Measuring Spot Variance Spillovers when (Co)variances are Time‐varying – The Case of Multivariate GARCH Models

We propose global and disaggregated spillover indices that allow us to assess variance and covariance spillovers, locally in time and conditionally on time‐t information. Key to our approach is the vector moving average representation of the half‐vectorized ‘squared’ multivariate GARCH process of the popular BEKK model. In an empirical application to a four‐dimensional system of broad asset classes (equity, fixed income, foreign exchange and commodities), we illustrate the new spillover indices at various levels of (dis)aggregation. Moreover, we demonstrate that they are informative of the value‐at‐risk violations of portfolios composed of the considered asset classes.     

Do funded pensions contribute to higher aggregate savings? A cross-country analysis

Do Funded Pensions Contribute to Higher Aggregate Savings? A Cross-Country Analysis.—In this paper we test the hypothesis that increases in funded pension wealth contribute to higher aggregate savings by employing a panel data set of ten countries over the 1982–1993 period. We develop a proxy for changes in funded pension wealth for this sample of countries based on pension fund asset data. Using this measure and controlling for other determinants of savings, we estimate the relationship between aggregate saving rates and changes in funded pension wealth. Our results suggest that the build-up of pension assets exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on aggregate saving rates, and that this impact differs for OECD and non-OECD countries. JEL no. E21, G23, O57     

Präsidentschaftswahl zeigt Frankreichs Spaltung

French presidential elections 2022 have significantly strengthened anti-EU populists. Traditional mainstream centrists are not among the big three election winners, while far-right Marine Le Pen deftly addressed the plight of the disengaged. The country’s rural-urban divide masks significant differences in voting motives; Paris is a stark outlier. Unemployment rates, low skills, and car dependency fuel Le Pen’s support, as well as xenophobia. The province has fought back against neglect by electing populists. It is doubtful whether place-based policies will solve the structural cause of the populist tendency by the next presidential election in five years.

     

The euro and its consequences: What makes a currency strong?

The creation of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the introduction of the euro was one of the great events in economic history after World War II. The basic attractiveness of the euro is its large and expanding transaction size and the independent central bank which pursues price stability as its primary goal. The basic strength of the dollar is the hysteresis effect based on economies of scale and network externalities. The conclusion in the paper is that at present the hysteresis effect dominates the sheer size effect and the dollar remains the key vehicle currency while the euro has established itself as the second most widely used currency in the world. The euro depreciated against the dollar in the first three years after its introduction. In the paper the euro weakness is explained by the positive growth differential in favor of the U.S. economy caused by the advance in IC-technology and a pick-up in total factor productivity. In the medium run, the outlook for the euro is favorable. The U.S. current account deficit is unsustainable and improvements require a substantial depreciation of the dollar.Distinguished Address presented at the Fifty-Fourth International Atlantic Economic Conference, Washington D.C., October 10–13, 2002.     

Portfolio credit-risk optimization

This paper evaluates several alternative formulations for minimizing the credit risk of a portfolio of financial contracts with different counterparties. Credit risk optimization is challenging because the portfolio loss distribution is typically unavailable in closed form. This makes it difficult to accurately compute Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) at the extreme quantiles that are of practical interest to financial institutions. Our formulations all exploit the conditional independence of counterparties under a structural credit risk model. We consider various approximations to the conditional portfolio loss distribution and formulate VaR and ES minimization problems for each case. We use two realistic credit portfolios to assess the in- and out-of-sample performance for the resulting VaR- and ES-optimized portfolios, as well as for those which we obtain by minimizing the variance or the second moment of the portfolio losses. We find that a Normal approximation to the conditional loss distribution performs best from a practical standpoint.     

Sicherungssysteme für Finanzdienstleistungsunternehmen im europäischen Vergleich – Theorieperspektive

The contribution discusses the design of guarantee schemes for financial services firms, with a focus on insurance guarantee schemes. It lists reasons that contribute to the development of guarantee schemes, especially stemming from a market failure risk. It further describes the pros and cons of ex-ante and of ex-post premium payments, and sets out arguments for and against risk based premiums of insurance guarantee schemes. The contribution also investigates whether the existence of insurance guarantee schemes might lead to a more risky insurance firm policy. Finally it examines in how far consumer protection based on insurance guarantee schemes prevents consumer protection based on market discipline that should be achieved by the third pillar of Solvency II.     

Exploring the ethical behavior of managers: A comparative study of four countries

Donaldson and Dunfee's (1994) social contracts theory of economic ethics was subjected to empirical scrutiny to determine whether it can explain differences in behavior between cultures. Data collected utilizing a series of vignettes developed by Fritzsche and Becker (1984) were examined for differences in indicated ethical behavior among American, Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese managers. Rationale for the behavior was classified according to hyper and community norms which were supported or violated. The results suggest that the three East Asian countries do not neatly cluster together in relation to the U.S. in terms of their patterns of ethical behavior. Nonetheless, when we examined the specific rationale for the decisions provided by the managers, the effects of Asian cultural characteristics became more notable. We also found that the social contracts theory provided a much needed bridge between ethical universalists and relativists. The specific reasons underlying their decisions are discussed in the light of cultural and social differences.This research project was partially supported by a research grant from the School of Business and Management, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.     

Delegation and incentives

This article analyzes the relation between authority and incentives. It extends the standard principal‐agent model by a project selection stage in which the principal can either delegate the choice of project to the agent or keep the authority. The agent's subsequent choice of effort depends both on monetary incentives and the selected project. We find that the consideration of effort incentives makes the principal less likely to delegate the authority over projects to the agent. In fact, if the agent is protected by limited liability, delegation is never optimal.