黑龙江旅游网络关注度时空演变特征研究

探究黑龙江旅游网络关注度时空演变特征对黑龙江旅游业良性发展具有重要意义.利用百度指数获取2011—2018年全国和分地区黑龙江旅游网络关注度逐日搜索指数数据.从时间分布、空间分布、时空集聚3个方面研究其演变特征.研究表明:2011—2018年全国黑龙江旅游网络关注度年际变化总体呈现上升趋势,月际变化呈"W"形;2011—2018年31个省区市黑龙江旅游网络关注度空间差异较大、季节性影响显著;东部地区黑龙江旅游网络关注度偏高,西部地区黑龙江旅游网络关注度的季节差异最明显;东部地区内的黑龙江旅游网络关注度差异性最小,西部地区内差异性最大;黑龙江旅游网络关注度具有正空间自相关,部分东部、中部地区表现为高高集聚,多数西部地区表现为低低集聚.     

Reconciling Alternative Theories for the Safety of Owner–Operators

Motor carrier safety is an important concern of shippers, carriers, policy makers, consignees, insurance providers, and the motoring public. One aspect of carrier safety that has garnered substantial attention is whether carriers making greater use of owner–operators are more or less safe vis‐à‐vis carriers making greater use of employee drivers. Currently, conflicting theoretical predictions exist regarding the direction of this relationship. In this article, we offer a reconciliation of the alternative theoretical predictions by developing a coherent theory that merges sociological rational choice theory and theory regarding motor carrier safety. We subject our theory to empirical testing by fitting a series of seemingly unrelated regression models to a vector of safety measures tracked as part of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration's Compliance, Safety, and Accountability program. Our results are consistent with our proposed theory of owner—operator safety and provide meaningful theoretical and managerial implications and directions for future research.     

Pricing Defaultable Bonds Using a Lévy Jump‐Diffusion Model

This paper uses a reduced‐form approach to derive a closed‐form pricing formula for defaultable bonds. The authors specify the default hazard rate as an affine function of multiple variables which follow the Lévy jump‐diffusion processes. Because such specification allows greater flexibility in the generation of a valid probability of default, their pricing model should be more accurate than the valuation models in traditional studies, which ignore the jump effects. This paper also proposes a new method for estimating the parameters in a Lévy Jump‐diffusion process. The real data from the Taiwanese bond market are used to illustrate how their model can be applied in practical situations. The authors compare the pricing results for the influential variables with no jump effects, with jump magnitudes following the normal distribution, and with jump magnitudes following the gamma distribution. The results reveal that the predictive ability is the best for the model with the jump components. The valuation model shown in this paper should help portfolio managers more accurately price defaultable bonds and more effectively hedge their portfolio holdings.     

Towards an operations strategy model of servitization: the role of sustainability pressure

Servitization requires an important strategic shift to drive changes in the operations of manufacturing firms. Using a large-scale survey, the purpose of this paper is (1) to build and validate an operations strategy model of servitization confirming previous case study findings on servitization as a strategic action and (2) to explore the role of sustainability pressures in, and the sustainability performance effects of, pursuing service-based operations strategies. To reach these objectives, a dataset including the responses of 735 manufacturing plants from 21 different countries is analyzed using the PLS-SEM method. The results indicate that the sustainability pressures of stakeholders can push manufacturers to adopt a service-based operations strategy, materializing in the provision of both basic (product-oriented) and advanced (customer-oriented) services (BAS and ADS). Our analysis further indicates that while offering BAS is a precondition for ADS provision, only ADS can offer a competitive edge for manufacturers, both in terms of service and sustainability-related operational performance.     

Demographics,personality, contact,and universal‐diverse orientation: An exploratory examination

This study explores relationships between race, gender, agreeableness, openness to experience, contact, and a measure of attitudes toward diversity—universal‐diverse orientation (UDO). UDO consists of three attitudinal components: realistic appreciation (a cognition), comfort with difference (a feeling), and diversity of contact (a behavior). Results suggest that race, agreeableness, and openness relate to UDO attitudes, primarily due to the relationships of these variables with the behavioral component—diversity of contact. Identifying characteristics of tolerant people (e.g., agreeableness) and training managers in skills related to those characteristics may improve contextual performance and make managers better role models within the organizational context. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Estimation of sons' intergenerational earnings mobility in the presence of censoring

Based on intergenerational data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I provide estimates of income mobility across generations for men. Special attention is paid to issues of censoring caused by a son's unemployment. Employing non‐parametric bounds estimates, I illustrate that previous income mobility estimates rely heavily on (unjustified) assumptions of exogenous selection. Assuming a son's potential income is instead a function of his reason for unemployment and work history, I re‐estimate mobility. Allowing for sampling variability, the range of feasible slopes consistent with these modified bounds restrictions is 0.27 to 0.55. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using Industry-Sponsored Game Nights to Educate About Risk and Insurance

