SRI LANKA'S EXPERIMENT WITH DEVALUATION: VAR and ECM Analysis of the Exchange Rate Effects on Trade Balance and GDP

The objective of this study is to empirically analyze the impact of the devaluation of the Sri Lankan currency (rupee) on Sri Lankan trade balance and gross domestic product. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been promoting devaluation as a policy tool for economic growth and stability in LDCs. However, there is substantial research supporting the “J-Curve” effect and contractionary effects on economies due to devaluation, especially for less developed countries (LDCs). The results show a contractionary impact on the Sri Lankan output.     

Risk processes analyzed as fluid queues

This paper presents the Laplace transform of the time until ruin for a fairly general risk model. The model includes both the classical and most Sparre-Andersen risk models with phase-distributed claim amounts as special cases. It also allows for correlated arrival processes, and claim sizes that depend upon environmental factors such as periods of contagion. The paper exploits the relationship between the surplus process and fluid queues, where a number of recent developments have provided the basis for our analysis.     

Analysis of the Visitors of Superagüi National Park,Brazil

The present work consists of the analysis of the visitors' profile of the Superagüi National Park, located on the north coast of the State of Paraná, Brazil. During the season 1998/1999 94 interviews were analysed. It was verified that most of the visitors can be considered as 'ecotourists', because their profile fits the one commonly proposed in literature. Visitors' preferences related to activities and infrastructure and critics are valuable indicators for the park's future management.     

Measuring absorptive capacity constraints to foreign aid

To assist with progress towards the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in developing countries, the international community is scaling-up foreign aid to record levels. Concurrently, there are concerns that additional aid will not be used effectively due to a problem of absorptive capacity in recipient countries. Empirical studies lend support to these concerns with many finding that there are diminishing returns to foreign aid. This paper reviews the extensive aid effectiveness literature to identify the various dimensions of absorptive capacity. It proceeds by devising a composite index of absorptive capacity for individual recipient countries which can assist policymakers in guiding the allocation of their aid. The relevance of the index is confirmed through its employment in a standard empirical model of aid effectiveness. The paper highlights the developing countries that currently receive high levels of aid relative to their estimated level of absorptive capacity.     

Human resources administration processes in commercial restaurants and food safety: The actions of administrators

The study analyzed of the human resources administration processes at commercial restaurants, focusing on the provision of safe foods to consumers. Interviews were conducted with 105 restaurant managers at the city of Florianópolis, Brazil. Three types of restaurants were studied; 45.7% were buffets by weight, 39.1% fast-food restaurants and 15.2% churrascarias. A questionnaire was used with close-ended questions to characterize the restaurants and identify the human resources administration processes for hiring, evaluation, training and provision of benefits to employees. It was found that 89.4% of the restaurants adopt criteria for hiring of employees and 81.9% conduct periodic evaluations. Benefits were offered by 85.7% of the restaurants and 74.3% of the establishments provided employee training. The results indicate that human resources management processes at restaurants can contribute to the provision of safe food, although some establishments still need to adopt professional procedures for recruitment, selection, evaluation and training of their employees.     

Property development firms IPOs in Brazil： Was there overpricing or not？

Between September 2005 and October 2007, representative companies of the Brazilian residential real estate market adopted a strategy intended to increase their investment capacity by Initial Public Offer （IPO）. The setting at that time was favorable for constructing residential real estate designed for the middle class, in view of two main factors： First, in 2005, a restructuring of the Brazilian finance system had relaxed requirements needed to receive financing for the purchase of residential property; Second, there was substantial demand in the middle class market because most developers had been focusing on the upper class market in order to guarantee the sale resources in the production phase. Thus, it was necessary to enhance the investment capacity of the real estate companies to attend the middle-class demand. These two factors, associated with a favorable outlook for the Brazilian, as well as the global economy, encouraged those representative companies to rapidly increase their investment capacity by IPO in a short time. The focus of this article is to analyze the quality of the investments in the stock of these real estate companies （21 offers were taken into account in the analysis）. In order to identify what these companies＇ expectations were and how they supported their decisions to enter BOVESPA with their designated prices and amounts, correlating offers against the BOVESPA Index （market index） were also analyzed. The results allow concluding that these offers were not supported by validated procedures of pricing, but rather were just speculative offers, even though we do take into account the investment grade granted to the Brazilian economy within the period concerned in our analysis.     

Specification and testing of models estimated by quadrature

This paper proposes a test to check the specification of models with unobserved individual effects integrated out by quadrature and also a simple way of increasing the flexibility of this type of model. The results of a Monte Carlo study and an application using a well‐known dataset illustrate the finite sample properties of the proposed methods and their implementation in practice. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of risk aversion on fertiliser use: evidence from Vietnam

This study utilises a large nationally representative household survey of unusual scope and richness from Indonesia to analyse how the receipt of educational transfers, scholarships and related assistance programmes affects the labour supply of children and the marginal spending behaviour of households on children's educational goods. We found strong evidence of educational cash transfers and related assistance programmes significantly decreasing the time spent by children in income-generating activities in Indonesia. Households receiving educational transfers, scholarships and assistance were also found to spend more at the margin on voluntary educational goods. These results were stronger for children living in poor families. Our results are particularly relevant for understanding the role of cash transfers and educational assistance in middle-income countries where enrolment rates are already at satisfactory levels, but the challenge is to keep the students in school at post-primary levels.     

LES DÉTERMINANTS DE LA PERFORMANCE DE REMBOURSEMENT DES MICROCRÉDITS EN TUNISIE

Our work is part of the quest for sustainability of MFIs. To ensure sustainability, an MFI must be effective. It must, among others, face many risks and in particular the default risk. A question arises: what are the determinants of portfolio quality of MFIs? In other words, what are the determinants that influence delays in payment of MFIs? The interest of this research is twofold. The first is practical: knowing the importance of performance measures of microcredit as a precondition for the efficiency and financial performance of MFIs, this study identified determinants of the reimbursement rate in an MFI of Tunisia. It may even give an evidence for banks to intervene on the market of micro credit. The second is methodological: to find the determinants of reimbursement behaviour in MFIs, a binary logistic regression is used, while differing in explanatory variables between key variables and moderators’ ones, which was not met previously in the literature. The results showed that among the variables related to the characteristics of the loan, the loan amount and the borrower's experience with the MFI affect the rate of reimbursement. The credit increases the likelihood of default. Unlike, when borrower's experience with the MFI increases, the risk of default decreases. A relationship between the industry and the repayment rate has not been verified. For variables related to the characteristics of the borrower, age, educational level and marital status of the borrower appear to affect the relationship between the risk of default and the amount of credit. The effect of the credit amount on the default risk decreases as age and level of education increases. In addition, this effect is more important for married compared to the unmarried. For gender, we found that the effect of maturity on the risk of default is not the same for men or women borrowers. It seems that when the maturity increases, men provide reimbursement rates lower than women.