Analysis of non-stationary dynamics in the financial system

Novel data-driven analyses, appropriate for detecting economic instability in non-stationary time series, are developed using functional principal component analysis (fPCA) and Synchrosqueezing. fPCA is applied in a new way, aggregating multiple financial time series to identify periods of macroeconomic instability. Synchrosqueezing, a technique which generates a time-series’ time-dependent spectral decomposition, is modified to develop a new quantitative measure of local dynamical changes and structural breaks. The merit of this integrated technique is demonstrated by analyzing financial data from 1986 to 2012 that includes equity indices, securities and commodities, and foreign exchange. Both procedures successfully detect key historic periods of instability. Moreover, the results reveal distinctions between periods of long-term gradual change in addition to structural breaks. These tools offer new insights into the analysis of financial instability.     

Modeling and Computing Transactions Costs for Purchasers of Housing Services

This paper models, as equilibrium behavior, buyers' behaviors under transactions costs and market failure constraints. It derives equilibrium conditions and it shows how they differ from unconstrained models. Standard utility and cost parameters are then used to estimate the economic costs of the constraints, which may be interpreted, at the margin, as the transactions costs of moving. If transactions costs are greater than the economic costs of the constraints, the household remains in a residence, even in response to changed price and income expectations. Changes in expected prices and incomes lead to changed housing demand even when the household cannot adjust housing consumption between periods. These findings have implications for empirical work with both cross-section and panel data sets.     

Evidence of Racial Discrimination in Different Dimensions of Owner-Occupied Housing Search

This paper examines the incidence and extent of racial discrimination in various dimensions of owner-occupied housing search. Audit data for sales units (1980-90) from the Fair Housing Center of metropolitan Detroit is used in an ordered probit framework. Agents' own prejudices and the prejudices of their customers are shown to be significant in explaining discrimination. Results also indicate that white home seekers are steered toward more white and affluent neighborhoods.     

An analysis of the effectiveness of public accounting internship programs at major New York city CPA firms

This study examines the effectiveness of public accounting internship programs at large CPA firms in New York City. It was found that these programs are effective in helping interns obtain a better understanding of professional practice except in the area relating to specialization.     

Integrated data-driven analytics to identify instability signatures in nonstationary financial time series

With the objective of identifying instability signatures of the financial system, this article integrates two classes of data-driven techniques. The first class of techniques is utilized to investigate macroeconomic behaviour by aggregating an ensemble of heterogeneous nonstationary time-series data and the second class of techniques examines the local dynamics of the microstructures in each time series. Moving window principal component analysis (PCA) and functional PCA (fPCA) are shown to extract collective signatures of the financial system for understanding macroeconomic behaviour, and the Synchrosqueezing and Markov switching techniques are used to study local dynamics within each individual time series. The integrated data analytics successfully identifies the diverse events from 1986 to 2012. All events, both major and minor, have been identified by fPCA. The major economic events, especially the 2008 Great Recession, along with several minor events, showed a strong leading indicator in the density index derived from Synchrosqueezing. The capability of this integrated analytics suite is demonstrated in this article, and it motivates further studies encompassing data sets from broader sectors. As a complement to existing model-driven approach, this would lead to achieving a robust and reliable method that can help in taking measures to avoid catastrophic collapse in the constantly evolving financial system.     

Post‐cold war self‐determination: Ireland and east Timor

The national conflicts centred on Northern Ireland and East Timor bear little resemblance. Yet the two main political groupings aspiring to national liberation, Sinn Féin in Ireland and the National Council of Timorese Resistance (CNRT) have developed remarkably similar peace proposals. These define the process of reconstruction, protection of human rights and self‐government as separable from issues of state sovereignty, at least in the medium term. Both have promoted the creation of transitional structures to address these issues, delaying self‐determination in order to promote conflict resolution and political reconciliation. The two peace initiatives have been relatively successful in seizing the moral high ground, and have forced the respective state authorities to participate in a process of peace‐making that has substantially recast the exercise of political authority.     

Is there an S in urban housing supply? or What on earth happened in Detroit?

This article examines the substantial housing stock declines between 2000 and 2010 in many major US central cities. It updates an analysis first formulated in the 1970s, of an S-shaped housing supply curve, to explain decreases in absolute housing stocks. Explanatory variables include Metropolitan Statistical Area standardized rents, center city prior occupancy rates, regional unemployment rates, and a set of regional and state dummy variables. The analysis provides strong evidence of a lower tail of the S, and more tentative evidence of an upper tail. Market fundamentals explain a considerable portion of the large housing stock losses, but in several cities loss of dwelling units and housing abandonment were worse than could be explained by the fundamentals.     

Trent J. MacDonald,The Political Economy of Non-Territorial Exit: Cryptosecession. Northampton: Edward Elgar, 2019. x + 233 pages. USD 125.00 (hardback)

The Review of Austrian Economics -