Actuarial Fairness of Crop Insurance Rates with Constant Rate Relativities

Increased availability and demand for low-deductible crop insurance policies have increased focus on crop insurance rating methods. Actuarial fairness cannot be achieved if constant multiplicative factors are used to determine how premiums change as coverage levels increase. A comparison of premium rates generated by the factors used by the two most popular crop insurance products with those generated by a standard yield distribution shows that the popular insurance products overcharge for low-deductible policies in most counties. This overpricing may explain why large premium subsidies were required to induce farmers to move from low-deductible to high-deductible policies beginning in 2001.     

Knowing stories that matter: learning for effective safety decision-making

Ongoing safe operation of hazardous industries such as hydrocarbon production and transportation, air traffic control and nuclear power generation depends on effective decision-making by those in key positions. Safety studies often focus on the extent to which actions of operational personnel in particular are dictated by procedures or rules and hence reinforce the need for compliance to ensure the best outcomes. This article directs attention to a different area – the judgements made by experts in the cases that are not covered by rules and, in particular, the key role of stories and storytelling. This ethnographic research draws on literature related to high-reliability theory, organisational learning and naturalistic decision-making to examine how experts working in diverse critical contexts use stories to share and make sense of their experiences. It argues that such stories are vital to effective decision-making as a result of both the general and specific lessons that they embody. Our analysis shows that experts use stories as parables to nurture their ability to imagine possible outcomes and maintain a safety imagination. Stories are also embedded in work practices to support decision-making in the moment. Finally, stories are strongly linked to organisational learning for experts as a group and in mentoring less-experienced colleagues. We argue that the increased focus on incident reporting systems in hazardous industries, which is driven at least in part by a consideration of organisational learning, is failing in this regard because such systems do not facilitate story-based learning. We appeal to organisations to support story-based learning with as much vigour as formal systems for professional development and reporting.     

Shifting risk to the frontline: case studies in different contract working environments

An extensive body of safety literature and research discusses the integral role of rules and procedures in managing workplace hazards, ensuring worker safety, and safeguarding the environment. Nevertheless, organizational accidents and workplace injuries continue to occur, and individual employees often bear the brunt of responsibility. This paper examines how risk becomes shifted to individuals at the bottom of supply chains, focusing on two different groups of contract workers. Specifically, it draws on case studies conducted in Australia – one on civil contractors working around hazardous infrastructure and one on athletes who are subject to anti-doping requirements. A comparison of the two cases and their distinctive elements illuminates the ways in which structural pressures, organizational dynamics, and context-specific conditions influence the risks shouldered by individuals. Our analysis shows that, in both cases, adverse outcomes are widely seen as the responsibility of contract workers, prompting other actors to judge them as blameworthy. In doing so, risk in various forms (e.g. safety, financial, reputational) becomes shifted onto workers who are constrained by contracts and away from away from higher level actors and organizations that are generally in more powerful positions than frontline workers. This finding suggests that the burden of accountability and potentially liability is borne primarily by frontline workers. Because of this focus, it is easy to lose sight of organizational and structural conditions that contribute to the risks revealed at the individual level. Through an analysis of 57 interviews across both sectors, complemented by participant observations and a media review, this paper underscores the importance of critically considering not only individual worker actions, but also how regulation can support the diversion of risk, responsibility, and liability onto frontline workers.     

Money,Investment and Consumption: Keynes's Macroeconomics Rethought

The dominant supply-side foundation for explanations of the growth potential of an economy is losing its persuasive power in the face of persistent losses in output and employment experienced by mature economies in the aftermath of the financial crisis. There is now an opening for eclectic approaches that consider the interaction between supply-side and demand-side factors in shaping macroeconomic outcomes. In this paper, we develop a model that reflects such an approach to interpreting differential productivity growth over the long run, and then present empirical results for several countries. On the supply-side, the model considers the linkage between the intensity and efficacy of the accumulation process and the gains of productivity in terms of a Kaldorian Technical Progress Function. Then, drawing on the Evsey Domar's Keynesian notion of dynamic equilibrium as the growth rate that reconciles additions to capacity with the absorption of aggregate output by demand, we derive a locus for a ‘Domar equilibrium path’. Imbalances caused by excess aggregate supply or demand, and by the effects of ‘shocks’ are presented and discussed using a simple graphical framework. In the empirical analysis, an error-correction model is applied to the fundamental relationship between the rate of growth of product per work-hour and the rate of capital accumulation. The results suggest that the differences in productivity growth among countries are can be explained in terms of the efficiency of their ‘accumulation paths’.     

