Expected utility theory and the experiments

The experimental evidence against expected utility theo or unconvincing. When one modifies the experiments to mi tends to support traditional theory.Dewey H. Johnson Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, College of Business Administration, University of South Carolina. I am grateful for comments from seminar participants at the University of Melbourne, University of South Carolina, University of Stockholm, and the University of Western Ontario. John Hey provided a firm, but sympathetic, editorial hand.     

Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market

This paper tests the effects of central bank intervention on the ex ante volatility of $/DM and $/yen exchange rates between 1985 and 1991. In contrast to previous research which employed GARCH estimates of conditional volatility, we estimate ex ante volatility using the implied volatilities of currency option prices. We also control for the effects of other macroeconomic announcements. We find little support for the hypothesis that central bank intervention decreases expected exchange rate volatility. Instead, central bank intervention is generally associated with a positive change in ex ante exchange rate volatility, or with no change.     

Estimating the Euler equation for output

New Keynesian macroeconomic models have generally emphasized that expectations of future output are a key factor in determining current output. The theoretical motivation for such forward-looking behavior relies on a straightforward generalization of the well-known Euler equation for consumption. In this paper, we use maximum likelihood and generalized method of moments (GMM) methods to explore the empirical importance of output expectations. We find little evidence that rational expectations of future output help determine current output, especially after taking into account the small-sample bias in GMM.     

The interdisciplinarity of evolutionary approaches to human behavior: A key to survival in the Ivory Archipelago

This paper explores the degree of interdisciplinarity of evolutionary approaches to the study of human behavior, and the implications that any such interdisciplinarity may have for the future of evolutionary psychology (EP) as a field of scholarship. To gauge the extent of interdisciplinarity of EP, the departmental affiliation of first-authors from 1000 journal articles evenly distributed across ten leading peer-reviewed psychology journals was assessed. Findings show that journals that are evolutionary-based have more first-authors from outside of psychology, and also include a wider variety of represented disciplines. These findings are discussed in terms of their influence on the future of EP, as a model for interdisciplinary research. EP's future will be successful if it continues to promote interdisciplinarity as well as recognize the epistemological worth of multiple evolutionary paradigms and frameworks. Evolutionary principles have been successfully applied to a broad range of topics, suggesting there is great utility in evolution serving as a common language for interdisciplinary pursuits within the behavioral and social sciences. As such, academic programs such as Evolutionary Studies (EvoS) programs, whose presence continues to increase across academic institutions worldwide, epitomize the future of successful interdisciplinary scholarly training.     

Reflections on an Intellectual Partner: My Life with Linda Datcher Loury

My intellectual partnership with Linda Datcher Loury began 37 years ago at MIT. It ended with her tragic, premature death last September. As a husband and a father, I will miss my wife tremendously, of course. And, as a scholar, I will see things a little less clearly, express myself a bit less surely, and ponder the often incomprehensible nature of social life with less confidence without my intellectual companion and life partner. The light of my understanding has grown dimmer and the path ahead is unclear.     

Quota prices as indicators of comparative advantage in supply‐managed industries

The Canadian dairy, egg, broiler, and turkey industries operate under supply management, a policy regime that sets product prices and allocates production among provinces and ultimately among farms through quotas. The Canadian Farm Products Agencies Act requires that comparative advantage be used to guide the allocation of new quota when increases in consumer demand necessitate increased production. This requirement, however, has not been met in practice. We develop a proposal by Meilke to use quota prices as measures of comparative advantage. We evaluate the quota price approach and other proposed methods, from a Hayekian and Coasean market process perspective. We conclude that quota prices offer an economically justifiable indicator of provincial comparative advantage. We develop an individual‐level general equilibrium model of quota exchange to illustrate the informational content of quota prices as indicators of comparative advantage. We also discuss potential practical challenges of using quota prices as indicators of comparative advantage.