Fourth-order autocorrelation: Further significance points for the Wallis test

This note provides tables of 0.5, 1.0 and 2.5 percent significance points of the bounds of Wallis's statistic for testing for fourth-order autocorrelation in regressions either including or excluding quarterly dummy variables.     

A model of market-making with imperfect information

Although the prevention of false markets is one of the major concerns of stock market authorities in the UK and elsewhere, until recently, the theoretical literature on the workings of markets with imperfect information has been sparse. This paper analyses the problem of providing liquidity to investors when price-sensitive information is unequally distributed. Specifically we shall model the activities of a market-maker when certain traders have price-sensitive information unavailable to other market participants. Our model will show how the bid-asked spread would be determined in such a market. It is useful in explaining certain tactics employed by stock market traders and in suggesting alternative ways of evaluating market efficiency. The theory is developed in three sections: (1) the determination of the bid-asked spread for a single, isolated transaction; (2) the determination of the bid-asked spread in a continuous market; (3) the relationship between the spread and the size of transaction.     

Japanese and British Companies Compared: Contributing Factors to Success and Failure in NPD

The success or failure of a new product is an issue of continuing concern to management in the 1990s. Little research, however, has been conducted on this issue from a British perspective. In this article, Scott Edgett, David Shipley and Giles Forbes report the findings of an investigation into success and failure in Japanese- and British-owned firms that conduct business in the United Kingdom. The results from this comparative study illustrate that new product failure rates are still high, with the Japanese firms only marginally outperforming British owned firms.     

NO FIXED ADDRESS—PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS

After an initial excursion into the role of Presidential Addresses, the author examines the growth and shape of the agricultural economics profession in the UK suggesting that, over nearly one hundred years, there have been four distinct phases — and that we might be on the threshold of a fifth. The one thread that has run through this entire history is farm management and some recent developments in the field — in particular the need for net margins as well as gross margins — are examined. The address closes with some personal reflections on ‘being an agricultural economist’.     

Full Stop: an extraordinary appeal for an extraordinary aspiration – putting leadership theory into practice

The National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children (NSPCC)'s Full Stop campaign was launched in March 1999 with one single aim—to end cruelty to children. The Full Stop Appeal was designed to ensure that sufficient financial resources would be in place to support such an extraordinary aspiration. It is the biggest charitable appeal ever attempted in the UK and aims to raise £250m. This paper outlines how the charity applied the leadership model of fundraising to its strategy, the lessons it has learned over the past four years, and how successful it has been. Having already raised more than £100m, Full Stop has broken new ground in its sector, revolutionised the NSPCC's fundraising capacity and, more importantly, has had far‐reaching consequences for its mission to end cruelty to children. Copyright © 2003 Henry Stewart Publications     

The London Business School econometric model of the UK

This paper describes the London Business School econometric model — the first fully computerized model of the UK — which has been used for regular public forecasting since 1966. The model, estimated on quarterly data, is organized around the income expenditure accounts with a fully integrated flow of funds sector which ensures consistency between portfolio decisions and income, savings and investment decisions. Aggregate demand is built up from its individual components so that demand influences are important for the short- and medium-term behaviour of the model. But there are important supply-side effects which work through the real exchange rate and real wages. Monetary conditions have a powerfull effect on the model through the exchange rate, personal sector wealth and interest rates. Wages and employment are determined in a labour market in which employment decisions depend on the level of demand and real wages while real wages depend on the level of unemployment, real benefits and direct and indirect taxes as well as underlying trends in productivity. Asset prices move in any period to clear both the spot and the future market in assets so that current asset prices in the equity, gilt-edged and foreign exchange markets reflect all current information about the expected state of the economy. In contrast, goods prices adjust sluggishly. The combination of continuously clearing asset markets and sluggish wages and prices gives the model many of the theoretical characteristics associated with the open-economy models of Dornbusch and Buiter and Miller.     

Instrumental variables regressions involving seasonal data

Various approaches to handling seasonal data are known to be equivalent in the context of least squares estimation of a fixed-regressor linear model. This note extends these results to models which have stochastic regressors and are estimated by the method of Instrumental Variables.     

FUTURES PRICES AS FORECASTS OF COMMODITY SPOT PRICES: LIVE CATTLE AND WOOL*

In this paper the foundations on which the predictive interpretation of futures prices rests are discussed, and possible reasons for the differential predictive performance of futures prices as between different commodity markets examined. The predictive performances of futures, and spot prices themselves, are tested empirically, using Australian data for wool (a continuous inventory commodity) and finished live beef cattle (virtually a non-storable commodity), by means of instrumental variables estimation.     

Open-mindedness in diverse team performance: investigating a three-way interaction

Studies have shown that open-minded dynamics contribute to diverse team effectiveness; however, there are few studies on the factors that influence the impact of open-mindedness. Survey data from 218 members of 47 professionally diverse teams support a significant relationship between open-mindedness and performance. Professional identification and professional salience were found to moderate the relationship with opposing effects. The study data indicate that although open-mindedness provides a context that facilitates the open exchange and discussion of diverse ideas and perspectives in interprofessional teams, this is less influential when members strongly identify with their profession. Conversely, member focus on professional differences enhances the value of team interaction characterised by receptiveness and openness. Analysis confirms a three-way interaction between open-mindedness, professional identification and salience on performance.