On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than 20 estimators common in the panel data literature using the data on migration to Germany from 18 source countries in the period 1967–2001. Our results suggest that the choice of an estimation procedure has a substantial impact on the parameter estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (1) the standard fixed effects estimators clearly outperforms the pooled OLS estimator, (2) both the fixed effects estimators and the hierarchical Bayes estimator exhibit the superior forecast performance, (3) the fixed effects estimators outperform GMM and other instrumental variables estimators, (4) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set.     

Bayesian model selection using encompassing priors

This paper deals with Bayesian selection of models that can be specified using inequality constraints among the model parameters. The concept of encompassing priors is introduced, that is, a prior distribution for an unconstrained model from which the prior distributions of the constrained models can be derived. It is shown that the Bayes factor for the encompassing and a constrained model has a very nice interpretation: it is the ratio of the proportion of the prior and posterior distribution of the encompassing model in agreement with the constrained model. It is also shown that, for a specific class of models, selection based on encompassing priors will render a virtually objective selection procedure. The paper concludes with three illustrative examples: an analysis of variance with ordered means; a contingency table analysis with ordered odds-ratios; and a multilevel model with ordered slopes.     

Goodness of fit in confirmatory factor analysis: The effects of sample size and model parsimony

The purpose of the present investigation is to examine the influence of sample size (N) and model parsimony on a set of 22 goodness-of-fit indices including those typically used in confirmatory factor analysis and some recently developed indices. For sample data simulated from two known population data structures, values for 6 of 22 fit indices were reasonably independent ofN and were not significantly affected by estimating parameters known to have zero values in the population: two indices based on noncentrality described by McDonald (1989; McDonald and Marsh, 1990), a relative (incremental) index based on noncentrality (Bentler, 1990; McDonald & Marsh, 1990), unbiased estimates of LISREL's GFI and AGFI (Joreskog & Sorbom, 1981) presented by Steiger (1989, 1990) that are based on noncentrality, and the widely known relative index developed by Tucker and Lewis (1973). Penalties for model complexity designed to control for sampling fluctuations and to address the inevitable compromise between goodness of fit and model parsimony were evaluated.     

Exploiting the Medium Term Biomass Energy Potentials in Austria: A Comparison of Costs and Macroeconomic Impact

The transition to an implicitly solar-basedenergy system can make use of various specificbiomass energy systems. This paper provideseconomic and environmental indicators forevaluating alternative options.The paper proceeds in three empirical steps.First, an expert survey supplies the primarybiomass potentials available for non-food usein Austria and their respective costs. Second,an inquiry into investment, operating andfinancing costs of 30 different biomass energyuse systems allows a standardized comparisonamong them and their relationship to fossilreference technologies. Third, a computablegeneral equilibrium model of the Austrianeconomy is employed to quantify the impacts offostering the use of distinct biomass energytechnologies.The results allow us to distinguish betweenthose technologies that tend to lead to anincrease in both GDP and employment (e.g.,combined heat and power production from sewagesludge biogas), to an increase only inemployment, while GDP tends to diminish (e.g.,district heating based on agricultural pellets)or to a decline in both (e.g., co-firing basedon wood-chips, bark or industrial pellets).Individual technologies could account for up toone third of Austrias Kyoto obligation, whilecombinations of technologies, triggered by acombined CO₂ tax and biomass energysubsidy for example, could almost fully lead toAustrian Kyoto-compliance.     

Do business customers perceive what salespeople believe? Perceptions of salesperson adoption of innovations

A salesperson's commitment and effort toward an innovation can determine whether the customer agrees to buy it, such that customers' perceptions of such commitment and effort are critical. But these perceptions also might differ fundamentally from the salesperson's self-perceptions of commitment and effort. Therefore, this paper presents a theoretical framework of the relation between salesperson-perceived and customer-perceived commitment and effort, as exhibited by the salesperson while selling an innovation, which represents salesperson adoption. In the framework, job satisfaction factors also exert contingent, moderating effects. The authors gather unique, dyadic data from surveys of salespeople and their (potential) business customers during visits to sell a conventional, incremental innovation, complemented by objective purchase data gathered from company records. Three key insights emerge fromt this study. First, salespeople's own perceptions of their commitment and effort have only moderate influences on customers' perceptions of salespeople's commitment and effort. Second, customers seem to recognize salesperson effort more readily than salesperson commitment, although salesperson commitment has a higher sales performance impact than salesperson effort. Thus, sales managers should seek to encourage and support both the commitment of salespeople and also perceptions of that commitment among customers. Third, while a higher organizational support or job autonomy strengthens customers' perceptions of salesperson adoption, a higher pay satisfaction diminishes it. Thus, firms might need to find ways to increase the support for the salespeople and their autonomy and to reduce salespeople's satisfaction with their (direct) payments. In total, these findings suggest significant scientific and managerial implications.     

Application of Multilevel Models to Structured Repeated Measurements

The linear mixed-effects model has been widely used for the analysis of continuous longitudinal data. This paper demonstrates that the linear mixed model can be adapted and used for the analysis of structured repeated measurements. A computational advantage of the proposed methodology is that there is no extra burden on the analyst since any software for linear mixed-effects models can be used to fit the proposed models. Two data sets from clinical psychology are used as motivating examples and to illustrate the methods.     

Lincoln Staffens and the McNamara Case: A Progressive Response to Class Conflict

A bstract . Lincoln Stevens' involvement with the McNamara case was one of the major concerns of his life. His Autobiography is not fully dependable regarding this incident; churches were not uniformly hostile to the settlement that ended the case and the Los Angeles Times , ignoring commitments to meet labor grievances, maintained its antiunion position. Steffens' experimentation with "Golden Rule" Christian love as an alternative to class conflict reflected his divergent allegiances to Progressives who sought reform and to radicals , basically opposed to corporate capitalism. It also reflected his own rejection of class partisanship. Although the pledges made in the settlement were broken, Steffens remained loyal to the McNamaras and continued to argue it is futile to punish individuals for acts rooted in social conflict.