A century of equity premium predictability and the consumption–wealth ratio: An international perspective

This paper re-examines the predictive ability of the consumption–wealth ratio (cay) on the equity premium using hand-collected annual data spanning one century for four major economies. In addition to statistical tests of out-of-sample forecast accuracy, we measure the economic value of the predictive information in cay in a stylized asset allocation strategy. We find that cay does not contain predictive power prior to World War II, when a structural break occurs for all countries. In the postwar period, while statistical tests provide mixed evidence, economic criteria uncover substantial predictive power in cay, further enhanced when allowing for economically meaningful restrictions.     

Nutrition and national development: Establishing the connection

The three major strands of the nutrition planning literature — the socio-economic consequences of malnutrition, its determinants and characteristics, and the solutions offered to the problem — are examined by the authors and found wanting. There are serious limitations both in analysis of the problems and proposals for action in most work on nutrition policies because macro-level social, institutional, economic and political factors are neglected.     

INCOME TAXES AND THE COMPOSITION OF PAY: EVIDENCE FROM THE BRITISH HOUSEHOLD PANEL SURVEY

According to the standard principal‐agent model, the optimal composition of pay should balance the provision of incentives with the individual demand for insurance. Do income taxes alter this balance? We show that the relative share of Performance‐related pay (PRP), on total pay is reduced by higher average and marginal income taxes. Empirical evidence based on the British Household Panel Survey is consistent with the theoretical predictions of the tax–augmented principal‐agent model. Our estimates suggest that a 10% reduction in the marginal income tax rate, holding the average tax rate constant, increases the share of PRP in total pay by 2.25–3.02%, depending on the empirical specification. Similarly, a 10% reduction in the average income tax rate, holding the marginal tax rate constant, increases the share of PRP in total pay by 5.10–5.27%.     

Social Interactions, Local Spillovers and Unemployment

I analyse a model that explicitly incorporates local interactions and allows agents to exchange information about job openings within their social networks. Agents are more likely to be employed if their social contacts are also employed. The model generates a stationary distribution of unemployment that exhibits positive spatial correlations. I estimate the model via an indirect inference procedure, using Census Tract data for Chicago. I find a significantly positive amount of social interactions across neighbouring tracts. The local spillovers are stronger for areas with less educated workers and higher fractions of minorities. Furthermore, they are shaped by ethnic dividing lines and neighbourhood boundaries.     

On the stability of the Klein-I model

This paper presents a revision of the numerical results by Theil and Boot (1962) on the asymptotic standard errors of characteristic roots in the Klein-I model.     

The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond

A large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate. However, there is evidence that the term structure of forward premia contains valuable information for forecasting future spot exchange rates and that exchange rate dynamics display nonlinearities. This paper proposes a term-structure forecasting model of exchange rates based on a regime-switching vector equilibrium correction model which is novel in this context. Our model significantly outperforms both a random walk and, to a lesser extent, a linear term-structure vector equilibrium correction model for four major dollar rates across a range of horizons.     

HUMAN CAPITAL MEASUREMENT: A SURVEY

Abstract After a short history of the concept of human capital (henceforth HC) in economic thought ( Section 1 ), this study presents the two main methods for estimating the value of the stock of HC – the retrospective and prospective one – with a review of the models proposed ( Section 2 ). These methods are linked both to the theory of HC investment as a rational choice ( Section 3 ), the literature analysing the contribution of HC investment to economic growth and the HC estimating method through educational attainment ( Section 4 ). The more recent literature on HC as a latent variable is also assessed ( Section 5 ) and a new method of estimation where HC is seen both as an unknown function of formative indicators and as a ‘latent effect’ underlying earned income is proposed ( Section 6 ). Section 7 concludes.     

Quality risk aversion, conjectures, and new product diffusion

In this paper, we provide a generalization of the standard models of the diffusion of a new product. Consumers are heterogeneous and risk averse, and the firm is uncertain about the demand curve: both learn from past observations. The attitude towards risk has important effects with regard to the diffusion pattern. In our model, downward-biased signals to consumers can prevent the success of the product, even if its objective quality is high: a “lock-in” result. We show, in addition, that the standard logistic pattern can be derived from the model. Finally, we discuss the steady states of the learning dynamics, with regard to the multiplicity and the local stability of equilibria, and to their welfare properties.     

Corporate codes of ethics and cash holdings: International evidence

In the presence of agency costs, managers retain cash for their own benefit at the expense of shareholder wealth. Extending prior literature on the role of corporate governance in mitigating the effects of agency conflicts on corporate cash holdings, we study a governance mechanism that has largely been overlooked, namely, corporate codes of ethics. We find a negative association between code of ethics quality and cash holdings, which suggests that managers hold less cash when the firm has a strong code of ethics in place. The effect is greater when agency costs are elevated due to weaker country-level investor protections. We also find that payouts and the marginal value of cash holdings to investors are increasing in code quality. Overall, our results are consistent with codes of ethics helping to limit opportunistic behaviour from managers when determining the firm's level of cash holdings.     

From FDI network topology to macroeconomic instability

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - Fragmentation of production undoubtedly constitutes a possible channel of economic contagion and could play a key role in the study of systemic...