Trip end models of local rail demand in England and Wales

This paper details models which have been developed to forecast the total number of trips made from local rail stations in England and Wales over a one year period. The use of multiple linear regression and geographically weighted regression in calibration are compared, with both explaining over 75% of the variation in the observed data. The latter technique has not previously been used in rail demand modelling, and allows significant spatial variations in the effect of independent variables to be identified and mapped. A number of catchment definition methods are investigated, as is the inclusion of a wide range of demographic and service related explanatory variables. The models developed are used to forecast usage at stations on the recently opened Ebbw Vale branch line in South Wales and these predictions are compared to initial usage figures.     

Knowlege networks for innovation in small Scottish software firms

This paper examines the emergence of small indigenous software companies in Scotland, focusing on the strengths and weaknesses of the region's socio-economic infrastructure as a foundation for innovative new business ventures. Following a brief review of some of the accepted wisdom on high-tech start-ups and regional economic development the paper provides some background information on the Scottish region, comparing new firms in the software industry with the foreign multinationals that dominate the local IT industry. A framework - the ‘sociotechnical constituencies’ approach - is then proposed that allows the author to examine networks of specialist knowledge that underlie new business development. Agglomeration effects and the influence of ‘clusters’ of complementary types of knowledge, expertise and innovative competencies at the regional level are at the heart of the analysis. The framework is applied to a sample of local firms, looking at how ‘learning’ via sociotechnical networks underlies their evolution. Policy-makers' attempts to boost the region's new business birth rate and promote the hoped-for ‘silicon glen’ effect are viewed in the light of the study's findings.     

Jousting with Malthus’ ghost: Environment and conflict after the cold war

G. Baechler, Violence through Environmental Discrimination: Causes, Rwanda Arena, and Conflict Model, Dordrecht: Kluwer 1999.

A. Carius and K.M. Lietzmann (eds), Environmental Change and Security: A European Perspective, Berlin: Springer 1999.

T. Homer Dixon, Environment, Scarcity and Violence, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press 1999.

K.M. Lietzmann and G.D. Vest (eds), Environment and Security in an International Context, Bonn: North Atlantic Treaty Organization Committee on the Challenges of Modern Society 1999, Report No. 232.

S.C. Lonergan (ed.), Environmental Change, Adaptation and Security, Dordrecht, Kluwer 1999.

L. Ohlsson, Environment, Scarcity and Conflict: A Study of Malthusian Concerns, Department of Peace and Development Research, Goteburg University 1999.

M. Suliman (ed.), Ecology, Politics and Violent Conflict, London: Zed 1999.     

The demand for Indonesian narrow money: long-run equilibrium,error correction and forward-looking behaviour

Since the 1960s, the banking and financial sector has been at the forefront of the Indonesian development strategy. Thus in order to gain an understanding of the problems and opportunities facing Indonesia, it is essential to understand the workings of the monetary sector of the economy. The aim of this paper is to analyse the narrow component of money demand, using modern econometric techniques. But the major innovation of the paper (in the context of a developing country) is the use of an explicit forward-looking model. This approach, the consequence of financially sophisticated behaviour on the part of Indonesian agents, has significant policy implications. One of these is that announced changes in policy, if credible, will lead to a more rapid response from the private sector than if agents were purely backward looking. This may make the operation of monetary (and other) policy more effective than would otherwise be the case.     

Landscape Sensitivity and Tourism Development

The paper argues that carrying capacity is not the most effective way to analyse the relationship between the 'natural' environment and tourism pressure. Rather that concepts embedded within geomorphology, namely 'lag time', 'environmental thresholds' and 'dynamic metastable equilibrium' may provide a better approach to examine feedback between tourism and the environment. This could also provide the conceptual framework for the integration of the natural and social sciences in the study of tourism impacts, and the mechanism for truly sustainable development. The paper contends that the identification and management of threshold events and the use of base-line data on time scales of 10² to 10³ years should be at the centre of the decision-making process. The paper warns against the use of 'limits of acceptable change' as a way of managing the interplay between tourism and the environment. The relationship between shoreline management and tourism development is used to illustrate the arguments presented.     

Customer Satisfaction in Retail Banking

Professional services firms (PSFs) engaged in international operations present a unique challenge for governments. They directly and indirectly affect governmental policies and the agencies that enforce these policies through policy development, problem solving, and implementation. Yet, governments that seek to advance rational, forward thinking public policy have little, if any, regulatory control over the input and influence of these professional experts. International professional service firms face an increasingly competitive marketplace and complex challenges that demand skill sets that are markedly different from those characteristically required of consumer service companies. This study identifies the qualities of the best performing PSFs that engage clients worldwide. Implications are discussed for governments to ensure the greater public good.     

Market entry in japan—Some problems and solutions 1

Japan is recognised as a major competitor in world markets but is less well‐known as an attractive market in its own right. This paper proposes that with the right strategies it is possible to successfully penetrate the difficult Japanese market. Problems and opportunities presented by the market are discussed, and some of the findings of a survey of Japanese and German managers in Japan and German‐based managers are reviewed. The paper covers the survey findings on market characteristics, barriers to entry, information requirements, factors contributing to success and methods of market entry. German and UK sources of information and advice on the Japanese market are given for those interested in pursuing the matter further.     

Challenges for land system science

While considerable progress has been made in understanding land use change, land system science continues to face a number of grand challenges. This paper discusses these challenges with a focus on empirical land system studies, land system modelling and the analysis of future visions of land system change. Contemporary landscapes are contingent outcomes of past and present patterns, processes and decisions. Thus, empirical analysis of past and present land-use change has an important role in providing insights into the socio-economic and ecological processes that shape land use transitions. This is especially important with respect to gradual versus rapid land system dynamics and in understanding changes in land use intensity. Combining the strengths of empirical analysis with multi-scale modelling will lead to new insights into the processes driving land system change. New modelling methods that combine complex systems thinking at a local level with macro-level economic analysis of the land system would reconcile the multi-scale dynamics currently encapsulated in bottom-up and top-down modelling approaches. Developments in land use futures analysis could focus on integrating explorative scenarios that reflect possible outcomes with normative visions that identify desired outcomes. Such an approach would benefit from the broad and in-depth involvement of stakeholders in order to link scientific findings to political and societal decision-making culminating in a set of key choices and consequences. Land system models have an important role in supporting future land use policy, but model outputs require scientific interpretation rather than being presented as predictions. The future of land system science is strongly dependent on the research community's capacity to bring together the elements of research discussed in the paper, via empirical data collection and analysis of observed processes, computer simulation across scale levels and futures analysis of alternative, normative visions through stakeholder engagement.     

Revealing information in auctions: the allocation effect

When there are two bidders, releasing independent information in an English auction with private values makes the seller worse off. However, this is no longer true with more bidders: when there is enough competition, revelation benefits the auctioneer. In three examples the dividing case is shown to be three bidders. This allocation effect applies to other standard auctions and parallels the bundling decision in a multi-unit auction. I would like to thank Jeremy Bulow, Willie Fuchs, Paul Klemperer, Rob McMillan, Phil Reny, Jeff Zwiebel and especially Andy Skrzypacz. I also grateful to two referees and an Associate Editor for a number of helpful comments.