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东南亚区域发展与金融危机 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
本文从东南亚国家的发展角度探讨了其金融危机的必然性。认为始于 1997 年的东南亚金融风暴并不是简单的金融信用危机,而是其经济发展模式的必然结果。经济发展过于依赖“外贸”和“外资”,为其经济发展的不稳定和爆发金融危机隐患之一;投资结构不合理,导致经济结构发展失衡,产业结构未能适时升级和转换,为其经济发展不稳定和日后爆发金融危机隐患之二;世界范围内区域经济一体化的冲击,动摇了东南亚国家经济基础,是其爆发金融危机的原因之三。 相似文献
514.
Maria Luiza Falcão Silva Joaquim Pinto de Andrade Thomas S. Torrance 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(1-2):109-129
Recently a number of emerging economies, with high inflation and various kinds of imbalances have experienced what has come
to be referred to as dollarization– the phenomenon of currency substitution where the dollar gradually replaces the national currency in the performance of
its fundamental functions. The phenomenon is most commonly encountered as a component of the exchange-rate-based stabilization
programs implemented in a number of emerging economies in Latin America, Asia and the Middle East. The fundamental issue we
want to explore is whether this process forces the monetary authorities of emerging economies to act with their hands tied,
as if caught in a trap. It is argued that when the expansion of liquidity and domestic credit is determined by the quantity
of foreign-exchange reserves, an independent monetary policy vanishes and national sovereignty itself is shackled. Since this
scenario typically occurs in a world of increasing globalization of finance, this paper also discusses (with reference to
emerging economies) the risks and implications of capital inflows for macroeconomic policy autonomy, economic instability,
and vulnerability to external shocks. 相似文献
515.
Claudio Henrique da Silveira Barbedo Eduardo Fac Lemgruber 《Emerging Markets Review》2009,10(3):179-190
We develop a tractable structural model to estimate a firm's default probability by modeling its asset and debt behavior. The model incorporates jump factors. For a set of Brazilian large corporations, we compare the structural model results to the default probabilities predicted by a survival analysis applied to the Central Bank debt information database. Our model outperforms other structural models. In a last step, we use a firm's sector failure probabilities to calibrate the model. This process is executed by adjusting the model jump volatility and it helps to explain the differences between debt and equity market failure probabilities. 相似文献
516.
Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes 《Empirical Economics》2006,31(1):165-182
This paper investigates the properties of Dickey–Fuller tests for seasonally unadjusted quarterly data when deterministic
seasonality is present but it is neglected in the test regression. While for the random walk case the answer is straightforward,
an extensive Monte Carlo study has to be performed for more realistic processes and testing strategies. The most important
conclusion is that the common perception that deterministic seasonality has nothing to do with testing for the long-run properties
of the data is incorrect. Further numerical evidence on the shortcomings of the general-to-specific t-sig lag selection method is also presented.
相似文献
Artur C. B. da Silva LopesEmail: |
517.
In this paper we investigate the economic rationality of the bed downsizing process, characterising the hospital industry worldwide in the last decades, as a measure to control public health care expenditure. Considering a sample of Italian hospitals, we provide fresh evidence on the factor substitutability in the production of hospital services. Differently from other studies, based on North-American data and limited to pre-determined cost function models, we estimate a general specification (the Generalised Composite), and test it against traditional nested models (e.g. the Translog). For all the specifications we derive Allen, Morishima and Shadow elasticities of substitution between input pairs, obtaining a fairly consistent picture across all models and elasticity concepts. In particular, our results highlight a very limited degree of substitutability between factors in the production of hospital services, especially between beds and medical staff. These findings suggest that a restructuring policy of the hospital industry, which is confined to reducing the number of beds without involving workforce management, could not be a viable strategy for controlling public health care expenditure. 相似文献
518.
Matheus Wemerson Gomes Pereira Wilson da Cruz Vieira 《International Review of Economics》2010,57(3):335-346
In this article, we analyze the bureaucrats’ corruption problem in a simple neoclassical growth model with a non-convex production
function. In this model, we consider direct relations between product (income) taxation and corruption, and between corruption
and public goods provision. As the main result, we show that the optimal consumption growth path in this economy is higher
in a non-corrupt environment than in a corrupt environment and the higher the proportion of corrupt bureaucrats, the higher
the cost of corruption to society. 相似文献
519.
520.
Andreas Pyka Maria da Gra?a Derengowski Fonseca 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2003,13(3):353-354