Budget deficits and real interest rates: Updated empirical evidence on causality

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, the paper empirically examines the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield on high grade long term tax free municipal bonds in the U.S. To clarify this deficit or interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primary budget deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. In a model that includes federal personal income tax rates and net international capital flows, as well as money supply growth, the ECM estimates strongly suggest a bi-directional relationship between the primary budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield. Budget deficits apparently do matter! William Simon's concerns were justified.The author is indebted to P. A. V. B. Swamy for ideas and helpful suggestions and Will Perry for data assembly and processing.     

一个培育我国外贸新增长点的设想--发展环渤海区域外贸城市群

对外贸易的拉动作用是实现我国十六大经济增长目标的重要保证。但是，反观当前的国内外环境，我国进出口贸易的发展遇到了诸多困难。欲解决这些问题，必须进行制度创新，其中培育城市群是一种可行的办法。而环渤海区域以其特有优势，成为培育对外贸易城市群的首选。为此，我国需要在环渤海区域大力发展高新技术产业，培育产业集群，引导民营企业发展，以及发挥政府的政策作用。     

进出口商品检验史上的一个新的里程碑－－浅议修改的《商检法》

２００２年１０月１日起，新修改的《中华人民共和国进出口商品检验法》（以下简称《商检法》）正式施行了。新修改的《商检法》对于加强进出口商品检验工作，推动我国对外经贸事业的发展，对维护国家经济安全必将起到一个更加积极的促进作用。它是完善中国商检法律制度的重要举措，是我国进出口商品检验史上一个新的里程碑，是我国加入世界贸易组织后修改的第一部法律。修改后的《商检法》更规范，更清楚，更明确，重点更突出，条文的表述更准确，更统一了。一、修改后的《商检法》充分体现了依法治国和依法行政的方针“依法治国”，“建设…