The dynamics of moonlighting in Russia1

This paper uses the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to analyse the dynamics of moonlighting by the working‐age population. We find that moonlighting is transitory and that a desire to switch jobs expressed in the past is positively related to moonlighting in the present and to actual job changes in the future. We also find that workers who moonlighted as self‐employed in the past represent 26.5 percent of the new self‐employed. These results suggest that moonlighting in Russia can be seen as an effective incubator for setting up new self‐employed businesses, thereby providing long‐term benefits for the economy.     

Improved estimation of portfolio value‐at‐risk under copula models with mixed marginals

Portfolio value‐at‐risk (PVAR) is widely used in practice, but recent criticisms have focused on risks arising from biased PVAR estimates due to model specification errors and other problems. The PVAR estimation method proposed in this article combines generalized Pareto distribution tails with the empirical density function to model the marginal distributions for each asset in the portfolio, and a copula model is used to form a joint distribution from the fitted marginals. The copula–mixed distribution (CMX) approach converges in probability to the true marginal return distribution but is based on weaker assumptions that may be appropriate for the returns data found in practice. CMX is used to estimate the joint distribution of log returns for the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE) index and the associated futures contracts on SGX and TAIFEX. The PVAR estimates for various hedge portfolios are computed from the fitted CMX model, and backtesting diagnostics indicate that CMX outperforms the alternative PVAR estimators. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:997–1018, 2006     

中国金融业分业经营与混业经营研究

实践表明，混业经营有助于增强金融机构的国际竞争力，促进一国经济的发展，目前已成为全球金融业发展的趋势。就我国而言，从长远的角度来看，混业经营是金融业的必然选择，但短期内尚不具备过渡的条件。由于我国已加入WTO，所以目前应抓住机遇，采取相应的对策，为将来混业经营作好准备。     

干预行为——经济法中的“法律行为”

在我国法学界,"法律行为"有两种不同含义,一是民法上的含义,意指意思效果行为。这也是法律行为的原初含义。另一是法理学上的含义,意指具有法律效果的行为。经济法的法律行为应采何意?从相关的论述看,多是在法理学意义上使用的。笔者之见,法律行为应回归其原初含义,而最能反映经济法特征的法律行为就是"干预行为",即公共经济组织的"公意"表示及执行行为,包括宏观调控和市场规制行为。     

简释可持续发展成本

可持续发展观要求我们对成本概念进行正确的理解，已经付出的资源代价是成本，应该付出但尚未付出、迟早要付出的资源代价也应该理解为成本，这是对可持续发展成本理解的基础。可持续发展成本主要是由自然生态成本和人文生态成本构成。重视可持续发展成本核算是优化资源环境的需要、完善国民经济核算体系的需要以及正确计算产品成本的要求。构建可持续发展成本核算体系应从自然生态成本核算体系和人文生态成本核算体系两个子系统进行构建。     

劳动合同法实施对民营企业劳动关系的影响

规范劳动合同,是合理配置劳动力资源,稳定劳动关系,促进社会生产力永续健康发展的重要手段。《劳动合同法》颁布前,由于劳动法及相关的法律规章规定得过于原则,劳动合同制度落实得并不理想,尤其是民营企业存在不少问题。即将生效实施的《劳动合同法》,强化了书面劳动合同形式,扩大了无固定期限劳动合同及经济补偿金的适用,增加了许多法律责任的规定,必将对民营企业劳动关系发挥重大影响,促进稳定规范和谐劳动关系的建立,有力推动和谐社会的建设。     

Financial Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Six MENA Countries

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth for six Middle Eastern and North African countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia), within a quadvariate vector autoregressive framework. We employ four different measures of financial development and apply the augmented vector autoregression vector (VAR) methodology of Toda and Yamamoto to test for Granger causality. Our empirical results strongly support the hypothesis that finance leads to growth in five out of the six countries. Only in Israel could weak support be found for causality running from economic growth to financial development but no causality in the other direction. These findings suggest the need to accelerate the financial reforms that have been launched since the mid 1980s and to improve the efficiency of these countries’ financial systems to stimulate saving/investment and, consequently, long‐term economic growth.     

Looking for contagion in currency futures markets

This article tests whether there are pure contagion effects in both conditional means and volatilities among British pound, Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc futures markets during the 1992 ERM crisis. A conditional version of international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to control for economic fundamentals. The empirical results indicate that overall there are no mean spillovers among those futures markets, but they are detected during the crisis period. That is, past return shocks originating in any one of the four markets have no impact on the other three markets during the entire sample period, suggesting that these markets are weak‐form efficient. However, this weak‐form market efficiency fails to hold during the market turmoil, especially for British pound and Swiss franc, and the sources of contagion‐in‐mean effects are mainly due to the return shocks originating in three European currency futures markets. As for the contagion‐in‐volatility, it is detected for British pound only because its conditional volatility is influenced by the negative volatility shocks from Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc, with Deutsche mark playing the dominant role in generating these shocks. JEL Classifications: C32; F31; G12. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:957–988, 2003     

MANAGING VENDOR INVENTORY IN A DUAL LEVEL DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

Collaborative arrangements among members of the supply chain have received a great deal of interest in recent years as a means of reducing costs. One such arrangement is vendor managed inventory (VMI). VMI allows the vendor to make decisions concerning the quantity and timing of deliveries to the retailer. Such an arrangement offers the potential of a more efficient supply chain by removing the negative effects of retail ordering policies. A thorough review of the literature was conducted to identify factors likely to impact the performance of a VMI partnership. Computer simulation was used to study the effects of these factors from both the vendor's and retailer's perspectives. The results lend insight into the performance of VMI and guidance for managers as to the environments in which VMI is most effective.     

我国A股、B股市场并轨的前景探析

B股市场的前途问题是一个困扰市场参与者的主要问题,而前途的不明朗源于B股市场定位的困惑和功能失调。筹资功能方面,1991～2004年12月B股市场通过股票发行总计筹资50.03亿美元,通过配股筹资3.27亿美元,而同期A股市场对应的数据是5695.7亿元和2276.74亿元,而且最近3年B股市场的