On consistency of redescending M-kernel smoothers

M-estimators and M-kernel estimators with a redescending ψ-function are not in general consistent. This is often handled by means of coupling the estimator to a consistent one. Coupling the estimator to the (inconsistent) starting point improves the jump preserving properties. However, the consistency depends heavily on the shape of the density of the residuals. This paper shows inconsistency under convenient conditions as well as consistency – even at jump points – under somewhat stronger conditions. Research supported by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation and by grant Mu 1031/4-1/2 of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft     

The Productivity of Government Spending in Asia: 1983–2000

Leightner [The Changing Effectiveness of Key Policy Tools in Thailand. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies for East Asian Development Network, EAON Working Paper 19(2002)x0219-6417] develops a new analytical technique, named Reiterative Truncated Projected Least Squares (RTPLS), which produces 1/2 the error of OLS when omitted variables interact with the included independent variable. In this paper, RTPLS is applied to annual panel data on government spending and GDP from 1983 to 2000 for 23 developing Asian and Pacific countries. RTPLS produces estimates for the government spending multiplier for these countries and shows how omitted variables have affected these multipliers across countries and over time.JEL Classification: C13, E62, O23     

Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in central and eastern Europe

The paper presents an extended version of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate model (FEER), which introduces potential output into foreign trade equations. We show that with this specification and under some plausible assumptions the equilibrium exchange rate is consistent with the behavioral equilibrium exchange model (BEER). We use the extended FEER model to analyze fluctuations of the real exchange rate in four central and eastern European countries. The resulting FEER calculations show that the appreciation of the real exchange rates in these countries in the past nine years is largely an equilibrium phenomenon.     

Planung und Unternehmenserfolg: Stylized Facts aus der empirischen Controllingforschung im deutschsprachigen Raum von 1990–2007

Zusammenfassung Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht, inwieweit die empirische Controllingforschung im deutschsprachigen Raum von 1990 bis 2007 belastbare Aussagen (“Stylized Facts”) zum Zusammenhang zwischen der Gestaltung der Planung als bedeutsamem Teil der Controllerarbeit und dem Controlling- bzw. Unternehmenserfolg erarbeitet hat. Insgesamt werden fünfzehn Studien analysiert, aus denen Stylized Facts zu Planungsintensit?t, Planungsrationalit?t, Planungsoffenheit, Planungsintegration und Planungsdauer sowie zu Opportunismus und Kompetenzgef?lle als soziale Gestaltungsfaktoren der Planung hergeleitet werden. Zum einen zeigen die Ergebnisse den Beitrag der empirischen Controllingforschung zum Verst?ndnis der Planung als Führungsteilfunktion. Zum anderen k?nnen verschiedenste Aussagen zur Gestaltung der Planung in handlungsleitender Form an die Unternehmenspraxis zurückgespielt werden.      

A Hierarchical Marketing Communications Model of Online and Offline Media Synergies

We propose a new hierarchical model of online and offline advertising. This model incorporates within-media synergies and cross-media synergies and allows higher-order interactions among various media. We derive the optimal spending on each medium and the optimal total budget. We also develop three hypotheses on the effects of within- and across-media synergies on both the total budget and its allocation. We estimate media effectiveness as well as the within- and cross-media synergies of offline (television, print, and radio) and online (banners and search) ads using market data for a car brand. We show that both types of synergies —within-media (i.e., intra-offline) and cross-media (online-offline)— exist. We show how within- and cross-media synergies boost the total media budget and online spending due to synergies of the online media with various offline media.     

International Environmental Agreements and Strategic Voting*

This paper explores the outcome of an international environmental agreement when the governments are elected by their citizens. It also considers a voter's incentives for supporting candidates who are less green than she is. In the extreme case of “global” pollution, the elected politicians pay no attention to the environment, and the resulting international agreement is totally ineffective. Moreover, if governments cannot negotiate and have to decide non‐cooperatively (and voters are aware of this), the elected politicians can be greener, ecological damage can be lower and the median voter's payoff can be higher than in the case with bargaining.     

External shocks, U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets

Estimated structural VARs show that external shocks are an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets. Furthermore, U.S. monetary policy shocks affect interest rates and the exchange rate in a typical emerging market quickly and strongly. The price level and real output in a typical emerging market respond to U.S. monetary policy shocks by more than the price level and real output in the U.S. itself. These findings are consistent with the idea that “when the U.S. sneezes, emerging markets catch a cold.” At the same time, U.S. monetary policy shocks are not important for emerging markets relative to other kinds of external shocks.     

Evolutionary Stability in the Ultimatum Game

Biologically motivated concepts of evolutionary stability, like the ESS, consider robustness against tiny invasions of mutants. This paper considers larger invasions and proposes an extended stability calculus. The new concept is applied to the ultimatum game and gives an evolutionary explanation for the emergence of egalitarian, "fair" behaviour.     

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