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61.
Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models
The aim of this paper is to analyze the performance of alternative forecasting methods to predict the index of industrial
production in Italy from 1 to 3 months ahead. We use twelve different models, from simple ARIMA to dynamic factor models exploiting
the timely information of up to 110 short-term indicators, both qualitative and quantitative. This allows to assess the relevance
for the forecasting practice of alternative combinations of types of data (real-time and latest available), estimation methods
and periods. Out-of-sample predictive ability tests stress the relevance of more indicators in disaggregate models over sample
periods covering a complete business cycle (about 7 years in Italy). Our findings downgrade the emphasis on both the estimation
method and data revision issues. In line with the classical “average puzzle”, the use of simple averages of alternative forecasts
often improves the predictive ability of their single components, mainly over short horizons. Finally, selected indicators
and factor-based models always perform significantly better than ARIMA models, suggesting that the short-run indicator signal
always dominates the noise component. On this regard, selected indicators models can further increase the amount of signal
extracted to improve up to 30–40% the short-run predictive ability of factor-based models and to forecast-encompass them. 相似文献
62.
This paper studies the effect of intention-based reciprocity preferences on the free-riding problem arising in partnerships. Our results suggest a tendency of efficient partnerships to consist of members whose sensitivity to reciprocity is – individually or jointly – sufficiently high. Sufficient conditions for the implementation of the efficient strategy profile require a reciprocity-based sharing rule so that each partner gets a fraction of the output, which is a percentage of his own sensitivity to reciprocity with respect to the overall sensitivity in the team. Finally, we introduce the concept of psychological strong Nash equilibrium and show that it allows for the unique and collusion-proof implementation of the efficient strategy profile. 相似文献
63.
The strong and prolonged deviation of money growth from its reference value since 2001 has caused concern among policy-makers about the upside risks to price stability from monetary developments. In this article we provide evidence that these risks might have been smaller until 2005 than regularly assumed. Three basic findings support this view. First, a sectoral breakdown of money holdings shows that current excess liquidity conditions have been partly related to the acceleration of nonbank financial intermediaries’ money demand, as well as to the accumulation of marketable instruments. Such increases are likely to be associated more to portfolio choices than to transaction motives. Second, evidence from balance sheet data on investment funds points to a general increase in the relative importance of this sector in the economy, rather than to a higher degree of liquidity of their asset positions, thus reflecting, to a large extent, a permanent change in the financial structure of the economy. Third, excess liquidity measures that exclude nonbank financial intermediaries’ money holdings have more predictive power for future inflation at medium-term horizons than those that include them. 相似文献
64.
Complexity and technological change: knowledge interactions and firm level total factor productivity
The analysis of social interactions as drivers of economic dynamics represents a growing field within the economics of complexity. Social interactions are a specific form of interdependence whereby the changes in the behavior of other agents affect utility functions for households and production functions for producers. In this paper, we apply the general concept of social interactions to the area of the economics of innovation and we articulate the view that knowledge interactions play a central role in the generation of new technological knowledge so that innovation becomes the emergent property of a system, rather than the product of individual actions. In particular, we articulate and test the hypothesis that different layers of knowledge interactions play a crucial role in determining the rate of technological change that each firm is able to introduce. The paper presents an empirical analysis of firm level total factor productivity (TFP) for a sample of 7,020 Italian manufacturing companies observed during the years 1996–2005. This will enable us to identify the distinctive role of regional, inter-industrial and localized intra-industrial knowledge interactions as distinctive and significant determinants, together with internal research and innovation efforts, of changes in firm level TFP. 相似文献
65.
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67.
Giuseppe Carabetta 《Accounting Education: An International Journal》2013,22(1):105-107
This postcard reflects on an issue common to many academics, whether they teach accounting, politics or—as in my case—commercial law to business and economics students. Creating an open and effective relationship with students is a balancing act undertaken by educators across the board—and no less by my accounting colleagues down the hall. In teaching commercial law to accounting students, I was recently reminded of the importance and occasional difficulty in maintaining a healthy ‘two-way’ relationship. I trust the following may connect with accounting educators and others who are also trying to achieve the right balance. 相似文献
68.
Eleonora Pantano Gianpaolo Iazzolino Giuseppe Migliano 《Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services》2013,20(2):225-233
In recent years, a great deal of research focused on the introduction of advanced technologies for making traditional stores more appealing and attractive, with several benefits for the retail process. Since the introduction of these innovative systems involves several risks that can have a negative impact on business profitability, this paper aims at investigating to what extent it is possible to reduce these risks by proposing an explorative framework for a successful risk management strategies in retail context. Key results of this research concern the importance of the risk management also for retail sector, with emphasis on the introduction/adoption decision of innovative technologies in the points of sale, with consequences for retail-oriented industries. To achieve this task, the current study synthesizes findings from several fields such as management, marketing, and computer science. 相似文献
69.
This study investigates the effects of buyout deals on the ex-post performance of target companies. The analysis is based on a sample of 241 private-to-private buyouts involving European companies between 1997 and 2004 and a control sample of non-buyouts selected through a propensity score matching methodology. The paper explores three different dimensions of firm performance: size, profitability and productivity. The results indicate a positive impact of buyouts on the growth of total assets and of employment in target firms in the short- and mid-term. An equivalent clear pattern cannot be identified for productivity, while we estimate a lower operating profitability for buyout companies with respect to the control group three years after a deal is made. When we restrict the analysis to the sub-sample of buyout companies, we find that generalist funds negatively and significantly impact the mean ex-post operating profitability of PE-backed firms, while turnaround specialists are positively associated with operating profitability. The evidence also highlights that target companies whose lead investor is located in the same country show relatively higher ex-post profitability performance. 相似文献
70.
ABSTRACTThis article contributes to the existing literature on geographical indications by observing consumers’ stated preference for extra-virgin olive oil in two groups differing in their regional identity. In particular, consumers from two groups were asked to rank products in a contingent ranking survey. One group (“insiders,” Sicilian consumers) shared origin with a good product (Sicilian oil); the other group (“outsiders,” Rome and Milan) presented “no association” consumer-product. Results indicate that insiders are willing to pay more for goods originating from the region they identify with compared with a region associated with outsiders. Identity seems to give a bias by which a local product is not necessarily perceived as superior in absolute terms, but in relative terms: outside products are never considered better than inside options but are either inferior or equal in perceived value. 相似文献