Testing unstable econometric models for stability: An empirical study

Econometric models may be tested for stability using the asymptotic distribution of the dominant characteristic root of the system as derived by Theil and Boot (1962) or by Oberhofer and Kmenta (1973). This paper points out that this distribution is known for stable models only which implies that the null hypothesis must always be stability and the power of the test is in question. A Monte Carlo study is performed to investigate the power of the test and the distribution of the test statistic for unstable and stable models in the small sample case.     

Climate adaptation imperatives: global sustainability trends and eco-efficiency metrics in four major crops – canola,cotton, maize,and soybeans

Supplying our world's growing nutrition needs in more sustainable ways has become an urgent global imperative, given the constraints of finite resources and the challenges of accelerating climate change. We present national-level eco-efficiency metrics in several representative production countries during the most recent decade (2000–2010) for four important crops: canola, cotton, maize, and soybeans. The metrics address greenhouse gas emissions and the utilization of land, water, and energy – all calculated per unit of production. We group countries based on their level of agricultural intensification and find that high-intensification countries are achieving the highest and yet still increasing levels of eco-efficiency, with these decadal gains: canola (26%), cotton (23%), maize (17%), and soybeans (18%). By stark contrast, low-intensification countries had no change in eco-efficiency during this same decade. Overall, our results suggest large opportunities for additional improvements in the developing world, and that cumulative resource savings through intensification have been significant. For instance, in the case of irrigated maize, if the high- and medium-intensification production countries had only achieved the same irrigation water-use efficiency as in the low-intensification countries, approximately 4 quadrillion (4×10¹⁵) more litres of irrigation water would have been consumed during the period 2000–2010.     

Ooh,that's sour: An investigation of the role of sour taste and color saturation in consumer temptation avoidance

This paper draws on the theory of embodied cognition to argue that sensory imagery and consumer recall of past experiences of sour tastes inspire sour taste perceptions that trigger facial muscle activation, which in turn leads to temptation avoidance. Across four experiments, we show that physical action need not be performed to elicit temptation avoidance. Moreover, our findings show that the effects of visual gustatory imagery are more pronounced when presented against a visual red background low on color saturation. Interestingly, they are not significant in the presence of a high color saturation background. We also discuss the implications of these findings for sensory marketing, alternative consumer strategies to avoid temptation, and visual brand management in the consumer experience economy.     

Climate adaptation imperatives: untapped global maize yield opportunities

Climate change represents an unavoidable and growing challenge to food security, imposing new adaptation imperatives on all farmers. Maize is arguably the world's most productive grain crop, as measured by grain yield. However, maize yields vary dramatically due to many factors, including soils, climate, pests, disease, agronomic practices, and seed quality. The difference between observed yields and those achievable by optimized crop production methods is called the yield gap. In this work we quantified the current yield gap for 44 countries through the use of a large private-sector data set recently made available to the crop modelling community. The yield gap was quantified for three groups of countries, categorized by level of intensification. Observed yield gaps for high, medium, and low levels of intensification are 23%, 46%, and 68%, respectively. If all maize production countries were able to shrink their yield gap to 16.5% (as in the USA) an additional 335?million metric tons (MMT) of maize grain would be produced. This represents a 45% increase over the 741?MMT produced by these countries in 2010. These data demonstrate that a major untapped maize yield opportunity exists, especially in those countries where intensification has not kept pace with the rest of the world.     

On the detectability of different forms of interaction in regression models

We consider the ability to detect interaction structure from data in a regression context. We derive an asymptotic power function for a likelihood-based test for interaction in a regression model, with possibly misspecified alternative distribution. This allows a general investigation of different types of interactions which are poorly or well detected via data. Principally we contrast pairwise-interaction models with ‘diffuse interaction models’ as introduced in Gustafson et al. (Stat Med 24:2089–2104, 2005).     

Strategies of upward influence: A cross-national comparison of Hong Kong and American managers

This study compares American and Hong Kong Chinese strategies for advancing in organisations. Evaluated are the likelihood of using a particular strategy, the perceived risk associated with each strategy, and the ethical appropriateness of the strategy. Multivariate analysis of variance was used to determine overall differences. Univariate analysis of variance identified the particular strategies that differentiated the American and Hong Kong respondents. For example, the Hong Kong Chinese were more likely to use informal information networks. The Americans were more likely to employ more individual strategies, such as image management, in order to differentiate themselves from the competition in their organisation.     

The Multifaceted Impact of Corruption on International Trade

The purpose of this paper is to perform a detailed examination of corruption effects on trade based on corruption characteristics known to affect economic exchange within the corruption research field. These characteristics are the level, prevalence, customs location, function and predictability of corruption. The multifaceted corruption impact on trade is empirically examined using a corruption‐augmented gravity equation. The equation is estimated using a Heckman version of a GMM instrumental variable method. Our results provide strong evidence of that import flows vary systematically with the investigated corruption characteristics and enable the identification of channels through which corruption affects international trade. The empirical investigation clearly indicates the need to examine the multifaceted role of corruption to properly assess the trade effects of corruption.     

Dow Chemical Western Division Research pre-operational review for new projects

Previous authors have documented reviews for design projects prior to construction [1,2]. Very little has been written about research reviews and systems to adequately review new projects. Within the Dow Chemical U.S.A. Research community, a different set of procedures have been developed at each site. The process discussed in this report is the most documented review system of any site within Dow Chemcial U.S.A. Research.     

On Average Predictive Comparisons and Interactions

In a regression context, consider the difference in expected outcome associated with a particular difference in one of the input variables. If the true regression relationship involves interactions, then this predictive comparison can depend on the values of the other input variables. Therefore, one may wish to consider an average predictive comparison as a target of inference, where the averaging is with respect to the population distribution of the input variables. We consider inferences about such targets, with emphasis on inferential performance when the regression model is misspecified. Particularly, in light of the difficulties in dealing with interaction terms in regression models, we examine inferences about average predictive comparisons when additive models are fitted to relationships truly involving pairwise interaction terms. We identify some circumstances where such inferences are consistent despite the model misspecification, notably when the input variables are independent, or have a multivariate normal distribution.