Customer reactions to acquirer-dominant mergers and acquisitions

This article investigates consumer reactions to acquirer-dominant mergers and acquisitions (M&As) from the perspective of the (smaller) target brand and explores how marketing actions can mitigate negative effects. The findings from five studies show that consumers tend to react negatively to M&As by devaluing the acquirer brand, increasing their intention to switch, and adjusting their attitudes toward the target brand upward. We suggest that psychological reactance is a mediator of the negative effects of merger information on customers' attitudes and switching intentions. We also demonstrate that brand managers can attenuate reactance by involving consumers in merger decisions, thus providing important managerial implications for M&A decisions and processes.     

Geography, skills or both: What explains Fed watchers’ forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?

The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 individual professional forecasters since 1999, the average absolute forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5–10 basis points between the best and worst-performers across the sample. This heterogeneity is found to be related to both the skills of analysts – such as their educational and employment backgrounds – and to geography. In particular, forecasters located in regions which experience more idiosyncratic economic conditions perform worse in anticipating monetary policy. This evidence is indicative that limited attention and heterogeneous priors are present even for anticipating important events such as monetary policy decisions.     

Measures and measurement: Process and practise

Even although case studies remain one of the most widely utilised approaches in the study of industrial markets, debate continues about the apparent lack of any consistency in the way the case study method is applied. While acknowledging the shortcomings, this paper highlights the strengths and celebrates the diversity of the case study approach in developing and testing theory. Seven outstanding cases, selected from the Fourth Meeting of the IMP Group in Asia are presented.     

WHICH VARIABLES EXPLAIN DECISIONS ON IMF CREDIT? AN EXTREME BOUNDS ANALYSIS

This paper analyses which economic and political factors affect the chance that a country receives IMF credit or signs an agreement with the Fund. We use a panel model for 118 countries over the period 1971–2000. Our results, based on extreme bounds analysis, suggest that it is mostly economic variables that are robustly related to IMF lending activity, while most political variables that have been put forward in previous studies on IMF involvement are non-significant. To the extent that political factors matter, they seem more closely related to the conclusion of IMF agreements than to the disbursement of IMF credits.     

Intergenerational Effects of Guaranteed Pension Contracts

In this paper we show that there exist intergenerational cross-subsidization effects in guaranteed interest rate life and pension contracts as the different generations partially share the same reserves. Early generations build up bonus reserves, which are left with the company at expiry of the contract. These bonus reserves function partly as a subsidy of later generations, such that the latter earn a risk-adjusted return above the risk-free rate. Furthermore, we show that this subsidy may be large enough to explain why late generations buy guaranteed interest rate products, which otherwise would not have been part of the optimal portfolio allocation.