Growth, crisis and change in the insurance industry: a retrospect

The insurance industry currently finds itself in a revolutionary situation characterized, in part, by the impact of new direct marketing techniques, facilitated by new technologies; by corporate restructuring and the creation of international mega-corporations; and by the accelerating globalization of the industry. This article surveys recent research on insurance history with the aim of placing these developments in their long-run context. Three areas are examined for evidence of continuities and discontinuities with the past: namely, the impact of technology, the interaction between markets and organizational change, and the globalization of insurance and its relationship to economic growth.     

Stock Index‐linked Debt and Shareholder Value: Evidence from the Paris Bourse

French banks and non‐financial companies issue index‐linked debt whose value at maturity is indexed to the CAC 40 or to a basket of European indices. This paper examines stock announcement effects associated with these bonds on three dates: the date the issuer's General Assembly decides future capital needs, the publication in the journal of the COB (the stock market board), and the issue date. We find the issuance of index‐linked debt has significant positive announcement effects on the issue date, which we attribute to its market‐completion property. In order to examine further whether market completion is at play, we decompose the value of the bond at issue into its straight bond and option values. We determine that the bonds are overvalued again supporting market completion.     

Default- and call-adjusted duration for corporate bonds

Call and default can potentially alter the timing and amounts of promised cashflows for callable, corporate bonds. While prior research has indicated the theoretical importance of adjusting Macaulay duration for the impacts of default and call, the question of their relative impact remains a matter of debate [The High Yield Debt Market, Dow Jones Irwin, New York, 1990, p. 18; J. Finan. 53 (1998) 2225]. We develop a theoretical analysis incorporating both default and call effects on duration and test its implications employing a previously unexplored data base of Canadian, investment grade, corporate bond indices containing an unusual provision making it possible to identify callable and noncallable indices.     

Relative accuracy and predictive ability of direct valuation methods, price to aggregate earnings method and a hybrid approach

In this paper, we assess the relative performance of the direct valuation method and industry multiplier models using 41 435 firm‐quarter Value Line observations over an 11 year (1990–2000) period. Results from both pricing‐error and return‐prediction analyses indicate that direct valuation yields lower percentage pricing errors and greater return prediction ability than the forward price to aggregated forecasted earnings multiplier model. However, a simple hybrid combination of these two methods leads to more accurate intrinsic value estimates, compared to either method used in isolation. It would appear that fundamental analysis could benefit from using one approach as a check on the other.     

Does the Basle Capital Accord reduce bank fragility? An assessment of the value-at-risk approach

We examine the economic implications arising from a bank using a VaR-constrained mean-variance model for the selection of its trading portfolio as a consequence of the Basle Capital Accord. Surprisingly, we show that when a VaR constraint is imposed, it is plausible that certain banks will end up selecting ‘riskier’ portfolios than they would have chosen in the absence of the constraint. Accordingly, regulators such as the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision should be aware that allowing a bank to use VaR to determine its minimum regulatory capital may increase its fragility. Alternatives to VaR-based bank capital regulation that mitigate or even preclude its perverse implications are presented.     

Tax penalties on fluctuating incomes: estimates from longitudinal data

Progressive personal income taxes can cause individuals with fluctuating incomes to pay more taxes over time than individuals with constant incomes of the same average value. The implicit tax penalty violates principles of equity and may harm efficiency by discouraging risk-taking activities, such as entrepreneurship. This paper uses longitudinal data to estimate the tax penalties in six panels of Canadian data from 1993 to 2010. The effects of various income averaging policies for mitigating tax penalties are then examined.     

Federal capital expenditures and budget deficits: Gross national product and labor implications

The issue of separating capital from operating expenditures has been largely ignored in discussions of the U.S. Federal Government's deficit. This paper attempts to overcome this void by conducting a simulation experiment designed to assess the macroeconomic consequences of separating capital from current expenditures under several alternative balanced budget rules and financing arrangements. The alternatives considered are directly related to management accounting issues and thus the purpose of this paper can be seen as compatible with the literature on the relationship between accounting techniques and economic analyses. The results of the study reaffirm the need for federal capital investment planning.     

Correction to: Carry Trade Returns and Segmented Risk Pricing

Atlantic Economic Journal - A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-021-09708-3     

The Endogeneity Problem in Applied Fisheries Econometrics: A Critical Review

Environmental and Resource Economics - The purpose of this essay is to bring attention to some serious problems that exist in econometric application of fisheries economic models. These problems in...     

Innovation speed under uncertainty and competition

Innovation speed is widely considered to be a key factor for a firm's ability to maintain competitive advantage. Primarily, empirical evidence has found contradictory interdependencies regarding the role of innovation speed. The prevailing proposition of “the faster the better” has been challenged by results of empirical studies heavily depending on the methodological setup used. In contrast, we propose a model of the complete innovation process to study innovation speed under uncertainty and competition. We find that higher market uncertainty speeds up innovation and encourages firms to innovate incrementally. Strong competition tends to reduce innovation speed and encourages rather radical innovation.