The zip (postal) code difference: methods to improve identification of rural subgroups

Over the past decade national policymakers have grappled with the increasingly difficult issue of implementing programs which sustain the viability of the rural health care system. The set of problems that are of major concern to these decisionmakers include: (1) the shifts in the utilization patterns away from the rural health care delivery system; (2) the impact of modification in the health care reimbursement system which disproportionately favors urban health systems; and, (3) the continuing difficulty in affecting the disproportionate supply of health providers in urban areas compared to rural settings. The complex nature of health services research demands a multidisciplinary approach especially on sociocultural problems such as rural health delivery. Effective analysis in health care crosses many disciplinary boundaries such as medicine, nutrition, economics, sociology, and public health among others disciplines. A major concern to many of these rural health research analysts is the ad hoc treatment of the rural populace in federal and state health policy decisionmaking. The key to understanding the variance in treatment of rural health can be appreciated by reviewing the accuracy of rural definitions. In the present study, a refined rural definition is proposed which will assist research analysts in providing greater information on the distribution of rural health care services. A preliminary analysis of the proposed definitions indicates that a more precise measurement of rural provides greater accuracy in determining the medical needs of rural areas. Adaptation of the concept will benefit the decisionmaking process through improvements in the methodological approach to rural health research. State legislators, regional and state planning agencies, federal funding agencies, foundations, and other programs involved in support of rural life program will be better able to assess the impact of programs through use of the new definition. Finally, a refined typology for rural will also effect other research endeavors and appears to be generalizable to research on other pertinent rural delivery issues such as transportation, education, and regional planning.     

CHANGES IN MARKET PERCEPTION OF RISKINESS: THE CASE OF TOO-BIG-TO-FAIL

In 1984, the Comptroller of the Currency stated that the eleven largest banking firms were “too big to fail,” implying they would receive de facto 100 percent deposit insurance. The question is whether this announcement altered the market's perception of the riskiness of all banking organizations, not just those included in the Comptroller's statement. We address this question with two tests. First, through the examination of changes in institutional equity ownership from 1980 through 1988, we find that the announcement is associated with increases in institutional ownership at a time when a comparable set of nonfinancial firms saw reductions in institutional holdings. Second, through the examination of stock returns behavior of bank holding companies around announcements of dividend cuts and omissions from 1974 through 1991, we find that the Comptroller's 1984 announcement altered the market's reaction to dividend cuts and omissions by bank holding companies not specifically included in the Comptroller's statement.     

Making futures research useful: The practitioner's opportunity

Futures research has a vital and practical contribution to make to the business world, to the improvement of marketing strategy. However, futures researchers need to have increased experience in a business environment to be fully aware of the multiplicity of factors to be considered in formulating a plan for marketing strategy and forecasting business events. Ultimately the futurists' greatest contribution is not one of accurate prediction but of orchestration and coordination of ideas from disparate sources.