Imagining worse than reality: comparing beliefs and intentions between disaster evacuees and survey respondents1

We often credit disasters, and their coverage in the media, with changes in the public perception of risk associated with low-probability, high-consequence events (LPHCs). With a change in perceptions, we also expect changes in beliefs, preferences, and behaviors. Do beliefs and behaviors change in different ways for people who live through these LPHC critical events, as opposed to people who observe them? This study compares hypothetical hurricanes with actual hurricane effects in a survey quasi-experiment. Findings indicate that hypothetical disasters induce stronger reactions than those experienced in the natural world, as Hurricane Katrina bystanders imagine themselves incurring much higher damages, and being much less likely to return to live in their hurricane-damaged homes, than actual Hurricane Katrina evacuees. Ultimately, respondents considering a hypothetical low-probability, high-consequence event exhibit exaggerated beliefs and opposite decisions of those who actually lived through one of these events. Results underline the importance of examining the differences between public perceptions and experiential reality.     

Expropriation risk and housing prices: Evidence from an emerging market

This paper examines the microeconomic determinants of residential real estate prices in Caracas, Venezuela, using a private database containing 17,526 transactions from 2008 to 2009. The particular institutional characteristics of many countries in Latin America, and Venezuela in particular, where land invasions and expropriations (with only partial compensation) have been common threats to property owners, provide us with an opportunity to test the effects of these risks on housing prices using a unique database. The effect of these risks on property prices is negative and significant. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to quantify these impacts in the Hedonic pricing literature applied to real estate. Size, the number of parking spaces, the age of the property, the incidence of crime, and the average income in the neighborhood are significant determinants of prices. Finally, this paper analyzes the microeconomic determinants of housing prices at the municipal level.     

Politics, Economics, and the Regulation of Direct Interstate Shipping in the Wine Industry

In 1986, California passed legislation restricting the direct importation of wine from another state by California residents unless the originating state allowed direct shipment from California wineries to residents in that state. The result has been a patchwork of direct shipment regulations across states. We examine how various economic and public interest factors affect the likelihood that a state adopts a change in its direct shipment regulation and the nature of that change. Our results suggest that private and public sector economic considerations lie at the root of direct shipment regulations in the wine industry.     

Persistent poverty and informal credit

This paper explores the consequences of nonlinear wealth dynamics for the formation of bilateral credit arrangements to help manage idiosyncratic risk. Using original data on expected wealth dynamics, social networks and informal loans among southern Ethiopian pastoralist households, we find that the threshold at which expected wealth dynamics bifurcate serves as a focal point at which lending is concentrated. Informal lending responds to recipients' losses but only so long as the recipients are not “too poor”. Our results suggest that when shocks can have long term effects, loans are best understood as providing a safety net rather than a scale-neutral insurance mechanism. Furthermore, the persistently poor are excluded from social networks that are necessary to obtain loans given in response to shocks.     

Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator

We extend the simulation results in Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006, The log of gravity, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88, 641-658) by considering a novel data-generating process. Our results confirm that the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator is generally well behaved, even when the proportion of zeros in the sample is very large.     

The Usage of Electronic Data Interchange in the Hotel Industry

This study investigates the major factors that can influence electronic data interchange (EDI) within the hotel industry. Results illustrate that some profile, channel, and task variables can influence EDI usage in the areas of purchasing, financing, and strategy. By identifying and testing relevant intraorganizational variables, this study offers insights to academics and practitioners regarding the usage of EDI within the hotel industry. Indications are EDI could become an important tool for hotels to use in conducting business in both an interorganizational and intraorganizational manner.     

Applicability of global value chains analysis to tourism: issues of governance and upgrading

Tourism firms are increasingly integrated in value chains that often operate across many different countries. As a result, the concepts and the methodology of the global value chains begin to be applied to the tourism industry. This paper aims to explore the applicability of this methodological approach for a specific service industry, such as tourism. It pays particular attention to the impact of different patterns of governance within global tourism value chains on the possible forms of upgrading. First, a set of regional case studies carried out on this subject leads us to identify the main patterns of governance in the Andalusian tourism industry. Secondly, an empirical analysis allows us to consider in which way upgrading can vary according to the governance patterns.     

Monetary policy shocks and productivity measures in the G-7 countries

An implication of two-country international real business cycle models is that total factor productivity should be an exogenous stochastic process. Economic theories which feature labor hoarding, variable capacity utilization, and increasing returns predict that measured productivity shifts are not exogenous; instead, expansionary aggregate demand shocks should lead to an increase in measured productivity. For each of the G-7 countries, this paper measures quarterly aggregate total factor productivity for the domestic country and its rest-of-world (G-6) counterpart. In each case the domestic productivity measures are not strictly exogenous: expansionary U.S. monetary policy shocks, as well as other G-6 monetary policy shocks, lead to productivity expansions. The evidence indicates that international business cycle models are misspecified unless they feature endogenous productivity mechanisms.Received: June 2001, Accepted: December 2001, JEL Classification: E5, F4Correspondence to: Charles L. EvansFor their helpful comments, we thank Mario Crucini, Patricia Reynolds, and Steve Strongin. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.