries semblaient non stationnaires I(1).     

Assessing Consumers’ Willingness to Pay for Different Units of Organic Milk: Evidence from Multiunit Auctions

Experimental auctions are normally conducted using single‐unit auctions. In this paper, we use the multiunit Vickrey auction to assess the determinants of consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for organic milk in a multiunit shopping scenario. We also analyze the effect of positive and negative information about organic farming on WTP. Our results suggest that consumers are willing to pay a premium for organic milk but that this WTP decreases with the number of units purchased. Results also suggest that health issues, high price of organic foods, taste, and lack of information on organic foods are factors that influence WTP for organic milk. The type of information provided also plays a relevant role. Specifically, we found that subjects’ WTP responds positively to positive information about organic farming and responds negatively to negative information. The provision of both positive and negative information does not affect WTP. Les enchères expérimentales sont en règle générale effectuées sous un cadre d’enchères de Vickrey à une seule unité. Dans le présent article, nous avons utilisé l’enchère de Vickrey à unités multiples pour évaluer les déterminants du consentement à payer (CAP) des consommateurs pour du lait biologique dans un contexte d’achats multiples. Nous avons également examiné les répercussions que l’information positive et négative à l’égard de l’agriculture biologique a sur le CAP. Nos résultats autorisent à penser que les consommateurs sont prêts à payer un prix plus élevé pour obtenir du lait biologique, mais que ce CAP diminue avec le nombre d’unités achetées. Nos résultats autorisent aussi à penser que les aspects liés à la santé, le prix élevé des aliments biologiques, le goût et le manque d’information sur ces aliments sont des facteurs qui influencent le CAP pour du lait biologique. Le type d’information joue également un rôle important. Nous avons observé que le CAP réagit favorablement à de l’information positive sur l’agriculture biologique et défavorablement à de l’information négative. La diffusion simultanée d’information positive et négative n’influence pas le CAP.     

Asymptotic Fairness of Bonus-Malus Systems and Optimal Scales of Premiums

In this paper we try to evaluate the asymptotic fairness of bonus-malus systems, assuming the simplest case when there is no hunger for bonus. The asymptotic fairness has to be understood as the bonus-malus system ability in assessing the individual risks in the long run. Firstly we define the asymptotic fairness of a bonus-malus system following an expression that can be found in J. Lemaire [1985]: Automobile Insurance. Actuarial Models. Dordrecht: Kluwer-Nijhoff Publishing, p. 168. Secondly, we define a measure of the global asymptotic fairness considering the structure function of the risk group. Finally we try to calculate, for each set of transition rules and a given structure function, the scale of premiums that brings the global asymptotic fairness closest to the ideal situation where each insured pays in the long run a premium corresponding to its own claim frequency. This is possible thanks to the application of a multiobjective optimization technique named Goal Programming.     

The Role and Determinants of Concession Sales in Movie Theaters: Evidence from the Spanish Exhibition Industry

The importance of concession sales in the movie exhibition industry is widely acknowledged among economists and other social scientists that have studied this industry in the past. Despite this recognition, the lack of appropriate data has constrained existing studies that document the role that concessions play in movie theaters. Using detailed weekly movie theater data on concession sales, box office revenues and transaction characteristics from a major exhibitor in Spain, we shed light on the relation between concession sales and the following factors (i) theater attendance, (ii) non-traditional channels of ticket distribution, (iii) audience composition, and (iv) theater and market specific factors.      

Is emission intensity or output U‐shaped in the strictness of environmental policy?

We show that, in a range of market conditions, an ever stricter environmental policy does not always lead to ever cleaner production methods and ever lower production of polluting goods. We consider an integrated technology, where firms can reduce their emission intensities in a continuous fashion. Analogous to the previous literature we find that firms' emission intensities can be U‐shaped in the strictness of policy, but we show that this applies only under low profitability conditions. Under high profitability conditions, output levels are U‐shaped in the strictness of the policy. The latter result is new in the literature. In the case where the U‐shape arises in emission intensities, the minimum is reached where the marginal abatement cost curves intersect.     

Surrogate modelling of a detailed farm-level model using deep learning

Technological change co-determines agri-environmental performance and farm structural transformation. Meaningful impact assessment of related policies can be derived from farm-level models that are rich in technology details and environmental indicators, integrated with agent-based models capturing dynamic farm interaction. However, such integration faces considerable challenges affecting model development, debugging and computational demands in application. Surrogate modelling using deep learning techniques can facilitate such integration for simulations with broad regional coverage. We develop surrogates of the farm model FarmDyn using different architectures of neural networks. Our specifically designed evaluation metrics allow practitioners to assess trade-offs among model fit, inference time and data requirements. All tested neural networks achieve a high fit but differ substantially in inference time. The Multilayer Perceptron shows almost top performance in all criteria but saves strongly on inference time compared to a Bi-directional Long Short Term Memory.