How to design virus containment policies? A joint analysis of economic and epidemic dynamics under the COVID-19 pandemic

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - We analyze the impact of different designs of COVID-19-related lockdown policies on economic loss and mortality using a micro-level simulation...     

Chieftaincy and democratic local governance in rural South Africa: Natural resources management in QwaQwa

This paper examines the changing role of chieftaincy in relation to democratic institutions of local governance in QwaQwa in the Eastern Free State and in particular the implications for the management of natural resources. Referring to a case study of grass usage, the paper identifies the shift from chieftaincy to democratic local governance as one of the factors that have undermined the chiefs' control over the use of natural resources, as infrastructural development takes precedence over management of natural resources in municipal planning and service delivery. The ensuing absence of control over the use of grass broadly reflects the unclear institutional framework for natural resources management on communal land in rural South Africa. However, despite the power struggle that generally goes on between chiefs and elected councillors of QwaQwa, there is potential for building on areas of common interest to improve natural resources management in the area.     

Common stochastic trends and volatility in Asian-Pacific equity markets

This paper uses Johansen's cointegration test and a modified cointegration test with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effects to examine linkages between the U.S. and five Asian-Pacific stock markets (Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore) during the period from 1988 to 1994. The modified cointegration test with GARCH effects is used to assess whether these stock price series share common time-varying volatility. The results indicate that the six stock markets are highly integrated through the second moments of stock returns but not the first moments.     

Universal telecommunication service: A world perspective

Worldwide telecommunications demand is estimated in models for business and residential mainline telephone, and for mobile telephone service using separate models for developed and developing countries for the period 1996–2001. We test for cross-price elasticities between mainline and mobile service and find that the results are generally suggestive of current complementary relationships. We find residential monthly price elasticity to be no different than zero for a sample of developing countries, but the connection elasticity is statistically significant. Mobile monthly service elasticity is much larger than those for mainline service, suggesting that universal service in developing countries might be promoted more effectively with subsidies for mobile service. Income elasticities for the residential model are modest while the mobile service model income elasticity for developing countries is much higher. Expanding markets, income growth and enhanced education may be the ultimate universal service promoters.     

FOREIGN MANPOWER IN THE U.S. SCIENCES

Because of the recent public concern over the brain drain, this study attempts to measure the U.S. gain of highly skilled manpower. The paper discusses the serious short-comings of the data on gross immigration of scientists and engineers provided by the U.S. immigration authorities as a measure of true U.S. gains. In a case study of Swedish scientists and engineers it was found, for example, that whereas the U.S. data showed a gain of 106 Swedish scientists and engineers over a number of years, the net figure was only 26 after adjustment for remigration and the application of the proper OECD education criteria. The paper then reports the findings of a statistical study which uses the stock data on U.S. scientists in the National Register of Scientific and Technical Personnel to estimate the number of foreign born in this stock and analyse their characteristics with respect to age, educational attainment, and employment preferences. It was found that nearly 7 percent of all U.S. scientists are of foreign origin (foreign born and foreign secondary education), whereas 11.5 percent of all scientists with a Ph.D. are of foreign origin. The percentage among Ph.D. holders is highest in meteorology (22.3), followed by linguistics (18.7), physics (17.1) and statistics (14.6). The greatest percentage of scientists comes from Canada (10.4 per thousand), followed by Germany (8.3 per thousand) and the United Kingdom (6.7 per thousand). However, after adjustment of these data for the different sizes of the total foreign born population from each country in the U.S., it turns out that by this measure the greatest shares of scientists are supplied by the Japanese, followed by the Austrian-Swiss, Benelux and Canadians. The analysis of the age composition of all foreign born reveals that in the age groups that were 20–29, 45–54, and 65 and over in 1964 foreigners represent a smaller than average share, probably reflecting war casualties and education completed at a later age. Germans and Austrians are heavily concentrated in the group 55–64 years old in 1964, suggesting that a great share of scientists from these countries may have been victims of a brain push.     

Measuring efficiency in the presence of head-to-head competition

We develop a new DEA model that measures organizational efficiency in the presence of head-to-head competition. Our model differs from existing DEA models that ignore competition (or any other form of interaction) among the organizations under analysis. The model assumes that organizations deploy inputs for the explicit purpose of increasing its own outputs while reducing the outputs of its competitors. We apply this model to the 2002, 2004, and 2006 political campaigns in New York State for the US. House of Representatives in which candidates spent money to increase the number of votes that they received and decrease the number of votes that their opponents received. We show that campaign inefficiency can alter the outcome of an election. Specifically, a loser would have won in six of the 57 races had he or she been efficient. We also show that incumbents are more likely to spend inefficiently than are challengers. Overall, inefficiency accounts for less than 5% of campaign funding but a loss of about 9% in votes received. We find evidence that campaign efficiency has increased since the passage of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002, known widely as the McCain-Feingold Act.