The CAP for Turkey? Potential Market Effects and Budgetary Implications

EU accession negotiations with Turkey are scheduled to start in October 2005. The period of accession negotiations will probably last for ten years or longer, but the effects of applying the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to Turkey are currently a controversial discussion in the EU. Effects of Turkish accession on EU agricultural markets are likely to be small. The EU would gain additional export opportunities for cereals and animal products. On the other hand, Turkish agricultural exports to the EU are projected to increase for only a few fruit and vegetable products. EU budgetary outlays for the application of the CAP to Turkey could total between £3.5 and £6.3 billion in 2015 – depending on whether direct payments are phased in or not – and £5.4 billion in 2025. Most of these outlays would be for direct payments to agricultural producers and that may not be in Turkey's best interest. This is because direct payments tend to be capitalized in land prices and may thus inhibit the necessary process of improving the Turkish agricultural structure. Transfers under the second pillar of the CAP may hold more interest for Turkey, because they can be targeted at improving productivity and thereby income. Projected outlays for the CAP take a backseat to projected transfers to Turkey under the structural policy of the EU.     

Intercultural Discourse Ethics: Testing Trompenaars' and Hampden-Turner's Conclusions about Americans and the French

Are culture driven ethical conflicts apparent in the discourse of the protagonists? A multi-year, multi-cultural study of managers by Trompenaars and Hampden-Turner resulted in two conclusions relevant to business ethics. The first is that intercultural business conflicts can often be traced to a finite set of cultural differences. The second is that enough similarities exist between cultures to provide the grounds for conflict resolution. The research reported here gives credence to their study when applied to an ethical conflict viewed from French and American perspectives.     

Productivity Growth,Human Capital and Technology Spillovers: Nonparametric Evidence for EU Regions

This paper assesses the strength of productivity spillovers nonparametrically in a data set of 12 industries and 231 NUTS2 regions in 17 European Union member countries between 1992 and 2006. It devotes particular attention to measuring the catching up through spillovers depending on the technology gap of a unit to the industry leader and the local human capital endowment. We find evidence of a nonlinear relationship between the technology gap to the leader as well as human capital and growth in logs. Spillovers are smallest for units with a medium‐high technology gap to the leader, especially for regions where human capital endowments are low.     

‘You're Good with your Hands,Why Don't You Become an Auto Mechanic’: Neighborhood Context,Institutions and Career Development

Previous research has linked sociodemographic neighborhood characteristics with labor market outcomes for youth, but this research has provided little evidence of how these linkages work. In this article I examine practices of urban institutions and the career development of inner‐city minority youth in the United States. A comparative study of two Latino inner‐city neighborhoods in San Antonio, Texas, analyzes in‐depth interviews with seventeen administrative officers of community‐based institutions. The results reveal that institutional practices and administrators' interpretations of the cultural attributes of youth and neighborhoods differ between the two case study areas. In one neighborhood, cultural preconceptions among administrators, accompanied by the spatial and social isolation of youth, channel some youth towards secondary careers. Institutions in the other neighborhood focus on social and spatial integration strategies and thereby facilitate acculturation. The article explores institutional practices of cultural marginalization. Certaines recherches ont déjè lié les caractéristiques socio‐démographiques des quartiers aux débouchés du marché du travail pour les jeunes, mais elles ont apporté peu d'indications sur les modes de fonctionnement de ces liens. Cet article examine les usages d'institutions urbaines et le parcours professionnel de jeunes de minorités vivant dans des quartiers urbains déshérités aux Etats‐Unis. Une étude comparative de deux quartiers défavorisés latino‐américains de San Antonio (Texas) analyse les entretiens poussés réalisés avec dix‐sept agents administratifs d'institutions liées á la collectivité. Les résultats révélent que les usages institutionnels et les interprétations des administratifs quant aux attributs culturels de la jeunesse et des quartiers différent entre les deux zones d'étude. Dans l'une, les a priori culturels des administratifs, associés á l'isolement géographique et social des individus, canalisent les jeunes vers des carriéres de second ordre. Dans l'autre, les institutions se consacrent aux stratégies d'intégration sociale et spatiale, facilitant ainsi l'acculturation. Les pratiques institutionnelles de la marginalisation culturelle sont également examinées.     

Remarks on the foundations of actuarial science

Abstract

In a paper entjtled ?Critical Thoughts on Actuarial Science? read before the Swedish Actuarial Society and published in this part of the Journal K. ENGLUND has expressed some views which gave rise to objections also from my part in the verbal discussion at the meeting of the Society. In the following lines I have tried to develop my views about the most important questions touched upon in his paper.     

Employment Effects of Acquisitions: Evidence from Acquired European Firms

This paper examines the employment effects of acquisitions for acquired European firms, taking non-random selection of acquisition targets explicitly into account. Following the empirical firm growth literature and theories put forward in the mergers and acquisition (M&A) literature, we control for convergence dynamics in firm size and distinguish between different types of acquisitions. Empirically, we estimate an endogenous treatment model using accounting data for a newly created sample of acquired and non-acquired European firms. Our results reveal positive employment effects for different types of acquisitions indicating that M&As likely induce efficiency gains.     

Developments of the German Heat Market of Private Households Until 2030: A Simulation Based Analysis

The paper at hand studies the future development of the German heat market of private households until 2030 using a microeconomic simulation model developed by the authors. The model simulates the development of insulation measures and installed heating systems in the building stock, thereby incorporating a discrete choice model to represent the household decisions for heating systems. Because of the long lifetime of heating systems, the residential heating market adopts slowly. Natural gas fired burners still remain the most important heating system until 2030 whereas fuel oil technologies further lose market shares. Final energy consumption is projected to decrease by about 20?% between 2010 and 2030 primarily due to modernization of heating systems and therefore a higher fuel efficiency. Accordingly, sectoral greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by 24?%.     

Agents as Empirical Macroeconomists: Thomas J. Sargent’s Contribution to Economics*

Thomas J. Sargent has fundamentally changed and, in the words of Art Rolnick, who interviewed him in 2010, “irrevocably transformed” the field of macroeconomics—whether as sole author, as co‐author with collaborators, as an author influenced by others, or as a teacher of the profession, influencing others. This paper is about his contribution to our field. The Nobel Memorial prize to Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims has been awarded for the “empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy” or, more broadly, for macroeconometrics. One often likes to distinguish between theorists, on the one hand, and empiricists and econometricians, on the other. Thomas J. Sargent holds a unique position in between. A key theme in a large part of his work has been to put the agents in his model on equal footing with the econometrician who is observing data from the model (i.e., to assume that agents are themselves empirical macroeconomists or macroeconometricians). In this paper, I use this theme to examine his work and his contributions to the study of economics.