Epistemological reasons for preferring component analysis to factor analysis

Spearman's and Thomson's mathematical controversy over factor theory was forgotten when it became evident that empirical tetrad-differences bound away from zero (and when empirical evidence argued the need for extracting more factors from a matrix). In fact, both their models lead to zero tetraddifferences. Being more interested in the psychological than in the mathematical aspects of Spearman's model. Thompson remained indifferent to mathematical aspects of multiple factor analysis when Thurstone theorized it. Thus, he did not perceive that his counter-example negated the assumption Thrustone shared the rank of the matrix. The idea that components to be extracted must be equal to the rank of the matrix is not assumed in Hotelling's component model: as a result, this is the first epistemological reason for preferring component analysis to factor analysis. A second epistemological reason is the central theorem of Thurstone's multiple-factor model, which can be criticized because it is an assumption that, the rank of a complete matrix being n, it becomes k when commonalities are in the principal diagonal. This assumption goes against common sense, a fact demonstrated through comparison between residuals after k components have been extracted and after k principal factors have been extracted.     

Consumption smoothing and income redistribution

We show theoretically that income redistribution benefits borrowing-constrained individuals more than is implied by standard relative-income and uninsurable-risk considerations. Empirically, we find in international opinion-survey data that younger and lower-income individuals express stronger support for government redistribution in countries where consumer credit is less easily available. This evidence supports our theoretical perspective if such individuals are more strongly affected by tighter credit supply, in that expectations of higher incomes in the future increase their propensity to borrow.     

Selective immigration policies, human capital accumulation and migration duration in infinite horizon

An increasing literature fosters selective immigration policies as a tool to increase human capital in both source and destination countries. These policies are supposed to prompt incentives to education, and–if selection is sufficiently severe–to increase the human capital stock in source countries. Nonetheless, when compared to open migration, selective policies make returns to education uncertain, and they may harm incentives to invest in human capital. As a consequence, they may reduce the human capital stock even though selection is “severe”. Moreover, when repeated migration is possible, they backfire on migration duration. We obtain our results in an infinite-horizon model that, unlike the current literature, places no restriction on the number of possible migration spells and allows for the possibility of a forced emigration.     

Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area

The creation of the Euro area has increased the importance of obtaining timely information about short-term changes in the area's real activity. In this paper we propose a number of alternative short term forecasting models, ranging from simple ARIMA models to more complex cointegrated VAR and conditional models, to forecast the index of industrial production in the euro area. A conditional error-correction model in which the aggregate index of industrial production for the area is explained by the US industrial production index and the business confidence index from the European Commission harmonised survey on manufacturing firms achieves the best score in terms of forecasting capacity. First version received: Jan. 2000/Final version received: March 2000     

A routing and location model for food waste recovery in the retail and distribution phase

This paper presents a routing and location (R&L) model able to help design an efficient reverse logistics channel for food waste, with particular attention to the waste generated at the retail stage of a food supply chain (FSC). The model, developed in Microsoft Excel^TM, is detailed along with its application in the Emilia-Romagna region of Italy, which is currently the location of a research project aimed at finding alternative ways to recover food waste rather than disposing of it in landfill sites. Several analyses are carried out exploiting the model, to derive some findings about the economic profitability of setting up a reverse logistics channel to recover food waste in the targeted region, and divert it to alternative use. As there are currently no studies that examine the problem of recovering food waste in Italy, this paper is expected to represent an interesting addition to the literature on this issue.     

Converging and diverging pressures in PBB development: the experiences of Finland and Sweden

This paper aims to provide institutional explanations for the development of performance-based budgeting (PBB). Particularly, we explore the tensions between converging and diverging pressures. By analysing PBB in two countries with significant experience with it, Finland and Sweden, the research explains why we observe only evolutionary changes in actual budgetary practices. Indeed, the introduction of this practice is part of a global reform process undertaken over decades by public sector organizations. Nevertheless, the countries still struggle with PBB and, despite global converging pressures, diverging pressures shape its development, challenging its implementation and use, and paving the way for evolutionary changes.     

The effect of female representation on political budget cycle and public expenditure: Evidence from Italian municipalities

This study analyzes the impact of the gender composition of political institutions on the political budget cycle (PBC) and on the size and structure of public expenditure. An instrumental variable approach is implemented to evaluate the influence of female politicians in municipal councils. The introduction of gender quotas for Italian municipalities is used as an exogenous variation in female participation in politics. The results show that: (i) fluctuations in local public spending are only slightly affected by the presence of a wider female representation; (ii) an increase in the number of elected women reduces the overall amount of public expenditure; (iii) this reduction involves fields typically affected by PBC (e.g., roads' maintenance) except those related to females' needs (e.g., kindergarten, primary education, and social care).