As educators in the field of risk management and insurance, we see know- ledge of risk management and insurance as a core business function. However, some colleagues and students see insurance as cold-call sales or companies with a lot of money that continue to raise their prices. So we have to find ways to make our public aware of the usefulness of risk management and insurance in the business world and in private life and of the opportunities that having such knowledge presents to all business majors and business people. One method that is beginning to show dramatic improvements in at least our students' perceptions of the field and the major involves industry-sponsored game nights. While not an academic endeavor nor strictly risk management education, we believe the idea provides a useful tool for opening students' eyes to the need for knowledge of risk management and insurance and of the opportunities that are available in the insurance industry and its related fields. This article discusses the history of such an event at Appalachian State Univer- sity, the current status of the North Carolina Surplus Lines Association (NCSLA) event, and the benefits of the event.     

Self‐help in housing and chengzhongcun in China's urbanization

This article focuses on the housing issues of rural migrants arising from urbanization, with particular reference to chengzhongcun, a topic with considerable impact on policymaking. An attempt is made to understand the underlying rationale of self‐help in housing and the important role of chengzhongcun in sheltering rural migrants in the context of China's rural‐urban dichotomy. As demonstrated in this study, chengzhongcun accommodate, with little in the way of government resources and assistance, millions of rural migrants because of their social accessibility and affordability. While not denying their social problems, we argue that chengzhongcun in fact act as an innovative and positive agent to promote urbanization in present day China by housing massive numbers of rural migrants and assimilating them into cities. Current government policies towards chengzhongcun have generated a wide range of interest conflicts and confrontations. The consequences of such conflicts show that the government policies were problematic and unworkable, as they violated basic market principles as well as citizen rights. Policy strategy towards the redevelopment of chengzhongcun must acknowledge their credibility in the Chinese road to urbanization and requires more thoughtful and prudent consideration of migrants' demands for affordable housing.     

Is the institutionalization of urban movements inevitable? A comparison of the opportunities for sustained squatting in New York City and Amsterdam

In this article the opportunity structures of New York City and Amsterdam for organized squatting are compared. New York City knew two distinct squatting waves, with an intermission of several years. The literature on US urban movements predicts transformation through cooptation and repression. Only the first wave, in which housing activists used squatting as a tactic, fits this prediction. The second wave of squatting in New York City, and squatting in Amsterdam in general, escaped cooptation because they involved a squatters' movement proper, in which squatting was not only a tactic but also central to its existence. Compared to Amsterdam, squatting in New York was hampered by technical difficulties and political isolation. Stricter protection of private property made New York squatters restrict themselves to publicly‐owned abandoned buildings. Turf conflicts tended to develop on the neighbourhood level when these buildings were later claimed for the development of low‐income housing. In Amsterdam this type of conflict was rare because of the broad support for low‐income (re)development. Instead, Amsterdam saw citywide protest directed at the real estate sector and municipal authorities. Cet article compare la structure des opportunités des villes de New York et Amsterdam concernant les squats organisés. New York a connu deux vagues de squattage séparées de plusieurs années. Les textes sur les mouvements urbains aux Etats‐Unis prévoient une mutation par cooptation et répression. Seule la première vague, pour laquelle les militants en faveur du logement ont utilisé le squattage comme tactique, répond à cette prédiction. La seconde vague d'opérations à New York, et celles d'Amsterdam en général, ont échappéà la cooptation, car il s'agissait de mouvements de squatters à proprement parler, où le squat n'était pas seulement une tactique mais surtout un fondement de leur existence. Comparéà Amsterdam, le squattage à New York s'est heurtéà des problèmes techniques et à un isolement politique. La protection plus stricte de la propriété privée a forcé les squatters new‐yorkais à se limiter aux bâtiments publics abandonnés. Des luttes de territoires ont eu tendance à se développer entre voisins lorsque ces bâtiments ont ensuite été réclamés pour aménager des logements à faible loyer. A Amsterdam, rare fut ce genre de conflit grâce au vaste soutien favorable au (ré)aménagement social; au contraire, une protestation générale s'est élevée à l'encontre du secteur immobilier et des autorités municipales.     

Equilibrium Investment Strategies and Output Price Behavior: A Real-Options Approach

The effects of competitive interactions on investment decisionsand on the dynamics of the price of a nonstorable commodityare studied in a model of incremental investment with time tobuild and operating flexibility. I find that an increase inuncertainty may encourage firms to increase their capacity.Furthermore, I show that it may be optimal to invest in additionalcapacity during periods in which part of the operational capacityis not being utilized. The impact of competition on the propertiesof the endogenous output price is dramatic. For example, I findthat price volatility may be increasing in the number of competitorsin the industry.