Is Airline Price Dispersion the Result of Careful Planning or Competitive Forces?

We develop a model of price dispersion to distinguish the impact of price discrimination from that of peak load pricing schemes or atypical competition resulting from the financial difficulties of the early 1990s. By utilizing three alternative measures of dispersion and appealing to economic theory for our specification, we find robust results suggesting an estrangement between price dispersion and price discrimination. While some discrimination continues to persist at monopolized endpoints, most dispersion is associated with fare wars and peak load pricing schemes.     

The occupations of slaves sold in New Orleans: Missing values,cheap talk,or informative advertising?

Although plantation records indicate that many slaves in the southern USA were artisans and craftsmen, relatively few slaves were recorded as such on the New Orleans sales invoices. Fogel (Without consent or contract: the rise and fall of American slavery. W. W. Norton & Company, New York, 1989, p. 57, 162) assumes that the slaves without recorded occupations were unskilled workers, concluding that skilled slaves were “less than half as likely to have been sold as were ordinary field hands.” Using data from New Orleans newspapers, we find that most sales advertisements include information about the slave’s occupation. A comparison of the advertisement with the corresponding sales invoice shows that the slave’s occupation was often omitted from the invoice. Because the slave’s market price should reflect all relevant information available at the time of sale, the informational value of the slave’s advertised occupation can be estimated using regression analysis. We find that the advertised occupation affected the slave’s market price, which suggests that newspaper advertisements were informative and not simply “cheap talk.”     

The role of floor brokers in the supply of liquidity: An empirical analysis

This article analyses the role of floor brokers in the supply of liquidity on the Australian Stock Exchange Derivatives market. Floor brokers have valuable order execution skills because of their information advantage over off‐floor traders and their ability to mitigate some problems related to the option‐like characteristics of limit orders. Our results indicate that floor broker participation in the execution of limit orders tends to be high when the above qualities are most valuable. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:205–218, 2000     

CEO pay and the Lake Wobegon Effect

The “Lake Wobegon Effect,” which is widely cited as a potential cause for rising CEO pay, is said to occur because no firm wants to admit to having a CEO who is below average, and so no firm allows its CEO's pay package to lag market expectations. We develop a game-theoretic model of this Effect. In our model, a CEO's wage may serve as a signal of match surplus, and therefore affect the value of the firm. We compare equilibria of our model to a full-information case and derive conditions under which equilibrium wages are distorted upward.     

Insuring Against Losses from Transgenic Contamination: The Case of Pharmaceutical Maize

Concerns about the risk of food supply contamination have limited the development and commercialization of certain pharmaceutical plants. This article develops an insurance pricing model that helps translate these concerns into a cost-benefit analysis. The model first estimates the physical dispersal of maize pollen subject to a number of weather parameters. This distribution is then validated with the limited amount of currently available field trial data. The physical distribution is then used to calculate the premium for a fair-valued insurance policy that would fund the destruction of possibly contaminated fields. The flexible framework can be readily adapted to other crops, management practices, and regions.     

Open-source intelligence for risk assessment

Advances in information technology (IT) have prompted tremendous growth in security issues for companies. Increasingly, cyberattacks represent a threat to companies and national security; to prevent them, firms should routinely perform risk assessments of their IT infrastructure and employees. This article highlights the importance of open-source intelligence (OSINT) tools in conducting risk assessments to prevent cyberattacks. More specifically, we performed a vulnerability assessment on the critical infrastructure of a company operating on the U.S. electrical grid. We successfully profiled the company’s network software, hardware, and key IT personnel—using OSINT—and detailed potential vulnerabilities associated with these findings. The results of our study provide empirical evidence for the efficacy of OSINT in improving the security posture of organizations. Our research findings were subsequently used to produce tactical and strategic recommendations for organizations based on the use of OSINT to identify vulnerabilities, mitigate risks, and formulate more robust security policies to prevent cyberattacks.