Effective Demand: Securing the Foundations

Abstract

This paper is one of three contributions to a symposium commenting on papers previously published by the other authors. Allain (Allain, O. (2009) Effective demand and short-term adjustments in the General Theory, Review of Political Economy, 21, pp. 1–22) argues that Keynes elides a distinction between aggregate demand and global expenditure that is necessary to explain the formation of price expectations by individual entrepreneurs. Allain's conclusions depend upon redefinitions of aggregate and effective demand and the consumption function. Hartwig (Hartwig, J. (2007) Keynes vs. the Post Keynesians on the principle of effective demand, European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 14, pp. 725–739) argues that entrepreneurs must take into account the state of the economy as a whole, in order to form price expectations independently and not as a market equilibrium determined by aggregate supply and demand. This leaves demand price expectations to be determined outside the principle of effective demand. Neither author does full justice to Keynes's own treatment. We still need to agree by what mechanism individual entrepreneurs form a collective and mutually consistent state of expectation in The General Theory.     

Keynes's Z function, heterogeneous output and marginal productivity

Keynes was adamant that the assumption of homogeneous outputand capital in macroeconomic theory is inadmissable. His aggregatesupply or Z function is a generalisation of Marshall's ordinarysupply function to take account of heterogeneous output, andis an essential element of the principle of effective demand.The ‘linear Z curve’ controversy can be attributedto Keynes's desire to demonstrate how his general monetary theoryof value and output encompasses the special case of Classicaltheory, including the marginal productivity theorem. The infamoussecond footnote on pages 55–6 of The General Theory canthereby be fully resolved.     

Are Prices Higher for the Poor in New York City?

Despite earlier evidence to the contrary, recent inquiries appear to reach a consensus that the poor pay more for food. However, these studies utilize samples drawn on the basis of prior knowledge of unfair pricing strategies, proximity of volunteer surveyors, or selected by other non-random methods. This paper revisits the issue of price discrimination by analyzing price data collected using a stratified, random sample design to answer the question of whether prices are higher in poor, urban neighborhoods. Contrary to the recent literature, it is found that market prices in poor neighborhoods are not higher than those in more affluent areas.     

An Analysis of Regional Economic Growth in the U.S. Midwest

In this paper, we examine more closely some of the forces that underlie economic growth at the county level. In an effort to describe a much more comprehensive regional economic growth model, we address a variety of different hypotheses by introducing a large number of growth-related variables. When formulating our hypotheses and specifying our growth model, we make liberal use of geographic mapping software to describe the data so as to "paint" a picture of where growth spots exist. Our empirical estimation indicates amenities, state and local tax burdens, population density, amount of primary agriculture activity, and demographics have important impacts on economic growth.     

The Roles of Performance Measures and Monitoring in Annual Governance Decisions in Entrepreneurial Firms

This paper analyzes annual corporate governance decisions at firms making initial public offerings (IPOs) of common stock between 1996 and 1999. Our objective is to examine relations between firms' corporate governance decisions and the informativeness of available measures of managerial performance. We consider financial measures such as earnings and stock return, as well as direct monitoring. We collect a sample of IPO firms from the manufacturing, Internet, and technology (non-Internet) industries, and examine how the use of various performance measures in annual compensation grants and turnover decisions varies with the information environment of the firm and with the extent of venture capital influence. Consistent with prior research that finds earnings are of limited usefulness in firm valuation for Internet firms, we find Internet firms place less importance on earnings and greater importance on stock returns in determining compensation grants than do non-Internet firms. We also find that compensation grants of firms with little or no venture capital influence display significantly stronger association with accounting and stock performance measures than those of firms with more intense monitoring by venture capitalists. This result is consistent with direct monitoring and the use of explicit performance measures acting as substitute governance mechanisms.     

The Ramsay Report and the Regulation of Auditor Independence in Australia

This paper provides an overview of key recommendations contained in the Ramsay Report (2001), "Independence of Australian Company Auditors", vis-à-vis current Australian requirements and the overseas developments on which they are based. Specific reference is made to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission "Rules on Audit Independence", released in November 2000, and the proposals contained in the International Federation of Accountants Ethics Committee's re-exposure draft, "Independence—Proposed Changes to the Code of Ethics for Professional Accountants", released in April 2001.     

Collective Marketing Arrangements for Geographically Differentiated Agricultural Products: Welfare Impacts and Policy Implications

We examine the incentives of atomistic producers to differentiate and collectively market products. We analyze market and welfare effects of alternative producer organizations, discuss circumstances under which they will evolve, and describe implications for the ongoing debate between the EU and the United States. As fixed costs of development and marketing increase and the anticipated market size falls, it becomes essential to increase the producer organization's ability to control supply to cover the fixed costs associated with the introduction of differentiated products. Counterintuitively, stronger property right protection for producer organizations may enhance welfare even after a differentiated product has been developed.     

Demand System Estimation with Upward-Sloping Supply

There are three important implications of this work. First, demand systems estimates that overlook supply response are as subject to simultaneous equations bias as single ad hoc demand equations. Theil shows theoretically that assuming supply curves are perfectly elastic, when in fact they are not will underestimate price responsiveness in demand equations. An empirical example is presented that demonstrates that the price elasticities generally increase when upward-sloping supplies are assumed.
Second, the iterative testing procedure presented may provide direction for model building when the true structure of the system is unknown. For example, the results of the Wu-Hausman test indicate that assuming chicken supply is perfectly elastic in a model of the Japanese livestock industry is justified. The results also indicate that the supplies of Wagyu beef, dairy beef, pork and fish are upward-sloping and therefore should be modeled as endogenous variables in the demand system.
Third, the results emphasize the sensitivity of projections of Japanese beef imports to the assumptions underlying the demand system. If perfectly elastic meat supplies are assumed for an analysis of reducing Japanese beef import liberalization, the results will likely underestimate the impacts on beef imports.
In summary, the supply curves for agricultural products tend to slope upward within the time periods used for traditional policy analysis and demand system estimation, which in turn implies that prices are determined endogenously within the system. Endogenous price determination is contrary to the assumptions that underlie the theoretical foundations and many empirical applications of demand systems. We present a methodology to test for and adjust demand systems for endogeneity. The importance of this adjustment is demonstrated by using an analysis of the liberalization of the Japanese beef market.     

Welfare Impacts of Intellectual Property Protection in the Seed Industry

We examine the welfare impact of different intellectual property protection (IPP) regimes in private sector seed research and development (R&D). We take into account the period after expiration of legal IPP, and require simultaneous equilibrium in markets for R&D, seeds, and final product. Optimal IPP is remarkably insensitive to alternative parameterizations, except for R&D productivity. Results suggest that optimal IPP is greater than IPP in the U.S. seed corn market, but lower than the IPP that could be attained with genetic use restriction technologies. Optimal IPP is much higher than IPP achieved under open-pollinated crops or where legal IPP is limited.