A Simple Model of Insurance Market Dynamics

Abstract

This paper constructs and studies a simple but realistic model of an insurance market. The model has a minimalist construction in the sense that the number of parameters defining it is strictly limited and the elimination of any one of them would destroy its realism. There are 11 essential parameters. Each of the parameters has a physical interpretation. Some determine competitive effects within the market, some barriers to entry, and so on. The effect of each on various aspects of the market is examined in the presence of simulated loss experience. The aspects of the market considered include stability of premium rates, profitability, and market concentration. Some of the parameters are capable of use as regulatory controls. Two parameters, in addition to the original 11, are explicit price controls. Despite its simplicity, the model displays considerably complex behavior. Some results are intuitive, but some are not. For this reason, regulatory controls need to be applied with great caution lest they induce perverse effects, possibly even the reverse of those intended. The effect of the parameters on market behavior is first studied in the absence of catastrophic events from the loss experience. Subsequently, the effect of a single such event is studied.     

Firm Heterogeneity and Export Pricing in India

We examine export pricing by Indian manufacturing firms in the early 2000s using a unique data set that matches firm characteristics with product and destination‐level trade data. We find that, in contrast to China and other countries, firm productivity is negatively associated with export prices, and export prices are negatively associated with distance while positively associated with remoteness. Our conjecture is that Indian innovation costs, which are higher than China's, drive down the scope for quality differentiation causing a negative association between productivity and prices. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence consistent with heterogenous goods and short quality ladders, a theoretical possibility noted in the study by Antoniades (2012), an outcome that arises here because of domestic Indian economic and regulatory features.     

Effect of Diversity of Large Wildlife Species on Financial Benefits to Local Communities in Northwest Namibia

There exist few quantitative assessments of the relationship between biodiversity per se and economic benefits at scales that are relevant for conservation. Similarly, the merits of Community-Based Natural Resource Management programs for both wildlife and people are contested. Here, we harness two databases, on wildlife surveys and financial benefits, to address these issues for communal conservancies in northwest Namibia. We use ordination methods to characterize the diversity and stability of large wildlife assemblages on conservancies, and demonstrate that diversity (but not stability) is an important explanator of conservancy financial benefits. Our results indicate that for this area of Namibia, biodiversity, as represented by large wildlife assemblages, has an important, positive effect on the tangible financial benefits that people derive from conservation programs.     

Abatement and Allocation in the Pilot Phase of the EU ETS

We use historical industrial emissions data to assess the level of abatement and over-allocation that took place across European countries during the pilot phase (2005–2007) of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme. Using a dynamic panel data model, we estimate the counter factual (business-as-usual) emissions scenario for EU member states. Comparing this baseline to allocated and verified emissions, we find that both over-allocation and abatement occurred, along with under-allocation and emissions inflation. Over the three trading years of the pilot phase we find over-allocation of approximately 280 million EUAs and total abatement of 247 Mt CO₂. However, we calculate that emissions inflation of approximately 73 Mt CO₂ also occurred, possibly due to uncertainty about future policy design features.     

Value Congruence and Charismatic Leadership in CEO–Top Manager Relationships: An Empirical Investigation

Although charismatic leadership theorists have long argued that leader–follower value congruence plays a central role in the development of charismatic relationships, few studies have tested this proposition. Using data from two studies involving a total of 329 CEOs and 1807 members of their top management teams, we tested the hypothesis that value congruence between leaders and their followers is empirically linked to follower perceptions of the charisma of their leader. Consistent with a relational perspective on charismatic leadership, strong support was found for the hypothesis that perceived value congruence between leaders (CEOs) and their followers (members of their top management teams) is positively related to follower perceptions of the degree of charisma possessed by the leader. Conversely, only limited support was found for the hypothesis that actual value congruence is linked to perceptions of charismatic leadership. Implications of these findings for research and practice are discussed.     

More bang for the buck: Getting the most from accident investigations

An Incident Investigation system based on a combination of Fault Tree Analysis logic and the Deming Principles of Systems and Quality was developed during a three-year period. The system was given an excellent test in the investigation of the explosion of a tank car filled with methacrylic acid. In this case, the Event Tree constructed during the investigation was easily converted into a Fault Tree. The Fault Tree so constructed was then used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed corrective changes to the production, loading, and analytical systems before the changes were actually implemented. By making use of these tools to guide the addition of feedback loops (“And” Gates in fault Tree terminology), the intrinsic safety of the methacrylic acid production and shipping system was greatly enhanced at a relatively low cost.