Valuation under imperfect information: Bayesian learning from the performance of the firm and the market

This paper develops a valuation model for a project or firm in the presence of uncertainty about the mean of the probability distribution of the cash flows generated by the project. Its major point is that in the presence of parameter uncertainty the value of the project is smaller than in the case where the mean cash flows is perfectly known. The second point is that when there is a known covariance between project cash flows and aggregate market cash flows investors can learn about the unknown mean cash flows by observing the market. This is referred to as ‘learning from the market’.     

New Product Development Practices of Industrial Marketers*

William L. Moore personally interviewed a number of senior managers employed in 25 large industrial marketing companies about new product development practices. These managers are familiar with all phases of the development of typical new products, from the time ideas are generated until market introduction. Most respondents were either division heads or those directly responsible for a division's new product development program. In agreement with a previous study, the use of formal new product strategies and sophisticated quantitative marketing research techniques was found to be lacking in most companies. However, many other elements of the new product development process were carried out more completely than previously reported. For example, respondents reflected sensitivity to informal understanding of new product strategies. A number of the less sophisticated, small scale qualitative research methods actually used may be more appropriate than more sophisticated methods. While several research areas are suggested, the general assessment of the new product practices of these firms is more positive than that of Feldman and Page.     

FOCUS: Using a Computerised Game in Teaching Business Ethics

Games have become a standard tool in management education. The authors have cooperated on developing just such a teaching aid for business people and management students interested in playing the business game ethically. Dr Higginson is Director of The Ridley Hall Foundation, Ridley Hall, Cambridge, CB3 9HG and Geoff Moore is Principal Lecturer at Newcastle Business School, University of Northumbria at Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST.     

LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION POLICIES AND MEAT PROCESSING MARGINS: THE CASE OF NEW ZEALAND, 1967-1988*

The New Zealand export meat industry has been through a considerable number of changes in the 1980s. The deregulation of export slaughter facilities, Supplementary Minimum Prices, Producer Board intervention, declining livestock numbers and domestic cost pressures have all affected the performance of the domestically based processing sector. Major changes in market access and demand have influenced off-shore marketing operations, particularly for sheepmeats. Additionally, there has been a change in the type of meat exported with a greater proportion of further processed product shipped in recent years. As an example of the impact of these developments on livestock producers, the producer share of the United Kingdom wholesale market return for a representative prime lamb carcase has fallen from 40 per cent in 1978 to 25 per cent in 1988. In this article the pattern of intervention in the New Zealand pastoral meat industries from the mid-1960s is detailed, emphasising the different environments of the beef and sheepmeat enterprises. Then the principal factors influencing domestic processing margins for these products are empirically examined. Alternative model specifications and alternative estimation techniques are compared and contrasted. The results of these analyses are discussed in terms of the historical patterns of assistance and structural change, and in terms of current rationalisation pressures on the meat processing sector.     

Learning times: A key factor in managerial personnel decisions

How often should a man be inducted, socialized, trained, developed, and then promoted or transferred from one department to another? The answer should depend to some extent on the average learning time for the manager's new job, and the company's feeling about a “break-even” or “pay-back” period when the employee works to “pay back” the organization for providing him with the job learning opportunity.