How sticky are local expenditures in Italy? Assessing the relevance of the flypaper effect through municipal data

An extensive literature analysed the impact of upper tier transfers on spending behaviour of lower level governments finding evidence of a flypaper effect, an overreaction to varying grants from upper tiers. Our work seeks to supplement a dearth of evidence for the Italian case by focusing on the responsiveness of municipal expenditures to State grants. We use a panel of almost 8,000 municipalities from 1999 to 2006. Budget data are matched with several other information sources, enabling us to investigate also the role played by some important political factors like the electoral cycle or the political strength of local cabinets. Application of panel data techniques with the use of instrumental variables and a dynamic setting highlights the presence of a sizeable flypaper effect and a significant role for political variables while the asymmetric response is not confirmed in all specifications.     

Improving the Forecast of Longevity by Combining Models

Mortality is a dynamic process whose future evolution over time poses important challenges for life insurance, pension funds, public policy, and fiscal planning. In this paper, we propose two contributions: (1) a new dynamic corrective methodology of the predictive accuracy of the existing mortality projection models, by modeling a measure of their fitting errors as a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process and; (2) various out-of-sample validation methods. Besides the usual static method, we develop a dynamic one allowing us to catch the change in behavior of the underlying data. For our numerical application, we choose the Cairns-Blake-Dowd (or M5) model. Using the Italian and French females mortality data and implementing the backtesting procedure, we empirically test the ex-post forecasting performance of the CBD model both for itself (CBD) and corrected by the CIR process (mCBD). We focus on age 65, but we show results for a wide range of ages, also much younger, and for cohort data. On the basis of average measures of forecasting errors and information criteria, we show that the mCBD model is parsimonious and provides better results in terms of predictive accuracy than the CBD model itself.     

Is an Increase in the Minimum Retirement Age Always Desirable? The Case of Notional Defined Contribution Systems

Several countries have recently introduced reforms that aim to increase the neutrality of their pension system by introducing an incentives‐disincentives mechanism or by replacing their traditional defined‐benefit system with a Notional Defined Contribution method. This paper evaluates the financial effects of an increase in the minimum retirement age in countries where a Notional Defined Contribution system exists. We show that such a reform produces a positive effect on the financial situation of the pension system (by generating surpluses or by reducing deficits) in the short and in the medium run, but it becomes completely ineffective in the long run. This result implies that in countries where the pension system is sufficiently neutral such a reform is not appropriate to solve the problem of population ageing which is a long‐run problem.     

Motivation crowding in environmental protection: Evidence from an artefactual field experiment

This paper examines how motivation, crowding and social image affect environmental conservation decisions. An artefactual field experiment conducted in Bolivia is used to reproduce the trade-off between individual and social benefits in natural resource use and test the effect of non-monetary and non-regulatory incentives on pro-social behavior for environmental conservation. The results show the presence of a social norm prescribing positive contribution towards environmental protection, and that external incentives have heterogeneous effects on pro-social behavior depending on how they influence reputation and self-image. The experimental results differ from those of analogous experiments conducted in the laboratory, and are instead consistent with those from field experiments on common-pool resource management. This fact suggests caution in generalizing conclusions, reached in the laboratory, to different settings and populations.     

Culture and human capital in a two-sector endogenous growth model

Recent literature in the field of cultural economics highlights a possible inversion in the usual causality relation (from economic growth to culture) and points out that culture may represent an important driver of economic growth. By viewing culture in line with Throsby’s (2001) definition of cultural capital (i.e., an asset of tangible and intangible cultural expressions), in this article we analyze one possible channel through which culture may positively affect economic growth, namely the existence of a relationship of complementarity between cultural and human capital investments. Using a two-sector endogenous growth model, we find that in the long run a higher growth rate of real per-capita income can be attained the more cultural and human capital investments are complementary for each other in the process leading to agents’ skill acquisition. We also analyze the conditions under which an increase of the cultural capital share in total GDP can be conducive to a rise of real per-capita income.     

Revenue management policies for the truck rental industry

In this paper, we consider the problem of managing a fleet of trucks with different capacity to serve the requests of different customers that arise randomly over time. The problem is formulated via dynamic programming. Linear programming approximations of the problem are presented and their solutions are exploited to develop partitioned booking limits and bid prices policies. The numerical experiments show that the proposed policies can be profitably used in supporting the decision maker.     

Playing the wrong game: An experimental analysis of relational complexity and strategic misrepresentation

It has been suggested that players often produce simplified and/or misspecified mental models of strategic decisions [Kreps, D., 1990. Game Theory and Economic Modeling. Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford]. We submit that the relational structure of players' preferences in a game is a source of cognitive complexity, and may be an important driver of such simplifications. We provide a classification of order structures in two-person games based on the properties of monotonicity and projectivity, and present experiments in which subjects construct representations of games of different relational complexity and subsequently play the games according to these representations. Experimental results suggest that relational complexity matters. More complex games are harder to represent, and this difficulty seems correlated with short term memory capacity. In addition, most erroneous representations are simpler than the correct ones. Finally, subjects who misrepresent the games behave consistently with such representations, suggesting that in many strategic settings individuals may act optimally on the ground of simplified and mistaken premises.     

Convergence problems in stochastic programming models with probabilistic constraints

We consider a stochastic programming model with probabilistic constraints and assume to have only empirical estimates of the true probability distribution of the random variables involved in the model. By using properties of semicontinuous and quasi-convex/quasi-concave limetions, we can weaken the traditional assumptions on the functions involved. We generalize both the functional form and the mathematical properties of the functions and then prove the almost sure uniform convergence of the sequence of approximate problems to the true one.     

Are performance measures equally stable?

Managed portfolio performance evaluation is an important issue from both academics’ and investors’ points of view. One important aspect concerns the choice of the measure used to assess performance, because each index offers a different perspective about the trade-off between return level and risk exposure. A related crucial issue is the stability of measures over time and, hence, their predictive power about future results. In this work, we address the problem of evaluating of the stability of a performance measure. First, we discuss the use of alternative criteria to measure stability and propose a stability index based on changes of ranks over several periods of time. We also propose a statistical test to evaluate the homogeneity of the stability of alternative performance measures. Second, we suggest a composite performance measure, built as a linear combination of various indexes, specifically conceived to be maximally stable over time while preserving information about risk-adjusted return behavior. An application to a set of US mutual funds belonging to the Large Blend category shows how these methods work.