On the divergence of evolutionary research paths in the past 50 years: a comprehensive bibliometric account

In the last two decades, there has been a noticeable increase in published research on evolutionary economics. The general perception is that formalization lags behind appreciative work. Notwithstanding, this general reading has yet to be supported by real data analysis. This work presents a survey on evolutionary economics, aimed at exploring the main research paths and contributions using bibliometric methods. The documentation is based on an extensive review of the abstracts from articles published in all economic journals over the past 50 years gathered from the Econlit database. Evolutionary contributions have apparently not converged to an integrated approach. Two rather extreme main research strands emerged: ‘History of Economic Thought and Methodology’ and ‘Games’. Whereas formal approaches have a reasonable and increasing share of published papers, purely empirical-related works are relatively scarce, representing a meagre and stagnant percentage of published works. This highlights the need to redirect the evolutionary research agenda.     

On some properties of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods based on the particle filter

Andrieu et al. (2010) prove that Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers still converge to the correct posterior distribution of the model parameters when the likelihood estimated by the particle filter (with a finite number of particles) is used instead of the likelihood. A critical issue for performance is the choice of the number of particles. We add the following contributions. First, we provide analytically derived, practical guidelines on the optimal number of particles to use. Second, we show that a fully adapted auxiliary particle filter is unbiased and can drastically decrease computing time compared to a standard particle filter. Third, we introduce a new estimator of the likelihood based on the output of the auxiliary particle filter and use the framework of Del Moral (2004) to provide a direct proof of the unbiasedness of the estimator. Fourth, we show that the results in the article apply more generally to Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling schemes with the likelihood estimated in an unbiased manner.     

Towards new Triple Helix organisations? A comparative study of competence centres as knowledge,consensus and innovation spaces

This contribution explores new organisational forms facilitating Triple Helix relations. Analysts have pointed to the blurring of institutional boundaries and the emergence of hybrid organisations at the interface between university, industry and government. Starting out from the notion that Triple Helix organisations develop and maintain knowledge, consensus and innovation spaces, we explore four cases of competence centres that operate in this context. Comparing them, we identify Finnish SHOK centres as the most radical departure from more traditional forms of university–industry collaboration. These can be characterised as independent legal entities that are involved in integrating a large, possibly cluster‐level or technology‐focused network, defining the agenda for specific specialisation areas by engaging in all or most of the Triple Helix spaces. We argue they could be better positioned than existing intermediary organisations to deliver the Triple Helix concept.     

Wagner’s Law and Fiscal Illusion: An analysis of state government finances in Brazil

The aim of this article is to analyze state‐level public finances in Brazil. We examine the dynamics of governmental spending in a panel of 26 Brazilian states in search of evidence of Wagner’s Law and Fiscal Illusion Hypothesis. For the period ranging from 2002 to 2015, three methodologies are applied: dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), and pooled mean group (PMG). The main empirical results found indicate that (1) there is strong evidence of Fiscal Illusion caused by public deficit and by central government transfer grants; (2) there are possible Flypaper Effects; (3) there is no evidence in support of Wagner’s Law; (4) there is low publicness degree of local expenditures; (5) due to Fiscal Illusion, less‐developed Brazilian states tend to be stuck in a public expenditure growth mechanism, especially in expenses related to non‐public goods, which tend to benefit private interests and lobby groups.     

Oil shocks and fiscal policy procyclicality in Angola: Assessing the role of asymmetries and institutions

The aim of this article is to examine procyclicality in Angola, assess whether it behaves asymmetrically over the oil cycle, and test the hypothesis that institutions and fiscal rules can moderate procyclicality. Received wisdom suggests that in resource‐rich economies, fiscal policy tends to be procyclical albeit improvements in the past decades due to institutional reforms. Similar evidence is available for oil‐rich economies; however, we know little about how procyclicality behaves over the oil cycle; that is, whether spending (and revenue) grows faster during oil‐market booms, than during downturns. Further, evidence on institutions and fiscal rules in oil‐exporting economies is still ambiguous. We bridge both gaps by examining fiscal policy procyclicality in Angola, one of the largest oil‐producers in Africa, and a country that has experienced an intense process of institutional reforms since 2002. Therefore, it is an ideal candidate for our study. We use data for the 2004–2014 period to estimate a threshold vector error correction model that extends vector autoregressive and vector correction methods used up to date. Our results indicate that revenue and spending are generally procyclical to oil shocks, that revenue is more procyclical during booms, and that institutional quality, net inflows, financial openness, and fiscal rules affect procyclicality.     

Portfolio optimization through Kriging methods

This article presents a new methodology for optimizing financial asset portfolios. The proposed methodology, based on the Kriging method, allows for approximating the risk surface – and thus the optimal solution to the problem – in a generalized fashion, relaxing every restrictive hypothesis inherent to the available methods and with the ability to estimate the error in the risk surface approximation. Illustratively, the proposed methodology is applied to the portfolio problem with the Variance, VaR and CVaR as objective functions. The results are compared to those obtained using the Khun–Tucker technique, for the former, and the Rockafellar method, for the latter.     

劳动力成本上升有助于转变经济发展方式

今年年初我国出现的"民工荒"和近期的劳资矛盾成为社会关注的焦点。文章分析了低劳动力成本不利于经济发展的原因,得出我国劳动力成本上升有助于转变经济发展方式的结论。     

Tax competition and federal equalization schemes with decentralized leadership

Regional governments compete by setting capital taxes in anticipation of the central government’s fiscal equalization and income redistribution policies. I start by demonstrating that the constrained socially optimal allocation satisfies the Pareto efficient conditions; therefore, it may be first best. It is also shown that the subgame perfect equilibrium for the game played by regional and central governments is socially optimal. The anticipation of equalization of marginal utilities of public consumption and equalization of marginal utilities of private consumption provides regional governments with correct incentives in the setting of capital taxes, preventing the phenomenon known as “race to the bottom.”     

公平与效率的一般研究

本文从行为学、社会学和经济学的角度分别研究公平与效率的关系及其选择。通过分析,提出了效率与公平共同提高的路径－以效率的提高来推动公平的提高,即以生产最优和消费次优的统一来评判。