Do central bank foreign exchange interventions affect market expectations?

The aim of this article is to study the impact of the Brazilian central bank swap interventions on the FX market from 2006 to 2013. In this period, these nontraditional interventions were the main FX instrument of the Brazilian Government. Since the central bank operates through a sequence of daily interventions in most of the period, we employ the event study method, which is appropriate to investigate cumulative impact of intervention episodes. We analyse the effects on the risk neutral distribution of BRL-USD exchange rate, which incorporates economic valuation besides the likelihoods. We investigate both changes in level and in the dynamics of the moments. Our tests indicate that interventions have little effects on the exchange rate distribution. We only find evidences of some impact on the dynamics of the mean, volatility and skewness over long horizons when the central bank takes short positions on the exchange rate.     

On the Irrelevance of Mercosur: Evidence From Foreign Direct Investment

ABSTRACT

This article utilizes data from more than 100 countries over 30 years to identify the key factors that make a country more attractive to foreign direct investment (FDI). We find evidence that a country's potential marginal returns to capital, available infrastructure, degree of trade openness, labor force qualification, and macroeconomic stability have a positive impact on FDI inflows. Our estimates capture a change in the role played by trade protection and an increase in the importance of human capital as globalization progressed. An application of our models illustrates why Mercosur countries have underperformed their peers in attracting FDI.     

Securitization without risk transfer

We analyze asset-backed commercial paper conduits, which experienced a shadow-banking run and played a central role in the early phase of the financial crisis of 2007–2009. We document that commercial banks set up conduits to securitize assets worth $1.3 trillion while insuring the newly securitized assets using explicit guarantees. We show that regulatory arbitrage was an important motive behind setting up conduits. In particular, the guarantees were structured so as to reduce regulatory capital requirements, more so by banks with less capital, and while still providing recourse to bank balance sheets for outside investors. Consistent with such recourse, we find that conduits provided little risk transfer during the run, as losses from conduits remained with banks instead of outside investors and banks with more exposure to conduits had lower stock returns.     

Committee Decision Making: The Multicategory Case

If a committee of n members is asked to make a decision to accept or reject a proposal and each committee member summarizes his/her assessment of the proposal by selecting one of several options (like “highly recommend,” “recommend,” etc.), how are these to be aggregated so as to come up with an overall recommendation? I show, on the assumption that the judgements of the individual committee members are statistically independent, that this is to be done by weighting the numbers of members selecting each option by some suitable weights; if the resulting number is larger than some benchmark number, the proposal is accepted, and otherwise rejected.     

Auctions of licences and market structure

Summary. This paper studies sequential auctions of licences to participate in a symmetric market game. Assuming that the rate at which industry profits decrease with repeated entry is not too large, at the unique solution either a single firm preempts entry altogether or entry occurs in every stage, depending on the net benefit of complete preemption to an incumbent. If we relax the assumption, a third outcome can occur: two firms may coordinate their choices to avoid further entry. The analysis employs a new refinement of Nash equilibrium, the concept of recursively undominated equilibrium. Received: February 25, 2000; revised version: September 12, 2000     

Bootstrap validity for the score test when instruments may be weak

It is well-known that size adjustments based on bootstrapping the t$t$-statistic perform poorly when instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous explanatory variable. In this paper, we provide a theoretical proof that guarantees the validity of the bootstrap for the score statistic. This theory does not follow from standard results, since the score statistic is not a smooth function of sample means and some parameters are not consistently estimable when the instruments are uncorrelated with the explanatory variable.     

Labor Informality: Choice or Sign of Segmentation? A Quantile Regression Approach at the Regional Level for Colombia

The labor market in developing countries is remarkably heterogeneous, with a small productive formal sector characterized by high wages and attractive employment conditions, and a large informal sector characterized by low productivity and volatile wages. The informal sector is particularly diverse. In this paper, we examine the heterogeneity of the informal sector at the regional level in Colombia. In general, our findings suggest that both voluntary and involuntary informal employment co‐exist by choice and as a consequence of labor market segmentation. We also find that there are striking differences in labor market characteristics across cities, particularly with respect to informal employment.     

Advertising, Breadth of Ownership, and Liquidity

We provide empirical evidence that a firm's overall visibilitywith investors, as measured by its product market advertising,has important consequences for the stock market. Specificallywe show that firms with greater advertising expenditures, ceterisparibus, have a larger number of both individual and institutionalinvestors, and better liquidity of their common stock. Our findingsare robust to a variety of methodological approaches and tovarious measures of liquidity. These results suggest that theinvestors' degree of familiarity with a firm may affect itscost of capital and consequently its value.     

Capital Adequacy, Bank Mergers, and the Medium of Payment

We examine how banks' capital requirements affect the way bank mergers are financed, as well as the stock-market reaction to the merger announcement. We find that the capital position of the acquirer is one of the two factors most strongly influencing the choice of financing method; the other is the relative size of the merging banks. The smaller the acquirer in relation to the target bank and the higher the acquirer's capital adequacy ratio, the more likely it is that the acquisition will be financed by a stock swap. The capital requirements also affect the market reaction, through their effect on the financing method choice. The value of the acquirer's equity decreases more at the time of the merger announcement if the method of payment is stock. Like prior studies, we find that the abnormal return on the target banks' stock is positive.     

Economic impact of expanded use of biologic therapy for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn’s disease in Argentina,Brazil, Colombia,and Mexico

Objectives: To estimate economic impact resulting from increased biologics use for treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and Crohn’s disease (CD) in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico.

Methods: The influence of increasing biologics use for treatment of RA during 2012–2022 and for treatment of CD during 2013–2023 was modeled from a societal perspective. The economic model incorporated current and projected medical, indirect, and drug costs and epidemiologic and economic factors. Costs associated with expanded biologics use for RA were compared with non-expanded use in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. A similar analysis was conducted for CD in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico.

Results: Accounting for additional costs of biologics and medical and indirect cost offsets, the model predicts that expanded use of biologics for patients with RA from 2012 to 2022 will result in cumulative net cost savings of ARS$2.351 billion in Argentina, R$9.004 billion in Brazil, COP$728.577 billion in Colombia, and MXN$18.02 billion in Mexico; expanded use of biologics for patients with CD from 2013 to 2023 will result in cumulative net cost savings for patients with CD of R$0.082 billion in Brazil, COP$502.74 billion in Colombia, and MXN$1.80 billion in Mexico. Indirect cost offsets associated with expanded biologics use were a key driver in reducing annual per-patient net costs for RA and CD.

Limitations: Future economic projections are limited by the potential variance between projected and actual future values of biologic prices, wages, medical costs, and gross national product for each country.

Conclusions: Increasing biologics use to treat RA and CD may limit cost growth over time by reducing medical and indirect costs. These findings may inform policy decisions regarding biologics use in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico.