Book reviews

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Münzunion oder Währungsunion?

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Zum Problem optimaler Wachstumspfade in mehrsektoralen Modellen

Zusammenfassung Ausgangspunkt bildet ein Produktionsmodell, das durch eine Kombination von zwischensektoraler Prozeßbeschreibung und allgemeinen sektoralen Produktionsfunktionen gewissen empirischen Befunden über input-output-Struktur und Substitutionseffekten theoretisch zu entsprechen versucht. Auf dieser Basis läßt sich eine Reihe von Problemen des optimalen Wachstums (welfaremaximierende Pfade, optimale Beschäftigungspfade, konsummaximierende Pfade) als klassische Variationsprobleme formulieren. Schließlich wurde ein allgemeiner Ausblick auf andere Interpretationen (steuerbare Prozesse) und diesen angemessene Lösungstechniken größerer Leistungsfähigkeit (Maximumprinzip von Pontrjagin) eröffnet.Mit 1 Textabbildung     

On the (nonlinear) relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and trade — An investigation of US trade figures in the group of seven

In this paper bilateral models formalizing monthly growth of US imports and exports are employed to investigate the potential of nonlinear relationships linking exchange rate uncertainty and trade growth. Parametric linear and nonlinear as well as semiparametric time series models are evaluated in terms of fitting and ex ante forecasting. The overall impact of exchange rate variations on trade growth is found to be weak. In periods of large exchange rate variations, trade growth forecasts gain from conditioning on volatility. Empirical results support the view that the relationship of interest might be non-linear and, moreover, lacks homogeneity across countries and imports vs. exports. JEL no. C14, C22, F31, F41     

Sustainable and Excessive Current Account Deficits

Both the Mexican crisis of 1994–95 and the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 have been preceded by large current account deficits run by the affected economies. External deficits are often assumed to play an important role in the propagation of financial crises in emerging markets. Policymakers are faced with a new challenge: that of resisting or accepting the large current account deficits that may result from heavy private capital inflows. This paper aims at providing some guidance:First, the Lawson Doctrine – according to which current account deficits that result from a shift in private-sector behaviour should not be a public policy concern – has been discredited by recent currency crises in Latin America and Asia. Second, define the size of current account deficits that should be sustainable in the long run. Third, the intertemporal approach to the current account does not provide a reliable benchmark to define when deficits become excessive. Fourth, large external deficits should be resisted if unsustainable currency appreciation, excessive risk-taking in the banking system and a sharp private spending boom are seen to coincide.