Do Vietnamese upland farmers benefit from high world market prices for maize?

For rural households in the north of Vietnam, maize cropping is the main source of income. In the face of the world market price increases of the recent past, we analyze the regional marketing chain of this commodity qualitatively and econometrically investigating to what extent smallholder farmers in developing countries are affected by international price movements. Vietnamese maize markets are found to be well integrated. Recent price hikes have fully transmitted along the regional supply chain so that farmers profited. Nevertheless, adverse factors such as increasing input prices have neutralized these benefits resulting in a decline in real income of smallholders.     

The North American trade region

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that is to take effect at the beginning of 1994 will create a free trade area between three economies which differ substantially in terms of size and stage of development. What were the reasons that led the unequal partners, the USA, Canada and Mexico, to enter into closer trade integration? What will be the economic consequences for the countries involved and for world trade?     

Democratization and Real Exchange Rates,

In this article, we combine two so far separate strands of the economic literature and argue that democratization leads to a real exchange rate appreciation. We test this hypothesis empirically for a sample of countries observed from 1980 to 2007 by combining a difference‐in‐difference approach with propensity score matching estimators. Our empirical results reveal a strong and significant finding: democratization causes real exchange rates to appreciate. Consequently, the ongoing process of democratization observed in many parts of the world is likely to reduce exchange rate distortions.     

Consistency of Heckman-type two-step estimators for the multivariate sample-selection model

This analysis shows that multivariate generalizations to the classical Heckman (1976 Heckman, JJ. 1976. The common structure of statistical models of truncation, sample selection and limited dependent variables and a simple estimator for such models. Annals of Economics and Social Measurement, 5: 475–92.  [Google Scholar], 1979) two-step estimator that account for cross-equation correlation and use the inverse Mills ratio as correction term are consistent only if certain restrictions apply to the true error-covariance structure. An alternative class of generalizations to the classical Heckman two-step approach is derived that condition on the entire selection pattern rather than selection in particular equations and, therefore, use modified correction terms. It is shown that this class of estimators is consistent. In addition, Monte-Carlo results illustrate that these estimators display a smaller mean square prediction error.     

Competitive risk sharing contracts with one-sided commitment

This paper analyzes dynamic equilibrium risk sharing contracts between profit-maximizing intermediaries and a large pool of ex ante identical agents that face idiosyncratic income uncertainty that makes them heterogeneous ex post. In any given period, after having observed her income, the agent can walk away from the contract, while the intermediary cannot, i.e. there is one-sided commitment. We consider the extreme scenario that the agents face no costs to walking away, and can sign up with any competing intermediary without any reputational losses. We demonstrate that not only autarky, but also partial and full insurance can obtain, depending on the relative patience of agents and financial intermediaries. Insurance can be provided because in an equilibrium contract an up-front payment effectively locks in the agent with an intermediary. We then show that our contract economy is equivalent to a consumption-savings economy with one-period Arrow securities and a short-sale constraint, similar to Bulow and Rogoff [1989. Sovereign debt: is to forgive to forget? American Economic Review 79, 43-50]. From this equivalence and our characterization of dynamic contracts it immediately follows that without cost of switching financial intermediaries debt contracts are not sustainable, even though a risk allocation superior to autarky can be achieved.