Genetically Modified Crops: Their Market and Welfare Impacts

A framework is developed for examining price and welfare effects of the introduction of genetically modified (GM) products. In the short run, non-GM grain generally becomes another identity-preserved product. However, more profound market effects are observed under some reasonable parameterizations. When calibrated to reflect the U.S. corn market, introducing GM technology increases aggregate welfare over a wide range of scenarios, unless the corresponding production cost savings are small and consumers are seriously concerned about GM products. The possibility that GM technology may reduce aggregate welfare is interesting because the model assumes rational agents and does not include regulatory constraints.     

The Cognitive Style Index: A Measure of Intuition-Analysis For Organizational Research

Almost 1000 adults participated in the development of the Cognitive Style Index (CSI), a new measure designed specifically for use with managerial and professional groups. the objectives of the study were, first, to produce a psychome-trically sound instrument suitable for application in large-scale organizational studies, and second, through its development, to confirm empirically the generic intuition-analysis dimension of cognitive style. Findings suggest that each objective was largely fulfilled. At a time when there is a burgeoning interest in intuition as a basis for decision making and problem solving in organizations, the CSI would appear to be a notable addition to the small collection of measures appropriate for survey research.     

THE LEARNING STYLES QUESTIONNAIRE: AN ALTERNATIVE TO KOLB'S INVENTORY?

An important consideration in the design of educational programmes is the learning style of students. In the field of management education, Kolb's theory of learning styles has received particular attention. Research has shown, however, that his associated measure, the Learning Style Inventory (LSI), may be of doubtful utility. the present study of British and overseas managers examines the measurement properties of one alternative, Honey and Mumford's Learning Styles Questionnaire (LSQ). the results, calling into question Kolb's theory itself, suggest that the LSQ may be preferred to the LSI on account of the distribution of its scores, its temporal stability and its construct and face validity. Its predictive validity, however, remains in doubt.     

Effects of limit order book information level on market stability metrics

Using an agent-based model of the limit order book, we explore how the levels of information available to participants, exchanges, and regulators can be used to improve our understanding of the stability and resiliency of a market. Ultimately, we want to know if electronic market data contains previously undetected information that could allow us to better assess market stability. Using data produced in the controlled environment of an agent-based model’s limit order book, we examine various resiliency indicators to determine their predictive capabilities. Most of the types of data created have traditionally been available either publicly or on a restricted basis to regulators and exchanges, but other types have never been collected. We confirmed our findings using actual order flow data with user identifications included from the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and New York Mercantile Exchange. Our findings strongly suggest that high-fidelity microstructure data in combination with price data can be used to define stability indicators capable of reliably signaling a high likelihood for an imminent flash crash event about one minute before it occurs.     

Effects of time horizon and asset condition on the profitability of technical trading rules

In much of the literature, the debate over technical trading strategies has centered around the question of whether an actively managed portfolio, controlled by a technical indicator, can outperform a passively managed portfolio. Typically, the time horizon is considered to be years. Additionally, the trader is assumed to use a technical trading strategy that is independent of asset conditions. These assumptions may not correspond well with reality. Traders often have much shorter time horizons and may switch between rebalancing or trading strategies on the basis of perceived shifts in market condition. This paper presents a study of the profitability of technical trading rules as a function of asset state or condition. Several common technical trading strategies were run on 296 stocks over a 15 year period. Strategies were run with 1 month rolling time horizons, significantly shorter than those used in similar studies in the literature. Stocks were segmented based on volatility and volume, which allowed for the examination of a strategy’s performance in different asset conditions. Several strategies were demonstrated to have consistently better risk-to-reward ratios under specific asset conditions and short time horizons. This finding helps to explain why some practitioners implement technical trading strategies.     

Regional welfare loss meaures of the 1973 oil embargo: a numerical methods approach

A simple exercise of time-series analysis shows that the presence of the phonomenon of temporal aggregation in quarterly consumption data can substantially alter the empirical inference about Hall' mocel of consumption behaviour. This fact has received almost no attention in the econometric research in this field.     

The Manager as a Person

Abstract Professor John Roemer has defended a future market socialist order. His model would encompass an egalitarian coupon market for the ownership of firm shares, a private sector for firms below a certain size, a system of public bank loans for the raising of capital, and an industrial policy of differential interest rates for various economic sectors. This paper argues that such a model would generate perverse incentives for firms, shareholders, public officials, and private entrepreneurs. It also argues that Roemer's contention that such a model would produce a more environmentally sensitive polity is problematic.     

The Point of Effective Demand

Abstract

Keynes's principle of effective demand conceives competitive equilibrium in terms of the choices of entrepreneurs, investors and consumers, rather than of the optimal allocation of factors of production. In The General Theory, effective demand is distinguished from aggregate demand and from income, expected or realised, and there is no suggestion that equilibrium means the convergence of expectations. Reconsideration of Keynes's use of time and equilibrium periods leads to the conclusion that he treats employment as in continuous equilibrium, at the point of effective demand, determined by the state of expectation, the correctness of which is strictly irrelevant. The nature of the equilibrium represented by the point of effective demand is here described, not in terms of the multiplier, but in terms of the continuous equilibrium of supply and demand in short-term forward markets. This reading is faithful to Keynes's conception of aggregate demand as dependent upon the expectations of entrepreneurs, and it resolves the meaning of his ‘long-period employment.’ Formal appendices identify the differences between Keynes and Walras and the nature of the multiplier. The paper concludes that the Keynesian cross and ‘Swedish’ analysis should be abandoned, and the Walrasian conception recognised as only the limiting case of general competitive equilibrium in a monetary economy.     

Productivity and efficiency in the US: effects of business cycles and public capital

We add to the literature on the US productivity slowdown and effects of public capital on productivity by employing Malmquist productivity indexes to measure productivity. These indexes allow us to decompose productivity growth into efficiency change and technological innovation. We derive these components for each observation, which we exploit to explore factors which may lead to differences in productivity across regions, including business cycles, both own-state and cross-border public infrastructure investment, and relative sizes of the manufacturing, service and public sector. Our results suggest that the components of total factor productivity change lend important insights into the fairly complex effects of public capital on productivity growth.