中国农村经济发展积累过程形态分析

了解中国农村经济发展的经济结构对认识中国农村经济有着特殊的意义。本文旨在通过全国30个省、自治区和直辖市经济发展的比较研究,运用值域分析、方差分析和回归分析方法、探索出全国经济积累过程的发展形态,总结出地区伴随着经济发展过程而出现的特有经济结构现象,寻找问题症结的所在和解决问题的突破点,为国家经济提供建设性参考建议。     

Detecting hot and cold cycles using a Markov regime switching model—Evidence from the Chinese A-share IPO market

This paper focuses on detecting hot and cold IPO cycles in the Chinese A-share market using a Markov regime switching model. We introduce a set of observations to measure IPO activities, which include numbers of IPOs issued, levels of underpricing, market conditions and duration time from prospectus and listing, and thus establish a model to estimate these activities' average performance in hot and cold periods respectively. It is found that a hot period is related with an abundant supply of IPOs, high levels of underpricing, positive market conditions and short waiting time to listing after prospectus issue. Further, this paper depicts the turning points of hot and cold periods across the period from 1994 to 2005 for each observation. The cycles detected by the number of IPOs per month are the benchmark and then these cycles' robustness is tested by the other observations.     

国家科技重大专项对我国国家科技创新竞争力的提升作用研究

探究国家科技重大专项如何发挥其对我国国家科技创新竞争力的提升作用,是保障重大专项有效实施的根本问题,具有重要的理论与现实意义。在区分国家创新能力和国家创新竞争力不同的基础上,界定了国家科技创新竞争力的内涵,并根据已有研究文献构建了分析国家科技创新竞争力的概念框架。应用这一框架探析了我国国家科技重大专项的组织实施对于国家科技创新竞争力的提升作用,进而得出未来实施重大专项的一些结论和启示。     

Dynamic Moral Hazard and Executive Stock Options

This paper shows that the optimal executive compensation scheme in a dynamic moral hazard environment is convex in the firm value. This implies that the optimal contract should include stock options. This is because the private benefit of shirking is increasing in firm value and the manager's utility is concave. Therefore, in contrast to the previous literature that takes stock options in the incentive contract exogenously, we rationalize the optimality of their use endogenously. Moreover, we show that the optimal amount of stock options (restricted stocks) increases with agency cost and the executive's reservation utility, decreases with the degree of risk aversion of the manager, and increases (decreases) with the firm size.     

On indeterminacy and growth under progressive taxation and productive government spending

We examine the theoretical interrelations between equilibrium (in)determinacy and economic growth in a one‐sector representative‐agent model of endogenous growth with progressive taxation of income and productive flow of public spending. We analytically show that, if the demand‐side effect of government purchases is weaker, the economy exhibits an indeterminate balanced‐growth equilibrium and belief‐driven growth fluctuations when the tax schedule is sufficiently progressive or regressive. If the supply‐side effect of public expenditures is weaker, indeterminacy and sunspots arise under progressive income taxation. In sharp contrast to traditional Keynesian‐type stabilization policies, our analysis finds that raising the tax progressivity may destabilize an endogenously growing economy with fluctuations driven by agents’ self‐fulfilling expectations.     

论英语俚语翻译策略

据统计,英语常用语中20%为俚语,如何准确实现英语俚语与汉语之间的转换成为目前翻译工作者越来越关注的问题。掌握科学的英语俚语翻译策略,必须全面了解英语俚语,包括俚语的由来、文化内涵以及俚语特征,并从直译、意译、阐释翻译、引申、还原和同步六种翻译方法入手,研究俚语翻译策略。     

基于债权治理视角的利益侵占约束博弈分析

运用代理成本理论和契约理论,阐述了控股股东与银行债权人之间利益博弈的机理。针对我国转轨经济时期特殊的经济和社会背景———独特的股权结构、过度的政府干预、较低的社会信任程度等,构建了控股股东与银行债权人之间的利益博弈模型,证明了均衡状态的存在,并通过进一步分析各参数变量的政策含义,搭建了控股股东与银行债权人之间利益博弈的理论分析框架,为研究我国上市公司的银行债权治理提供了新的分析思路。     

股票财富、信号传递与中国城镇居民消费

本文尝试在消费者最优选择模型基础上,通过引入居民的借贷约束和预防性储蓄,推导出能够检验股市的财富效应、信号传递效应和不对称效应的实证分析框架,并利用中国的季度数据考察中国股市变动对居民消费的影响。与国内相关文献所得结论不同,本文的研究表明:如果不仅考虑股票价格变动的财富效应,而且考虑其信号传递效应,那么中国股票市场对城镇居民消费存在着较为明显的影响。分析也表明,如果用工资而不是人均可支配收入度量人力资本回报,中国股票市场同样存在正的财富效应,且这种财富效应具有明显的不对称性,反映经济基本面变化的股价变动对中国居民消费具有长期影响,投机因素引起的股价变动对中国居民消费的影响甚微。     

财政政策:遵守规则还是相机抉择

2004年10月,诺贝尔经济学奖的颁发,又一次引发了人们对财政政策时间一致性的关注,遵守规则的政策主张似乎又一次回归主流。通过比较英、美等发达市场经济国家财政政策的变迁以及通过分析政策规则与相机抉择不同的理论假设,我认为在制定财政政策时必须两者兼顾。我国现行的稳健(中性)财政政策恰恰体现了这种思想的内涵与本质。     

契约“诚信”问题与解“困”——法和经济学的视角

目前我国存在普遍的诚信危机,契约方面是一重灾区,究其原因,在于“失信”机会主义行为的效益性,及“失信”违法行为成本的低廉性。本文试图从经济学和法学相结合和学科角度,以契约方面的“诚信危机”为例,从经济学和法学的角度探讨一种“去效益”和“失信”违法成本加大,并倡导法律建立“信用权”等综合性的策略。从而克服由诚信危机带来的契约主体和“囚徒困境”和社会经济秩序的混乱和低效率运作。