A model-free approach to continuous-time finance

We present a pathwise approach to continuous-time finance based on causal functional calculus. Our framework does not rely on any probabilistic concept. We introduce a definition of continuous-time self-financing portfolios, which does not rely on any integration concept and show that the value of a self-financing portfolio belongs to a class of nonanticipative functionals, which are pathwise analogs of martingales. We show that if the set of market scenarios is generic in the sense of being stable under certain operations, such self-financing strategies do not give rise to arbitrage. We then consider the problem of hedging a path-dependent payoff across a generic set of scenarios. Applying the transition principle of Rufus Isaacs in differential games, we obtain a pathwise dynamic programming principle for the superhedging cost. We show that the superhedging cost is characterized as the solution of a path-dependent equation. For the Asian option, we obtain an explicit solution.     

On the monetary policy in an economy with banks endogenously creating money

This paper attempts to employ a microeconomic model (industrial-organization approach to banking) to formalize the concept that banks in an economy may also unilaterally create money, at least initially, rather than passively multiplying the base money exogenously issued by the Central Bank in the money creation process. It shows that in equilibrium, banks may indeed create money (bank deposits) when making loans without relying on the newly issued base money from the Central Bank. Instead, the endogenously created money by banks would cause the Central Bank to endogenously adjust base money to hit the target policy interest rate.     

Barriers and Enablers of Long-term Land Leasing: a Case Study of Northern Ireland

Long-term land leasing offers a viable alternative to land ownership in relation to increasing efficiency of agricultural production, economies of scale, and delivering environmental improvements in terms of land management. However, with no significant tenanted sector in Northern Ireland, access to land via long-term land leasing is limited. This study analysed the barriers and enablers of long-term land leasing. To achieve our objective, we employed a mixed methods approach. The results show that the main barriers to long-term land leasing were environmental concern (around how the land will be managed), inheritance tax implications and the potential effect of long-term land leasing on future succession plans of the farm business. We also found that as much as 70 per cent of the farmers surveyed believe the inclusion of a ‘break clause’ and the introduction of income tax incentives will encourage the adoption of long-term land leasing, while 61 per cent of the farmers stated that the environmental management of the land will encourage long-term land leasing. The study concluded that any model designed to encourage long-term land leasing in Northern Ireland should include clauses which cover the environmental management of the land and break clauses. Income tax incentives for landowners could also be considered.