Emerging issues in sales forecasting and decision support systems

There are two distinct groups of emerging issues in the area of sales forecasting and decision support systems: methodological issues and implementational issues. This paper discusses each of them. The discussion of implementational issues includes some results of a survey of forecasting practice. The paper serves as a preface to the special section on sales forecasting and decision support systems and introduces the papers included in the special section.     

Consumer relationship fading

This paper explores the phenomenon of consumer relationship fading with a series of three adjacent studies. Analyzing two longitudinal behavioral datasets, Study 1 shows that about one-third of the relationships could be described as fading. Drawing on prior work in the marriage disaffection literature, Study 2 defines relationship fading for the consumer marketing context as a process of gradual decline in consumers' intention to continue their relationship with a brand, generally manifested in negative feelings toward the brand, diminishing frequency and/or volume of transactions with it, and initiation of switching intentions. It further identifies disillusion, disaffection, and crossroads as three distinct fading stages, and outlines boundary conditions. Study 3 observes relationship fading through a diary study approach and finds attitude movement in both positive and negative directions between the stages. Further, while positive attitudes generally decline over the course of the fading trajectory, negative emotions peak at the penultimate fading stage and then level off at the final, crossroads stage. By defining and analyzing consumer relationship fading, we improve understanding of an under-researched, large segment of consumers.     

A Citation-Based Ranking of Strategic Management Journals

Rankings of strategy journals are important for authors, readers, and promotion and tenure committees. We present several rankings, based either on the number of articles that cited the journal or the per article impact. Our analyses cover various periods between 1991 and 2006, for most of which the Strategic Management Journal was in first place and Journal of Economics & Management Strategy (JEMS) second, although JEMS ranked first in certain instances. Long Range Planning and Technology Analysis & Strategic Management also achieve a top position. Strategic Organization makes an impressive entry and achieves a top position in 2003–2006.     

Mean and dispersion modelling for policy claims costs

A model for the statistical analysis of the total amount of insurance paid out on a policy is developed and applied. The model simultaneously deals with the number of claims (zero or more) and the amount of each claim. The number of claims is from a Poisson-based discrete distribution. Individual claim sizes are from a continuous right skewed distribution. The resulting distribution of total claim size is a mixed discrete-continuous model, with positive probability of a zero claim. The means and dispersions of the claim frequency and claim size distribution are modeled in terms of risk factors. The model is applied to a car insurance data set.     

Health Belief Model: Evaluating Marketing Promotion in a Public Vaccination Program

National health objectives are driven to increase participation rates. Individual health decisions are determined by attitudes, behavior, lifestyles, and government policies. This research, therefore, examined not just the development and delivery of a message targeting individual voluntary behavior change, but the intention of changes in social structures that will facilitate individuals reaching their potential; thus the purpose of this article is to shed light on the uptake of the human papillomavirus (HPV) immunization using the health belief model (HBM). Research was conducted with the use of focus groups by drawing on the framework of the HBM. This research approach is conceptual by nature, based on the virtue of marketing promotion and on HBM literature. Though offering the vaccine free to the general public provides additional evidence to certain groups on the intention to act or uptake of the vaccine, awareness levels were found to be poor despite increased efforts by the government trying to promote this vaccine. There was evidence that social capital and trust can produce effective communication message strategies that reinforce social bonds. This article provides an interesting basis for further investigation; however, as implausible as it seems the article also contributes to the concept of perceived benefits and of self-efficacy.     

In search of an institutional framework for anticorruption: Lessons from Scandinavia

Scandinavian countries continue to build strong reputations as the world's least corrupt countries. In this case study, in a search for an institutional framework that other countries and policy makers can learn from, we explore sources of high transparency and anticorruption norms in Scandinavia. The most important lesson from this study is that legislative, normative, and cultural institutional pillars must be aligned to achieve the highest level of transparency and anticorruption. We made three main observations. First, adequate and comprehensive legislation in addition to severe noncompliance consequences contribute to an ethical business environment in Scandinavian countries. Second, a willingness to embrace integrity norms and standards through active participation in international conventions and agreements on anticorruption movements contributing to high transparency and integrity management in the Scandinavian countries. Third, a national culture that emphasizes high governmental and civic trust makes bribery and corruption less sustainable. Residents' high level of trust in public officials and police in addition to high civil and media engagement in antibribery cases results in corruption being “starved of oxygen”. The findings suggest high trust levels, enforced regulative legislation, small country size, and high human development help craft a framework that drives a transparent business environment.