The Southeast Asian Economies in the Age of Discontent

This paper investigates the effects on and responses of five middle‐income Southeast Asian economies to the current global environment of authoritarian populism, the retreat from economic liberalism, and the appeal of anti‐globalization movements. While the political histories and institutional capabilities of the five – Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam – vary greatly, these economies have a history of at least moderately fast economic growth for extended periods, and of increasing regional and global economic integration. We argue that most of the factors behind the discontent with globalization in the rich economies are not present to the same degree in these countries, and that there has therefore been no major retreat from the economic policy settings that have underpinned their past economic success. However, there are no grounds for complacency. Economic growth is slowing in some of the countries, economic insecurity remains widespread, and the development of durable independent institutions has lagged economic growth.     

Cambodia: Rapid Growth with Weak Institutions

This paper examines Cambodia's socioeconomic development since the early 1990s peace settlement. The country's economic growth has arguably been the fastest among post‐conflict societies, driven by the credible restoration of peace and security, large public and private capital inflows, economic openness, reasonably prudent macroeconomic management, and a dynamic, integrating neighborhood. A legacy of history and small size is that the government has limited policy space, although this has not necessarily retarded economic development. We also highlight some key challenges, including rising inequality, uneven spatial development, weak institutions, and high levels of corruption. Looking forward, we highlight the importance of strengthening supply side capabilities, broadening the benefits of growth, and developing stronger institutions and property rights.     

Indonesia After the Asian Crisis*

Indonesia was deeply affected by the 1997–1998 crisis, more so than its East Asian neighbors. Its economic contraction was deeper and more prolonged. It was the only one to experience a (temporary) loss of macroeconomic control. It also suffered “twin crises,” in the sense that its serious economic and financial problems were accompanied by regime collapse. Consequently, recovery was a slow and complex process, as new institutions had to be created, and old ones reformed under successive short‐lived administrations. But this process is largely over. The directly elected president with a strong popular mandate is in power. The new institutional framework for economic policy‐making is in place. Macroeconomic stability has been restored. Although growth has yet to return to pre‐crisis levels, by 2004 per capita income and poverty incidence had recovered to levels prevailing in the mid‐1990s, and in the circumstances economic recovery has arguably proceeded about as quickly as could reasonably have been expected.     

When do market games have transferable utility?

A pure exchange economy generates a “market game” in which the allocations achievable by any coalition are determined by the initial endowments of its members. Subject to certain regularity conditions, it is shown that for a market game it is possible to find utility representations for each consumer so that the game can be treated as a game with transferable utility if and only if indirect utility of all consumers can be represented in the Gorman polar form. This is the class for which aggregate demand behaves as if it were the demand of a single consumer.     

Insider Trading after Repurchase Tender Offer Announcements: Timing versus Informed Trading

Abnormally high net insider selling is commonly observed after repurchase tender offer (RTO) announcements although, on average, firms experience positive abnormal returns in the years after the repurchases. We explore two potential explanations: liquidity trade timing and informed trading. Consistent with the notion that fixed price RTOs are more likely than Dutch-auction RTOs to signal undervaluation, the results suggest that insider selling after fixed price RTO announcements are driven largely by insiders who time their trades with the repurchase announcements. In contrast, selling after Dutch-auction RTOs seems to be driven primarily by informed traders who exploit mispricing associated with the repurchase announcements.     

Beyond Big Data

This talk describes the new directions in computers and communication and their implications for the analysis of massive amounts of data, development of customized marketing plans that go hand in glove with sophisticated digital assistants, continuous computerized experiments to distinguish causation from correlation, and the role of monitoring in market research and the conduct of efficient transactions. Taking full advantage of the potential of these new directions will require increasing sophistication in knowing what to do with the massive amounts of data that are now available.     

Vehicle-to-grid systems for sustainable development: An integrated energy analysis

Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems represent a means by which power capacity in parked vehicles can be used to generate electricity for the grid. This paper describes the first detailed and global analysis of the potential of V2G technologies over the long-term (to 2100) using a comprehensive energy-systems model. In this analysis we explore the potential for V2G systems to supply a number of electricity submarkets and concomitantly accelerate the diffusion of advanced vehicle technologies, including hybrid-electric and fuel cell drivetrains. We also examine the potential impact of V2G on the global energy system, particularly in terms of investment in conventional capacity, and the possible role of V2G-enabled vehicles in increasing the market penetration of renewable electricity generation technologies. Importantly, however, V2G technologies represent a paradigm shift in how the energy and mobility markets are related, and a number of possible barriers to the widespread adoption of this technology are also discussed.     

Triumphs and tragedies: expectations and commitments upon repatriation

Building on and extending the literature on organizational commitment, this study examines the relationship between repatriates' work and non-work-related expectations and their commitment to their parent companies and new local work units after completing international assignments. The results, based on a sample of 174 repatriates and 92 partners within five US multinationals, indicate that positive, linear relationships exist between certain work and non-work expectations and commitment to the parent company and local work unit, while significant, nonlinear relationships exist between other expectations and these commitments. These results have both theoretical and practical implications, which are discussed.     

Catastrophe Risk Bonds

Abstract

This article examines the pricing of catastrophe risk bonds. Catastrophe risk cannot be hedged by traditional securities. Therefore, the pricing of catastrophe risk bonds requires an incomplete markets setting, and this creates special difficulties in the pricing methodology. The authors briefly discuss the theory of equilibrium pricing and its relationship to the standard arbitrage-free valuation framework. Equilibrium pricing theory is used to develop a pricing method based on a model of the term structure of interest rates and a probability structure for the catastrophe risk. This pricing methodology can be used to assess the default spread on catastrophe risk bonds relative to traditional defaultable securities.